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股价持续调整,港股“新消费三姐妹”怎么了?“流量”和“故事”降温,如何从“网红”变“长红”?
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-19 04:55
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector, represented by the "new consumption trio" of Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced significant price corrections due to previous overvaluations and market scrutiny of their business models [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - The "new consumption trio" saw stock price declines of 43%, 39%, and 35% from their peak values as of December 18 [1] - High valuations were noted, with Lao Pu Gold's dynamic P/E ratio exceeding 142 times and Pop Mart reaching 113 times, compared to Disney and LVMH's P/E ratios of 20-40 times and 20 times, respectively [2] - The market's correction is attributed to a reassessment of valuation bubbles and skepticism regarding the sustainability of their business models [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Environment - Increased global economic uncertainty has led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending power, particularly affecting non-essential goods [3] - Consumers are becoming more cautious, prioritizing cost-effectiveness, which poses challenges for brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold that target trend-driven and mid-to-high-end markets [3] - The competitive landscape for Mixue Group in the tea beverage market is intensifying, with risks of market share dilution due to easily replicable business models [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies and Future Outlook - Despite stock price declines, the fundamentals of the "new consumption trio" remain strong, with Mixue Group reporting a revenue growth of 39.3% and a net profit increase of 44.1% in the first half of the year [4] - The companies are focusing on creating a "second growth curve" through international expansion, supply chain innovation, and brand value enhancement [4][5] - Mixue Group's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 global stores, indicating rapid market penetration for affordable coffee in China [4][5] Group 4: Brand and Cultural Strategy - The "new consumption trio" is urged to transition from a focus on products to building brand culture and emotional connections with consumers [7][8] - Companies are encouraged to innovate continuously across product development, marketing, and service models to maintain competitiveness [8] - Strong supply chain management is essential for enhancing operational efficiency and product quality, which will bolster resilience against market fluctuations [8]