消费回落，生产改善 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 41 期） 经济从假期脉冲转向常态增长，消费回落，生产普遍改善，出口运价分化。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 | 1. | 周度高频数据速览 3 | | --- | --- | | | 消费：节后季节性回落 3 1.1. | | | 1.2. 投资：地产小幅回暖 4 | | | 1.3. 进出口：出口运价分化 5 | | | 1.4. 生产：多数回升 6 | | | 库存：表现分化 7 1.5. | | | 1.6. 物价：工业品价格回落 7 | | | 1.7. 流动性：总体平稳 8 | | 2. | 本周重点数据日历 9 | | 3. | 风险提示 9 | 宏观周报 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.19 [Table_Report] 2025-10-20 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，商品消费小幅回落，服务消费在假 期脉冲式增长后逐步回归常态。投资方面，在新型政策性金融工具 与地方政府 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 重视港股新消费估值切换，稳健布局传统龙头 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 重视港股新消费估值切换，稳健布局传统龙 头 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮箱：luyaning@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 造纸：ummar文化纸企稳，静待旺季到来。 y] ] UPM 宣布其乌拉圭 Fray ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.39% and trading volume decreasing by 4.76% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance Summary - **Coal**: Slight increase of 0.12% with a transaction amount of 165.48 billion yuan, led by Antai Group which rose by 10.00% [1] - **Banking**: Minor decrease of 0.04% with a transaction amount of 302.99 billion yuan, led by Shanghai Bank which fell by 0.83% [1] - **Steel**: Decrease of 0.09% with a transaction amount of 133.07 billion yuan, led by Wujin Stainless Steel which dropped by 7.73% [1] - **Transportation**: Decrease of 0.11% with a transaction amount of 258.60 billion yuan, led by Pulutong which fell by 3.36% [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Decrease of 0.25% with a transaction amount of 119.79 billion yuan, led by Yingfeng Shares which dropped by 9.99% [1] - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Decrease of 0.29% with a transaction amount of 83.04 billion yuan, led by Compton which fell by 3.19% [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: Decrease of 0.45% with a transaction amount of 139.82 billion yuan, led by Aonong Biological which dropped by 4.66% [1] - **Real Estate**: Decrease of 0.52% with a transaction amount of 213.60 billion yuan, led by Wolong New Energy which fell by 7.80% [1] - **Utilities**: Decrease of 0.52% with a transaction amount of 302.04 billion yuan, led by *ST Lingda which dropped by 13.20% [1] - **Construction and Decoration**: Decrease of 0.75% with a transaction amount of 278.81 billion yuan, led by Kexin Development which fell by 8.15% [1] - **Home Appliances**: Decrease of 0.79% with a transaction amount of 217.37 billion yuan, led by Greer which dropped by 6.72% [1] - **Food and Beverage**: Decrease of 0.86% with a transaction amount of 194.67 billion yuan, led by Huaiqi Mountain which fell by 6.44% [1] - **Environmental Protection**: Decrease of 0.92% with a transaction amount of 140.79 billion yuan, led by Science which dropped by 6.68% [1] - **Retail**: Decrease of 0.97% with a transaction amount of 173.43 billion yuan, led by Ruoyu Chen which fell by 9.98% [1] - **Social Services**: Decrease of 1.07% with a transaction amount of 89.87 billion yuan, led by Chuangye Heima which dropped by 5.28% [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: Decrease of 1.12% with a transaction amount of 135.66 billion yuan, led by Songyang Resources which fell by 10.02% [1] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biology**: Decrease of 1.16% with a transaction amount of 845.22 billion yuan, led by Warner Pharmaceuticals which dropped by 7.67% [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: Decrease of 1.21% with a transaction amount of 618.91 billion yuan, led by Xinong Shares which fell by 8.88% [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Decrease of 1.24% with a transaction amount of 1149.11 billion yuan, led by Galaxy Magnetics which dropped by 7.14% [1] - **Telecommunications**: Decrease of 1.28% with a transaction amount of 806.90 billion yuan, led by Shijia Photon which fell by 17.59% [1] - **Non-bank Financials**: Decrease of 1.39% with a transaction amount of 491.74 billion yuan, led by Hainan Huatie which dropped by 6.17% [1] - **Building Materials**: Decrease of 1.66% with a transaction amount of 94.02 billion yuan, led by Yaopi Glass which fell by 7.82% [1] - **Media**: Decrease of 1.68% with a transaction amount of 263.96 billion yuan, led by Vision China which dropped by 9.93% [1] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: Decrease of 1.76% with a transaction amount of 33.94 billion yuan, led by Baiya Shares which fell by 4.98% [1] - **Computers**: Decrease of 2.38% with a transaction amount of 1005.18 billion yuan, led by Kaipu Cloud which dropped by 11.94% [1] - **Comprehensive**: Decrease of 2.42% with a transaction amount of 27.84 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang which fell by 4.70% [1] - **Defense and Military Industry**: Decrease of 2.55% with a transaction amount of 387.73 billion yuan, led by Hangyu Technology which dropped by 8.38% [1] - **Machinery and Equipment**: Decrease of 2.68% with a transaction amount of 940.87 billion yuan, led by Yingweike which fell by 10.00% [1] - **Automobiles**: Decrease of 2.69% with a transaction amount of 775.95 billion yuan, led by Tianpu Shares which dropped by 10.00% [1] - **Electronics**: Decrease of 3.19% with a transaction amount of 2631.19 billion yuan, led by Nanya New Materials which fell by 16.26% [1] - **Electric Power Equipment**: Decrease of 3.79% with a transaction amount of 1881.52 billion yuan, led by Shenghong Shares which dropped by 11.80% [1]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.4%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were coal (+2.4%), banking (+1.4%), food and beverage (+1.0%), communication (+0.7%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-2.1%), non-ferrous metals (-2.1%), building materials (-1.9%), basic chemicals (-1.8%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.6%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 19,311 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.82 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value: -0.4%), which was lower than market expectations and prior forecasts (Wind consensus expectation: -0.1%). The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1% (previous value: 0%) [5] - The market anticipates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate is likely to turn positive quickly [5] - The M1-M2 gap is narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the migration of household deposits. In September, fiscal spending exceeded revenue, leading to an increase in both household and corporate deposits [6] - The forecast for excess household savings from 2020 to September 2025 is expected to decrease to 2.89 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.01 trillion yuan), with a notable slowdown in the decline of excess savings in September [6] Light Industry Strategy Report - For Q4 2025, the report emphasizes three main lines: 1) The new consumption sector continues to thrive, with potential valuation shifts for growth stocks. 2) Quality manufacturing and traditional consumption stocks at the bottom of the cycle are expected to see upward opportunities, along with high dividend value. 3) The overseas market is showing gradual improvement after tariff stabilization [8] - The new consumption sector is expected to maintain strong growth, with significant differentiation among companies. The international tobacco giants are continuing to grow, and the pet industry is anticipated to remain highly competitive during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - Quality manufacturing is expected to benefit from price increases in metal cans and favorable conditions in the paper and plastic packaging sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability in Q4 [9]

公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入2.29亿元，同比下降3.76%，实现净利 润-182.34万元，同比下降115.42%，基本每股收益为-0.0200元。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 美之高股价创出历史新高，截至9:35，该股上涨22.81%，股价报28.00元，成交量159.70万股，成交金额 4196.83万元，换手率2.83%，该股最新A股总市值达25.11亿元，该股A股流通市值15.78亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，美之高所属的轻工制造行业，目前整体涨幅为0.14%，行业内，目前股价上 涨的有48只，涨幅居前的有美之高、德力股份、华源控股等，涨幅分别为22.81%、9.98%、5.86%。股 价下跌的有110只，跌幅居前的有海鸥住工、英联股份、玉马科技等，跌幅分别为4.40%、2.96%、 2.96%。 两融数据显示，该股最新（10月15日）两融余额为334.70万元，其中，融资余额为334.70万元，近10日 减少38.04万元，环比下降10.20%。 ...

Core Insights - The light industry in China has shown continuous growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with strengthened market advantages and significantly improved brand competitiveness [1] Group 1: Industry Growth - The number of large-scale light industry enterprises in China has increased from 108,700 in 2020 to 140,000, with an average annual growth rate of 6.4% [3] - The average annual growth rate of enterprise operating income in the light industry is 4.22% [3] - The total export volume of the entire industry has maintained the highest share of national exports for five consecutive years [3] Group 2: Structural Optimization - The proportion of smart home appliances in the light industry has risen from 38% to 62% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - The number of "lighthouse factories" in the light industry has reached 28, and there are 1,321 national-level green factories [5] Group 3: Innovation Capability - Over the past five years, the light industry has established 25 national key laboratories, 44 national engineering research centers, and 214 national-level enterprise technology centers, creating a multi-level innovation platform system [7]

10月15日，A股市场迎来大幅反弹，红利板块走势依旧活跃。"能追牛、能扛熊"的标普A股红利指数领 衔主流红利指数，收涨0.92%二连阳，本月累计涨幅已近3%（截至2025.10.15）。 作为跟踪该指数的标普红利ETF（562060）同样表现强势，劲涨1.2%创新高，收于0.592元，盘中溢价 频频。近期市场波动加剧，资金正加速持续涌入高股息资产，交易所数据显示，标普红利ETF （562060）近5个交易日连续吸金超4000万元，成为慢牛时代备受青睐的布局工具。 标普A股红利指数前十大行业今日全部收涨，其中医药、汽车板块涨幅超2%，机械、轻工制造、家电 板块也均涨超1%。 【标普A股红利指数前十大行业涨跌幅】 | 中信一级行业 | 权重 | 10.15涨跌幅％ | | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 16.58% | 0.61 | | 机械 | 11.02% | 1.88 | | 轻工制造 | 8.68% | 1.25 | | 家电 | 7.20% | 1.44 | | 基础化工 | 6.28% | 0.83 | | 纺织服装 | 5.55% | 1.70 | | 医药 | 4.76% | ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance over different time windows [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the configuration targets [10] 2. Calculate the price change rates for the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the industries based on their price change rates for each time window and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Calculate the average of the three rankings to derive the final RS value: $ RS = \frac{RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}}{3} $ [10] 5. Industries with RS > 90% by the end of April are identified as potential leading industries for the year [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified key annual industry trends, such as high dividend, resource products, exports, and AI, which were validated by market performance throughout the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This framework provides two industry rotation strategies based on market conditions: 1. High sentiment + strong trend, avoiding high crowding (aggressive strategy) 2. Strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low sentiment (conservative strategy) [6][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate industries based on three dimensions: sentiment, trend, and crowding [6][14] 2. Use sentiment as the core metric for the aggressive strategy, with crowding as a risk control factor [14] 3. Use trend as the core metric for the conservative strategy, avoiding low-sentiment industries [14] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on their scores in the three dimensions [6][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework is effective in adapting to different market conditions and has shown strong performance in historical backtests [6][14] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for recovery by analyzing sectors in distress or those with low inventory pressure and high analyst optimism [24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify industries currently in distress or recovering from past distress [24] 2. Focus on sectors with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [24] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures recovery opportunities in industries undergoing inventory restocking cycles, providing significant absolute and relative returns [24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Industries with RS > 90% by April 2024 included coal, utilities, home appliances, banking, petrochemicals, communication, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automotive [10] - These industries showed strong performance, with key themes being high dividends, resource products, exports, and AI [10][12] 2. Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Annualized Return**: 22.1% (long-only portfolio) [14] - **Excess Return**: 13.8% (annualized) [14] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.51 [14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.0% [14] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 68% [14] - **Performance Highlights**: - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [14] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [14] - 2025 YTD excess return: 2.8% [14] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: - 2023: 17.0% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2024: 15.4% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2025 YTD: 7.8% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Absolute return: - 2023: 13.4% [24] - 2024: 26.5% [24] - 2025 YTD: 26.4% [24] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the overall sentiment of an industry to identify high-growth opportunities [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the sentiment of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by sentiment scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Sentiment is a core metric in the aggressive strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, providing strong signals for high-growth opportunities [14] 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the strength of market trends to identify industries with strong momentum [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the trend of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by trend scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Trend is a core metric in the conservative strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, offering a simple and replicable approach to industry allocation [14] 3. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of crowding in an industry to identify overbought or underbought sectors [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the crowding level of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by crowding scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Crowding is used as a risk control factor in both aggressive and conservative strategies of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework [14] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Sentiment Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Crowding Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth of the domestic consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with a notable performance from Fast Retailing, which reported a revenue of 34,005.39 billion yen for FY2025, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The apparel accessories industry is experiencing a stable growth trajectory, with leading companies like Weixing Co. expected to enhance their market share in overseas markets [8][9] - The retail performance of 361 Degrees shows healthy growth, with a 10% increase in offline retail sales for its main brand in Q3 2025 [11] Market Trends - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in average daily sales across consumption-related industries, with significant growth in digital products and automotive sales [4][5] - In Shanghai, online and offline consumption payments reached 796 billion yuan during the holiday period, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year increase [5] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.6% [5] Company Performance - Fast Retailing's business segments showed varied performance, with Japan's UNIQLO segment achieving a revenue of 10,260 billion yen, up 10.1%, while the overseas UNIQLO segment reported a revenue of 19,102 billion yen, up 11.6% [4] - Weixing Co. reported a revenue of 4.674 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.66% increase, with a net profit of 700 million yuan, up 25.48% [8] - 361 Degrees reported a 20% increase in e-commerce platform retail sales in Q3 2025, indicating a strong online presence [11] Industry Dynamics - The apparel accessories market is projected to grow steadily, with the zipper industry in China being a significant contributor, holding a market size of 455 billion yuan in 2021 [8][9] - The global zipper market is dominated by a few key players, with YKK holding a substantial market share, while Weixing Co. is positioned to increase its share in overseas markets [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and global expansion strategies for companies like YKK and Weixing Co. to maintain competitive advantages [9][10]

（文章来源：证券时报网） Choice统计显示，10月14日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有1613只，下跌个股有3406只，平盘个 股有129只。不含当日上市新股，共有45只个股涨停，9只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要集 中在机械设备、公用事业、电子、轻工制造、有色金属等行业。 ...