Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive developments in the automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, driven by government policies and market demand, indicating a potential growth trajectory for the industry. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - Lithium salt manufacturers are reluctant to sell, leading to continuous price increases, with hydroxide lithium prices being linked to carbonate lithium prices, supporting high price levels [2] - The current supply-demand situation is tight, with expectations that lithium hydroxide prices will remain stable in the short term [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Securities believes a new car cycle has begun, with market demand expected to be released due to supply optimization and policy stimulation, projecting retail sales of passenger cars to reach 24.35 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, which includes a 1% subsidy for household vehicles, aimed at reducing purchase costs and boosting sales [3] Group 3: Policy Developments - Shanghai is accelerating the application of industrial robots in key sectors such as electronics, automotive, and equipment, to enhance production efficiency and safety [5][6] - Henan Province is promoting the integration and cluster development of strategic emerging industries, focusing on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles [7] - Heilongjiang Province has introduced a tiered subsidy policy for vehicle replacement, with varying amounts based on the price of new vehicles, providing additional incentives for consumers [8] Group 4: Industry News - From August 1 to 17, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 866,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 13.611 million units, up 10% [9] - The China Automobile Circulation Association reported that the operating conditions of independent new energy vehicle dealers were better than those of traditional fuel vehicle brands, with a profitability rate of 42.9% for new energy brands compared to 25.6% for traditional brands [10] Group 5: Company Developments - Zhiji Auto launched its L4-level Robotaxi service in Shanghai, connecting the Shanghai International Tourism Resort with Pudong International Airport [12] - Xiaomi Group reported a revenue of 21.3 billion yuan for its smart electric vehicle and AI segment in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 26.4% [13] - XPeng Motors announced a total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with a gross margin of 17.3% [14] - NIO's chairman Li Bin stated that the company has invested over 18 billion yuan in charging and battery swap infrastructure over the past decade, with more than 8,100 stations built nationwide [15]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结：八月第二周交强险42.9万辆，环比上周/上月周度+14.4%/+10.5%。 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+6.2%) > SW乘用车(+4.9%) >SW汽车零部件(+4.8%) >SW汽车（+4.7%）> SW商用载客车(+2.74%) >SW摩托车及其他(+2.71%) 。本周已覆盖标的 蔚来-SW，松原安全，拓普集团，小鹏汽车-W，福耀玻璃涨幅前五。 本周团队研究成果： 外发华阳集团、松原安全、小鹏汽车、零跑汽车、继峰股份、北汽蓝谷中报点评，外发客车8 月月报。 本周行业核心变化： 本周汽车A-H股表现都不错，各个子版块都有不同幅度反弹，其中商用载货车最佳。本周核心 变化：8月第二周交强险数据符合预期。东风H股私有化；小鹏Q2业绩符合预期；蔚来新ES8定 价超预期；长安Q2业绩略低于预期；长城坦克/哈弗新车订单亮眼；福耀Q2业绩超出预期 价超预期；长安Q2业绩略低于预期；长城坦克/哈弗新车订单亮眼；福耀Q2业绩超出预期。 当前时点汽车板块如何配置？ 我们认为汽车行业或又进入了新的十字路口阶段：汽车电动化红利进入尾声，汽车智能化正 在"黎 ...

乘用车 25Q2 业绩亮眼 自主高端化提速 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 周度数据：2025 年 8 月第 3 周（8.11-8.17）乘用车销量 43.7 万辆，同比 +8.2%，环比+14.2%；新能源乘用车销量 24.8 万辆，同比+15.1%，环比+13.0%； 新能源渗透率 56.7%，环比-0.6pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现强于市场。本周（8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日）A 股 汽车板块上涨 7.2%，在申万子行业中排名第 6 位，表现强于沪深 300（4.8%）。 细分板块中，商用载货车、汽车零部件、乘用车、摩托车及其他、汽车服务、商 用载客车分别上涨 8.7%、7.7%、6.9%、6.1%、3.7%、3.1%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、比亚 迪、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 乘用车企业 25Q2 业绩表现亮眼 自主高端化催化密集。本周，新势力整车 催化密集，小米、小鹏、零跑发布 25Q2 业绩，小米汽车业务毛利率从 Q1 的 23.2%提升至 26.4%，经营亏损从 5 亿元收窄至 3 亿元， ...

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to create a new market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [4]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Cycle - Timing: The bus industry aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation" and is a strong advocate of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of international experience to follow national strategies and promote Chinese manufacturing abroad [4]. - Location: The technology and products of the bus industry have reached world-class standards, with China leading in new energy buses and being competitive in traditional buses in terms of cost-effectiveness and service [4]. - Human Factors: The end of the price war in the domestic market is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook for the Bus Industry - The absence of price wars domestically, an oligopolistic market structure, and higher profit margins in overseas markets for both new energy and traditional buses are expected to drive profitability [5]. - The continuous decline in lithium carbonate costs will further support profitability [5]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from 2015-2017, while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Yutong Bus is highlighted as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.63 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.68 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21% [7]. - King Long Motor is noted as the "fastest improving student," with a significant profit rebound expected, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% [8].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

新能源汽车：7月新能源乘用车批发量达118.1万辆，同比增长24.4%，环比下降4.8%， 新能源渗透率达53.2%，同比+5.0pp。伴随第三批补贴资金下达以及8月改款新车上市来临， 新能源渗透率有望再度提升。相关标的：比亚迪（002594）、吉利汽车（0175.HK）、新泉 股份（603179）、星宇股份（601799）、多利科技（001311）、川环科技（300547）、无锡 振华（605319）。 智能汽车：2025H1我国乘用车市场激光雷达前装搭载交付量达到104.39万颗，同比增长 83.14%，国内汽车智能化继续保持高速发展。相关标的：1）整车：小鹏汽车 （9868.HK）、理想汽车（2015.HK）；2）零部件：禾赛科技（HSAI.O）、速腾聚创 （2498.HK）、地平线机器人（9660.HK）、德赛西威（002920）、华阳集团（002906）、 科博达（603786）、伯特利（603596）、保隆科技（603197）、耐世特（1316.HK）、中鼎 股份（000887）、拓普集团（601689）、沪光股份（605333）、均胜电子（600699）。 西南证券近日发布汽车行业周报：7月乘用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of intelligent driving technology. The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the second half of 2025 [6][12]. Group 1: Weekly Review Summary - In the fifth week of July, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 462,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2% [11]. - The performance ranking of segmented automotive sectors this week is as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+9.6%) > SW automotive parts (+4.5%) > SW automobiles (+2.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (+2.6%) > SW passenger vehicles (-0.7%) > SW commercial freight vehicles (-4.2%) [11][19]. - The top five stocks covered this week include Chunfeng Power, Xinquan Co., Xiaopeng Motors-W, Mingyang Technology, and Hengshuai Co. [11][25]. Group 2: Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng's new P7 will debut on August 6, featuring design, intelligent cockpit, control range, and intelligent driving assistance, with an expected launch in August [5][11]. - The Li Auto i8 has undergone SKU adjustments and price reductions, standardizing to the max version and reducing prices by 10,000 yuan for max and 20,000 yuan for ultra [5][11]. - The new Wanjie M7 has been announced, adopting the latest family design language with a wheelbase of 3030mm, offering five/six-seat versions and EV/EREV energy types [5][11]. Group 3: Market Focus and Configuration - The A-share automotive market performed well this week, while the Hong Kong automotive sector lagged behind the broader market. The motorcycle segment performed the best [7][12]. - The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments, focusing on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A-H/Waichai Power), two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power/Lonxin General), and parts (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Xinquan Co., Jifeng Co.) [12]. - For AI intelligent vehicles, the preference is for Hong Kong stocks (Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) over A-shares (Seres, SAIC Group, BYD) [12]. Group 4: Sales and Forecasts - The total number of passenger vehicles insured this week was 462,000, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 245,000 units, with a penetration rate of 53.1% [47]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a total retail sales volume of 2,369,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48][49]. - The expected sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is 750,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in investment weight towards automotive dividend style configurations for the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 5.0% week-on-week increase in compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles, totaling 462,000 units in the last week of July [2][50]. - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the launch of new models from major players like Xiaopeng and Li Auto, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness [2][3]. - The report anticipates a structural market opportunity as the industry transitions towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with a recommendation to focus on companies leading in AI and robotics innovation [3][54]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 6th in A-shares and 21st in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with motorcycles showing the best performance [7][15]. - The report notes that the SW motorcycle and other segments increased by 9.6%, while the SW passenger vehicle segment decreased by 0.7% [2][16]. Industry Changes - Key changes include the unveiling of Xiaopeng's new P7 model and pricing adjustments for Li Auto's i8, which aims to enhance customer appeal [2][3]. - The report discusses the introduction of new policies to support vehicle scrappage and replacement, which are expected to boost domestic consumption [51][59]. Sales and Forecasts - The report projects a total of 23.69 million passenger vehicles to be sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [51][52]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [52][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocations in sectors benefiting from the automotive dividend, including buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, while also focusing on AI and robotics components [3][54]. - Specific stocks recommended include Spring Power, Yutong Bus, and major players in the electric vehicle market such as Xiaopeng and Li Auto [3][64].

Group 1: Historical Insights - The previous supply-side reform period (2016-2017) saw significant pressure on consumption profits due to insufficient transmission of cost pressures from upstream resources and raw materials, leading to a general decline in profit growth across the consumption sector [1][12][21] - During the 2016-2017 period, despite strong demand-side policies, the ability of the consumption sector to pass on cost increases was limited, resulting in a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1][12][17] - Consumer confidence index rose from 103.7 in December 2015 to 122.6 in December 2017, indicating a strong demand environment during the previous reform [12][17] Group 2: Current "Anti-Internal Competition" Insights - The current "anti-internal competition" policy is expected to impose more stringent constraints on supply, particularly in sectors like automotive and express delivery, which may stabilize prices more quickly compared to the previous reform period [1][21] - The consumption sector is facing a more severe demand-side challenge now, with consumer confidence at low levels and growth relying more on "value-for-money" rather than brand premium pricing [1][21] - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the growth rate significantly slowed from June's 13.3% [1][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the energy and resources sector, coal demand is expected to rise during peak seasons, with July's domestic raw coal production at 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22][23] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline in transaction volume, with July's average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities down 32.3% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year [35][37] - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with strong performance in machinery and equipment exports, and heavy truck sales performing well [5][10]