Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic cotton market, with over half of the cotton picked, the yield per unit in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, leading to a downward adjustment of the new cotton production estimate. If there is no situation of the Sino - US negotiation failure and a 100% tariff increase, the previous low of 13,155 yuan/ton may become a temporary low. In the international market, due to the lack of USDA data, the market focuses on the progress of Sino - US negotiations. If the negotiation achieves phased results, cotton consumption may improve significantly [1][22]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In October, Zhengzhou cotton futures ended the previous downward trend and prices stabilized and rebounded. The purchase price of seed cotton increased, and the expectation of a bumper harvest was adjusted. The optimistic prospect of Sino - US negotiations also provided support. In the international cotton market, prices fluctuated at a low level. Due to the government shutdown, USDA data was suspended, and market sentiment was cautious. The cotton price stabilized after the trade situation turned optimistic [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis - **New cotton listing situation**: By October 15, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 57.5% and the sales progress was 40.1%, 5.6 and 11.9 percentage points faster than last year respectively. The quality of cotton in northern Xinjiang was affected by the weather, and there was a possibility of a downward adjustment of the production estimate in southern Xinjiang. The purchase price of lint cotton in northern Xinjiang was around 6.1 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang it was around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg, with significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market demand**: As of October 17, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 48.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, and that of weaving enterprises was 49.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points. The increase in operating rate was small, and the pre - sale of cotton this year had an overdraft effect on demand. The finished product inventory of downstream enterprises was slightly higher but generally controllable [9][11]. - **Warehouse receipt registration**: As of now, except for two local cotton warehouse receipts in Shandong Heze and ten in Jiangsu Yinlong, no 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipts have appeared in the delivery warehouses inside and outside Xinjiang [16]. 3. International Market Analysis - **Latest negotiation dynamics**: In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes have escalated multiple times. On October 18, high - level Sino - US communication took place, reaching a consensus on "holding a new round of offline consultations as soon as possible". From October 24 - 27, both sides went to Malaysia for negotiations [20]. - **Impact on the market**: In the short term, the signal of "restarting consultations" has raised optimistic expectations in the cotton market. If the US fulfills its May commitment, China's textile and clothing exports to the US will see a cost reduction of about 20%, and cotton consumption is expected to increase by about 300,000 tons. However, if no consensus is reached before November and the 100% tariff threat is implemented, it will impact the cotton market, and the ICE cotton price may fall to 60 cents/pound [21].