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康冠科技(001308):自主品牌快速成长 海外ODM盈利仍有压力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 06:33
Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 10.78 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, and net profit at 503 million yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to intensified competition in the North American TV OEM market, leading the company to reduce orders [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - For Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 3.845 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 119 million yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year [1] - The company's smart TV revenue decreased by 17% year-on-year, with shipment volume down 12% due to increased uncertainty in the export trade environment [1] Competitive Landscape - The North American TV OEM market has become increasingly competitive since 2024, impacting profitability despite new customer acquisitions [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 11.6%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising storage chip prices affecting costs [1] Innovation and Growth - The company's innovative display business saw a revenue increase of 37% year-on-year, with shipment volume up 42% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company is investing in its own brand development and marketing, reflected in an increase in sales and R&D expense ratios to 3.3% and 4.3%, respectively [2] Future Outlook - The company possesses an efficient and complete display industry supply chain, with strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities, which may help in reshaping its growth trajectory through brand development and new display products [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure in the traditional TV OEM business, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 19.8% and 23.7%, respectively, to 790 million yuan and 890 million yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20.5x for 2025 and 18.2x for 2026, with a target price adjustment of 9.8% down to 26.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 15.4% [4]