2025 年 10 月 30 日 公司研究 Q3 归母净利润环比小幅改善，静待炼化景气修复 ——中国石化（600028.SH/0386.HK）2025 年三季报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：5.52 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：4.22 港元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 1211.78 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 6689.00 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.25/6.78 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 1.09% | 要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入 21134 亿元，同比-10.7%，实现归母净利润 300 亿元，同比-32. ...

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec (00386) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 5% following the release of its profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating a substantial year-on-year decrease in net profit due to various market pressures [1]. Financial Performance - Sinopec expects to achieve a net profit of 20.1 billion to 21.6 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7% [1]. - For the second quarter, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.8 billion to 8.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 52.1% to 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 37.2% to 48.5% [1]. Market Influences - The decline in profits is primarily attributed to a sharp drop in international oil prices, ongoing competition in the oil and petrochemical markets, and low margins in the chemical market [1]. - Everbright Securities has revised its profit forecasts for Sinopec for 2025 to 2027, expecting net profits of 45.3 billion (down 15.4%), 55.5 billion (down 3.1%), and 66.2 billion (down 7.6%) RMB, respectively [1]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the company is committed to long-term strategies, focusing on the development of new energy and new materials businesses [1]. - As the overall chemical market improves and new production capacities come online, the company's performance is expected to strengthen, leading to a positive long-term growth outlook [1].