投资要点 证券研究报告/投资策略 ➢ 资讯要闻 四季度 A 股开门红，商务部加强稀土出口管制 1. 10月9日，A股在10月首个交易日迎来开门红行情，上证指数涨逾50点，突破3900点，创逾10年 新高。整个A股市场超3100只股票上涨，近100只股票涨停。市场成交放量，成交额超2.6万亿元。 2. 10月9日，商务部公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定，境外特定出口经营者在向中国以 外的其他国家和地区出口前，必须获得中国商务部颁发的两用物项出口许可证件；对向境外军事用户 的出口申请及向出口管制管控名单和关注名单所列的进口商和最终用户的出口申请，原则上不予许 可。 宏观策略周报 ➢ 市场概览 本周国内证券市场主要指数表现分化，其中上证指数涨幅最大为0.37%。申万一级行业中，有色金属 涨幅最大为4.44%。 本周市场方面，A 股在国庆中秋长假后迎来 "开门红"，上证指数时隔 10 年重回 3900 点关口之 上，深证成指、科创 50 指数也表现亮眼，有色金属板块因国际金价上涨火热，AI 板块相关个股受 追捧，市场交易活跃。同时，商务部宣布对含中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制，旨在 维护国家安全和 ...

据交强险，今年1-8月重卡累计终端销量为48.6万辆，按照正常季节性年化，全年重卡行业国内销量预 计为72.3万辆，同比增长20.0%。 库存：库存处于健康位置。据商联会，截至25年8月末，重卡行业总库存12.9万辆，同比下降0.03万辆， 环比增加0.3万辆，动态库销比(当月总库存/近3个月终端销量滚动均值)为2.4，处在合理范围。 需求：25年年初以来物流需求有所恢复。据国家统计局，25年8月公路货物周转量单月同比增速为 3.8%;25年1-8月公路货物周转量累计同比增速为3.9%，25年年初以来物流需求有所恢复。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，重卡行业仍在上行周期的起点，25年以旧换新补贴政策范围 扩大有望拉动国内销量加速均值回归，出口暂时增速放缓但海外空间市场广阔。考虑到卡车股当前普遍 估值较低，未来盈利有望跟随销量创新高，卡车股投资价值尚未被充分挖掘。整车该行推荐产品市占率 有阿尔法、出口表现亮眼的中国重汽(03808，000951.SZ)、福田汽车(600166.SH)、一汽解放 (000800.SZ)。 广发证券主要观点如下： 销量：8月重卡批发、终端、出口分别同比+46.7%、+66 ...

西南证券近日发布汽车行业周报：9月1-27日乘用车零售177.6万辆，同比持平，环比增 长12%；今年以来累计零售1654万辆，同比增长8%。9月1-27日，新能源乘用车零售103.9万 辆，同比增长9%，环比增长17%，渗透率58.5%；累计零售860.9万辆，同比增长24%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 新能源汽车：9月1-27日，新能源乘用车零售103.9万辆，同比增长9%，环比增长17%， 渗透率58.5%；累计零售860.9万辆，同比增长24%。相关标的：比亚迪（002594）、吉利汽 车（0175.HK）、新泉股份（603179）、星宇股份（601799）、多利科技（001311）、川环 科技（300547）、无锡振华（605319）。 智能汽车：智能汽车方面，9月29日迎来多项关键进展，技术层面，九识智能全球首发 L4.5级自动驾驶技术，实现无高精地图全域通行、动态调整路径等三大突破，标志行业迈入 规模化商用元年；头部企业方面，华为同步披露乾崑智驾系统已搭载超100万辆车，累计辅 助驾驶里程破50亿公里，并明确2027年L3规模放量的发展路线图；场景落地层面，自贡市 当日开放879公里无人车 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，9月经济总体平稳运行，内需在"金九银十"旺季的带动下边 际回暖，但各行业表现冷热不均。供给侧治理与产业升级先行见效，对应上游资源品与新兴制造业、高 端装备制造业景气度先行占优；需求侧刺激与消费信心修复滞后使得传统原材料、消费板块"旺季不 旺"。展望后续，若财政支出加速、更多稳地产&促消费的需求侧配套支持政策能够落地，则传统原材 料、消费板块景气度有望回暖，行业间分化格局趋于收敛。反之，上游资源品阶段性占优的格局可能持 续。与此同时，受益于国内产业升级、海外制造业修复的制造业方向有望维持较高景气。 国金证券主要观点如下： 9月行业信息总结 回顾9月产销旺季中各行业景气度的变动，整体上旺季氛围仍在，行业间表现分化。其中，上游资源 品、中游新兴&高端设备制造业，旺季成色较浓。相较而言，上游原材料、下游消费板块旺季成色不 足。具体来看：1）上游资源与原材料行业——①上游资源品："反内卷"政策推进与供给约束下煤炭、 工业金属旺季供给收缩、需求增加，价格延续上行，旺季成色最浓。②上游原材料：钢铁、建材在传统 投资链条景气度低位，旺季改善有限。2）中游制造环节——新兴制造业、高端装备 ...

消息面上，根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10.5万辆左右(批 发口径，包含出口和新能源)，环比上涨15%，同比大幅增长约82%。截止到目前，重卡市场已经实现了 六连涨。国泰海通证券指出，随着经济恢复，以及2025年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，该行认为国产重 卡销量有望逐渐回升。重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续 成长。此外随着天然气重卡的发展，行业门槛提升有望带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 中国重汽（000951）(03808)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.02%，报24.32港元，成交额2417.59万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement signed by China North Vehicle Company, Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd., and Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck Group marks the beginning of a new chapter in deep collaboration across multiple fields, aiming for win-win development [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Framework - The three parties aim to establish a long-term and stable strategic partnership, ensuring cooperation through a dedicated mechanism and planning specific operational models for joint projects [3]. - The core objectives of the cooperation include "common development and long-term collaboration," focusing on four major areas: core field synergy, business model innovation, overseas market expansion, and upgrading the scope of cooperation [3]. Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - Core field synergy will enhance business interactions in infrastructure and mining scenarios, deepening collaboration between engineering machinery and heavy truck supply chains to improve overall service capabilities [3]. - Business model innovation will explore diversified models, leveraging the technological and product strengths of the three parties to provide comprehensive solutions that cover both "equipment + services" for various customer needs [3]. - The overseas market expansion will utilize each party's international channels and brand foundations to actively explore overseas aftermarket cooperation, enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese equipment manufacturing brands [3]. Group 3: Future Development and Industry Impact - This collaboration is a significant move for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry to adapt to development trends and integrate advantageous resources [4]. - The three parties will adhere to principles of mutual trust and complementary advantages, deepening cooperation in industry, technology, and market aspects, thereby contributing to the high-quality development of China's infrastructure, mining equipment, and heavy truck industries [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the announcement of the successful bidders for the 2025 bus procurement project by Shaoxing Public Transport Group, with a total bid amount of 90.993 million yuan [1][2][3]. - The project includes the procurement of various electric buses, with specific details on the number and type of buses awarded to different suppliers [1][3]. - The total procurement consists of 24 units of 8-meter pure electric air-conditioned buses from Yutong, 66 units of 7-meter pure electric air-conditioned buses from Xiamen Golden Dragon, and other smaller units from different suppliers [1][3]. Group 2 - The bid amounts for the awarded contracts include 34.146 million yuan for Yutong, 45.936 million yuan for Xiamen Golden Dragon, and smaller amounts for other suppliers [3]. - The announcement includes the names and addresses of the winning suppliers, indicating a diverse range of companies involved in the electric bus sector [3]. - The evaluation committee for the bids consisted of several experts, ensuring a thorough review process for the procurement [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. government will impose a 100% tariff on all imported brand-name or patented drugs starting October 1, 2023, with exemptions for companies building pharmaceutical plants in the U.S. [1] - In 2023, the U.S. imported $203 billion worth of drugs, with 73% coming from Europe, primarily Ireland, Germany, and Switzerland [1] - A report commissioned by the U.S. pharmaceutical industry indicates that a 25% tariff on drug imports could increase U.S. drug costs by nearly $51 billion annually, potentially raising drug prices by up to 12.9% for consumers [1] Group 2 - The U.S. will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks to protect domestic manufacturers from unfair external competition [4] - The five largest sources of imported heavy trucks are Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland, which are considered allies and pose minimal threats to U.S. national security [4] - Tariffs of 50% will be applied to kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related building materials, while a 30% tariff will be imposed on imported upholstered furniture [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned alternative options for potential legal challenges regarding tariff legitimacy, including the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the Commerce Department to investigate imports threatening national security [5] - The Commerce Department has previously initiated investigations under this act for various products, including automobiles, copper, steel, and aluminum [5] - A new investigation was launched on September 2, 2023, covering products such as industrial machinery and medical devices [5]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35% and the ChiNext Index down 0.42%. Sectors such as photolithography machines, storage chips, and CPO experienced significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities emphasizes a focus on resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion as the framework for industry selection. The shift of resource stocks from cyclical to dividend attributes, driven by supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions, is expected to lead to a revaluation of these stocks. The anticipated volatility from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is considered negligible. The key mid-term insight is the globalization of China's manufacturing leaders, which is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements, leading to market capitalization growth that surpasses domestic economic fundamentals [2] - Guojin Securities believes that a bull market driven by the recovery of China's profit fundamentals may be in the making. With the easing of liquidity constraints, there may be a rebound in Hong Kong stocks that experienced stagnation from June to August. Additionally, growth investments are expected to shift from technology-driven to export-oriented. Opportunities in cyclical manufacturing sectors (non-ferrous metals, machinery, chemicals) are anticipated to become the mid-term focus. The recommended sectors include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, lithium batteries, wind power equipment), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [3]

Industry Insights - Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, and a 100% tariff on any brand or patented drugs unless companies are building pharmaceutical plants in the U.S. [1] - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center has officially launched in Shanghai, introducing three major business platforms: cross-border digital payment, blockchain services, and digital asset platforms, which are expected to enhance China's multilateral foreign trade system amid tariff uncertainties [4] Company Developments - Trump signed an executive order for a new TikTok U.S. operation plan, ensuring compliance with U.S. laws and establishing a joint venture responsible for data and content security, with a revenue-sharing mechanism between ByteDance and the new joint venture [2] Macro Developments - The U.S. Commerce Department has placed three companies, including Saroni Tech and Alcon, on the unreliable entity list, while three others, including Huntington Ingalls Industries, are on the export control list, indicating a cautious approach to foreign entities deemed harmful to national security [3]