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电动重卡:政策+市场助理新能源重卡渗透率
数说新能源· 2025-12-12 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The electric heavy-duty truck (EDT) is an irreversible trend in the industry, driven by economic factors, environmental pressures, and competitive dynamics, rather than solely relying on subsidies [1] Current Market Performance and Driving Factors - Sales of electric heavy-duty trucks are experiencing explosive growth, with a significant increase in penetration rates [2] - By November 2025, electric heavy-duty truck sales are expected to exceed 161,000 units, with an annual forecast of 180,000 units, marking a historic breakthrough [2] - The overall penetration rate of electric heavy-duty trucks in the industry is approximately 23%-25%, with around 30% in the core tractor segment [2] - The operational cost of electric heavy-duty trucks is significantly lower, saving about 1 yuan per kilometer compared to diesel trucks [2] - The "18-month honeymoon period" allows transporters to benefit from lower operational costs while still charging traditional rates, but this window is closing [2] Technology Iteration and Customer Choices - The technology for electric heavy-duty trucks is rapidly evolving, with battery capacities increasing from 283 kWh two years ago to 600 kWh this year [2] - Customers face a dilemma between seizing current policy and price advantages and concerns over rapid technological obsolescence [3] - Despite concerns, customer enthusiasm for purchasing remains high due to substantial economic benefits [4]