新消费估值切换行情

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重视新消费估值切换行情,出口链补库有望将至
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-17 06:05
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the new consumption valuation switch and anticipates a recovery in the export supply chain [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, gold and jewelry, electric two-wheelers, cross-border e-commerce, pets, IP retail, maternal and child products, e-commerce, electrical lighting, smart imaging, home furnishings, and tools, each with specific investment recommendations [2][3][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Recent price increases in overseas pulp markets are stabilizing domestic paper prices, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices rising by 1.1% and 5.6% respectively from July lows [2] - Recommendations include companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Shares, and Nine Dragons Paper [2] Exports - Expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to a recovery in the export supply chain, with a potential bottom reversal in August [2] - Suggested companies include Jiangxin Home, Yongyi Shares, and others [2] New Tobacco - Stricter regulations in the U.S. are expected to accelerate the recovery of compliant markets, with companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong recommended [2] Gold and Jewelry - Anticipated price increases from Lao Pu Gold are expected to enhance profitability and stimulate terminal sales [3] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook [3] Electric Two-Wheelers - Strong terminal demand is noted, with sales expected to exceed 200,000 units for Yadea Holdings in July [3] - Companies to watch include Yadea Holdings and Aima Technology [3] Cross-Border E-Commerce - A profit warning from Aoki Holdings indicates challenges due to tariff adjustments and rising logistics costs, but recovery is expected once tariffs stabilize [3] - Recommended companies include Anker Innovations and Zhiou Technology [3] Pets - Guibao Pet's stock incentive plan indicates strong brand performance, with significant sales growth for its brands [3] - Companies to focus on include Petty Holdings and Guibao Pet [3] IP Retail - Pop Mart is entering a new product launch cycle, collaborating with celebrities to enhance brand engagement [4] - Recommended companies include Pop Mart and Miniso [4] Maternal and Child Products - The acquisition of Silk Domain by Kidswant is expected to enhance market positioning and operational efficiency [5] - Companies to watch include Kidswant and Goodbaby International [5] E-Commerce - Huitongda Network is leveraging AI to enhance retail efficiency in lower-tier markets [5] - Recommended company includes Huitongda Network [5] Electrical Lighting - Opple Lighting is expanding its B-end business, with a trend of price increases in LED packaging [6] - Companies to focus on include Bull Group and Opple Lighting [6] Smart Imaging - The launch of the Antigravity A1 drone by Yingshi Innovation is expected to redefine consumer drone experiences [6] - Companies to watch include Yingshi Innovation [6] Home Furnishings - The continuation of national subsidies is supporting furniture retail growth despite pressures in the real estate sector [6] - Recommended companies include Xilinmen and Mousse [6] Tools - The easing of U.S. tariff threats is expected to benefit the tools sector, with a potential upturn starting in Q3 2025 [6] - Companies to focus on include Juxing Technology and Quan Feng Holdings [6]