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欧洲大停电“镜鉴”:中国该如何防范、化解大停电风险?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-08 03:08
Group 1 - The unprecedented power outage in Europe has raised alarms about global energy security, prompting discussions on how China can prevent similar incidents [1] - The State Grid of China is actively researching ways to enhance grid resilience and is focusing on improving stability management, predictive capabilities for renewable energy, and fault defense mechanisms [1][3] - The transition of China's power system is significant, with a notable increase in renewable energy sources leading to changes in grid characteristics and operational theories [1][3] Group 2 - A recent large-scale power outage in Spain, Portugal, and southern France affected over 50 million people, highlighting the risks associated with high proportions of renewable energy in the grid [2] - The investigation into the outage identified three main causes: insufficient voltage regulation, voltage fluctuations, and improper disconnection of power plants, with blame being shared between grid operators and power plants [2] - In 2023, Portugal generated 61% of its electricity from renewable sources, while Spain's renewable energy generation reached 56% of total consumption in 2024, indicating a trend towards higher renewable energy integration [2] Group 3 - The increasing integration of renewable energy sources like wind and solar is causing significant challenges in frequency and voltage regulation, raising the risk of grid failures and large-scale outages [3][4] - As of now, renewable energy installations in the State Grid's operational area exceed 1,325 GW, accounting for 46.9% of total capacity, while in the Southern Grid, renewable capacity is approaching 50% [3][4] - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to enhance the safety management of renewable energy integration into the grid, addressing the challenges posed by the rapid increase in renewable energy installations [3][4] Group 4 - The characteristics of the new power system, defined by high proportions of renewable energy and power electronic devices, pose risks to grid stability due to the lack of inertia and voltage support from renewable sources [4][6] - Accurate forecasting of renewable energy output is essential for mitigating the rapid changes in voltage and frequency caused by high renewable penetration [4][6] Group 5 - To effectively integrate high levels of renewable energy, the flexibility of the power system must be improved, which includes enhancing the capabilities of coal-fired power plants and developing pumped storage hydropower [7][8] - As of the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of flexible power sources in China was approximately 496 GW, representing only 16.9% of total capacity, which is below the target of 24% by 2025 [8] - Pumped storage hydropower is expected to reach a total capacity of around 66 GW by the end of 2025, but its growth is limited by geographical constraints and long construction cycles [8][9] Group 6 - Demand-side response capabilities are crucial for managing power supply and demand balance, particularly during peak load periods, and have been recognized as a key element in the new power system [11][12] - The demand-side response can help alleviate peak loads, such as those caused by air conditioning, which accounted for 40% of peak load in Zhejiang province during extreme heat [11][12] - Industries like textiles, steel, and aluminum have significant demand-side flexibility, with potential adjustable loads reaching up to 35% and 20% respectively, indicating opportunities for enhancing grid resilience [15]