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国盛证券:26年新能源竞价区域分化明显 建议关注储能板块的投资价值
智通财经网· 2025-12-10 05:59
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities highlights significant regional differentiation in the bidding results for new energy projects in 2026, with East and North China showing better electricity prices compared to the West and South, and wind power prices outperforming solar power prices [1] Group 1: Bidding Results and Regional Differentiation - As of December 8, 2023, 19 provinces have announced their bidding results for new energy projects, with Shandong being the first on September 9, followed by other provinces in subsequent months. The differences in resource endowments, consumption capacity, and grid structures have led to notable variations in policy timing and price levels across regions [1] - The highest clearing price is in Shanghai at 0.4155 yuan/kWh, while the lowest is in Gansu at 0.1954 yuan/kWh. Wind power prices are generally higher than solar power prices, with the largest price difference observed in Shandong, where wind power is priced at 0.3190 yuan/kWh compared to solar at 0.2250 yuan/kWh, a difference of 0.094 yuan/kWh [2] - The bidding results indicate that regions like Gansu, Xinjiang, and Heilongjiang have fully utilized their mechanism electricity quotas, while Shanghai and Tianjin have lower utilization rates of 24% and 23%, respectively, with most provinces exceeding 50% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The East China region has a strong electricity demand but limited new energy development resources, leading to higher overall price levels. The Southern region has a mature market structure with full coverage of the electricity spot market across five provinces [3] - The Northwest region exhibits characteristics of "resource highlands and price lowlands," with Gansu's wind and solar clearing prices being the lowest nationally. The North China region has a detailed policy design, with rational competition for incremental projects [3] - The Southwest region benefits from abundant resources and multi-energy complementarity, supporting the volatility of wind and solar power, while the Northeast region's policy balances the transition between existing and new projects, resulting in relatively low bidding prices [3]