摘要 ► 本周行情 ：汽车板块本周表现优于市场 本周（ 1 月 5 日 -1 月 11 日） A 股汽车板块上涨 2.7% ，在申万子行业中排名第 24 位，表现优于沪深 300 （ +0.2pct ）。细分板块中，汽车服务、汽 车零部件、摩托车及其他、商用载货车、乘用车分别上涨 5.3% 、 3.8% 、 2.4% 、 1.4% 、 0.6% ，商用载客车 -0.3% 。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、比亚迪、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 中国机器人展团在 CES 2026 表现强势，关注人形机器人板块。 根据维科网机器人 1 月 7 日报道，美国时间 1 月 6 日至 9 日在拉斯维加斯会议中心举办的 CES 2026 上，超过 30 家中国的人形机器人相关企业集中亮 相，形成从整机到核心零部件的完整产业链展示。中期来看，特斯拉量产进程与技术路线迭代或仍是核心主线，宇树科技等国产机器人主机厂即将密集进入 IPO 阶段，有望成为板块强事件催化。客户维度：重视特斯拉确定性主线 + 其他核心主机厂重大更新；产品维度：看好灵巧手、 PC/ABS 机甲、类 RV ...

NO.2中信建投：看好重卡行业周期上行的中期趋势 中信建投研报称，重卡以物流、工程为主要应用场景，销量波动与宏观经济大盘、置换更新需求、补 贴/淘汰政策等因素高度相关。展望2026年，中信建投认为国四+国五的自然报废更新需求将支撑70万级 的内销规模，叠加非俄地区拉动出口增长，总销量将保持在110万台左右。2027—2028年国五将成为重 卡报废的主力车型，超过400万台的庞大保有量将支撑内销中枢持续向上。出口可触及市场空间近70万 台，仍有进一步放量潜力，因此看好行业周期上行的中期趋势。 ｜2026年1月7日星期三｜ NO.1中信建投：人形机器人板块处于底部反弹阶段 中信建投（601066）指出，特斯拉正引领全球"物理AI"产业变革，人形机器人作为其核心支柱之一，与 智能驾驶共享FSD端到端大模型等技术底座，开启"数据-算法-硬件"闭环迭代。本周板块情绪持续回 暖，催化一方面来自特斯拉Optimus V3Q1发布在即、Gen3量产规划明确，另一方面，产业节奏进入实 质兑现期。中信建投认为板块处于底部反弹阶段，市场持续博弈特斯拉2026年底百万台产线落地前景， 预期上修有待新催化或量产进展验证。 NO.3中信 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯1月7日电，中信建投研报称，重卡以物流、工程为主要应用场景，销量波动与宏观经济大盘、 置换更新需求、补贴/淘汰政策等因素高度相关。展望2026年，中信建投认为国四+国五的自然报废更新 需求将支撑70万级的内销规模，叠加非俄地区拉动出口增长，总销量将保持在110万台左右。2027— 2028年国五将成为重卡报废的主力车型，超过400万台的庞大保有量将支撑内销中枢持续向上。出口可 触及市场空间近70万台，仍有进一步放量潜力，因此看好行业周期上行的中期趋势。 ...

★航空业迎黄金窗口：供需格局罕见改善，票价、油价、汇率三大利好齐聚 ★整车承压下的亮点：汽车零部件全球化与重卡景气周期带来的超额收益 ★消费的"预期差"：高端与性价比两头旺，结构性景气被市场低估 本期会谈邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 第一财经资讯2026-01-06 21:32:54 【本期重点】 ★2026，AI应用决战之年：个人通用Agent或是最大突破点与投资主线 ...

联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 行 业 比 较 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 06 日 涨价链和非银开门红可期 —— A 股行业中观景气跟踪月报（2025 年 12 月） 本期投资提示： 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 一、工业部门分行业月度跟踪：煤炭开采、黑色金属采选、医药制造等景气底部改善，关注医药制造、食 品饮料、纺服轻工、橡胶塑料、化学原料和制品等板块困境反转和供给出清机会。 ⚫ 1）量（营收、工业增加值）、价（PPI ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China achieved significant growth in 2025, with total sales reaching 1.137 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 26% [1][19]. Group 1: Monthly Sales Performance - In December 2025, approximately 95,000 heavy trucks were sold, representing a month-on-month decline of about 16% but a year-on-year increase of around 13% compared to 84,200 units in December 2024 [1][3]. - The average growth rate for the heavy truck market from April to December 2025 was as high as 41%, indicating a strong upward trend throughout the year [1][3]. - The total sales for 2025 marked the highest level in the last four years, with a total of 1.137 million units sold [1]. Group 2: Export and Terminal Sales - Heavy truck exports in December 2025 are expected to increase by nearly 20%, with total exports for the year projected at around 330,000 units, setting a new historical record [5]. - Domestic terminal sales for heavy trucks in December are estimated to grow by about 11%, with total terminal sales for 2025 expected to approach 800,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [5]. Group 3: New Energy and Gas Heavy Trucks - New energy heavy truck sales in December 2025 are projected to exceed 37,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 140%, with a monthly penetration rate nearing 50% [7]. - For the entire year, new energy heavy truck sales are expected to reach approximately 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 170% [7]. - In contrast, gas heavy truck sales in December 2025 are expected to decline by nearly 40% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 26% [9]. Group 4: Major Players in the Market - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (重汽) sold over 22,000 heavy trucks in December 2025, maintaining its position as the industry leader with a market share of approximately 26.7% [11]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation (东风) sold about 19,000 heavy trucks in December, ranking second in the industry with a market share of around 16% [13]. - Foton Motor (福田) achieved the highest growth rate among major companies, with December sales increasing by approximately 113% year-on-year [15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market in 2026 is expected to experience a slight domestic decline while maintaining steady growth in exports, influenced by the continuation of the old truck replacement policy [19].

证券研究报告 整车主线周报： 2026年以旧换新政策落地，景气度向上 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月5日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 2 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：本周2026年以旧换新政策落地，重卡政策超预期。我们认为：1）补贴力度超预期：此前市场 部分预期26年重卡单车补贴退坡，实际政策延续25年补贴金额；2）26年政策落地节奏将快于25年：25年政策 细则落地于3月下旬，Q2政策在地方开始实行（主因地方摸排国四换车意愿/地方财政问题），预计26年落地节 奏将加快。展望2026：我们预计 ...

2025 年 12 月，我国重卡出口也保持了稳健增长，预计同比上涨近 20%。2025 年全年，中国重卡出口销量预计 在 33 万辆左右，创下历史新高。 2025 年 12 月，重卡市场同比增速明显收窄。根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025 年 12 月份，我国重卡 市场共计销售 9.5 万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比 2025 年 11 月下降约 16%，比上年同期的 8.42 万辆增长约 13%。纵观 2025 年全年，我国重卡市场实现了九连涨，从 4 月份一直涨到 12 月份，平均增速 高达 41%！ 9.5 万辆放在最近八年来看，属于 "中上水平"，低于 2020 年 12 月的 11 万辆，略高于 2019 年 12 月销量。累计 来看，2025 年全年，我国重卡市场总销量达成了最近四年来的新高 ——113.7 万辆，同比增长约 26%。 2025 年重卡市场批发销量到年底同比增速陡然收窄，主要有两方面原因。一方面，上年同期销量基数较高， 达到 8.42 万辆 —— 这主要是受到了 2024 年四季度国三老旧货车以旧换新的推动；另一方面，受 2025 年国三 及国四营运货车以旧换新 ...

2025年的最后一个月，重卡行业呈现出终端零售和批发销量双双收窄的态势。其销量，究 竟会定格在多少？2025年全年累计销量突破110万辆了吗？2026年的走势，到底会如何？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 12月重卡销量同比上涨13%，全年累计超113万辆 2019-2025年我国重卡市场销量月度走势图（单位：辆） 2025年12月，重卡市场同比增速明显收窄。 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年12月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.5万辆左右 （批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比2025年11月下降约16%，比上年同期的8.42万 辆增长约13%。纵观2025年全年，我国重卡市场实现了九连涨，从4月份一直涨到12月 份，平均增速高达41%！ 9.5万辆放在最近八年来看，属于"中上水平"，低于2020年12月的11万辆，略高于2019 年12月销量。累计来看，2025年全年，我国重卡市场总销量达成了最近四年来的新高—— 113.7万辆，同比增长约26%。 2015-2025年我国重卡行业销量年度走势图（单位：万辆） 2025年12月，我国重卡行业批发销量同比增长约13%，国内终端销量情况又是如何的呢？ 同 ...

Core Insights - The capital market in 2025 experienced structural fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals, TMT, and power equipment being market highlights, while dividend sectors and real estate faced pressure. As 2026 approaches, structural opportunities are emerging supported by policy stabilization, corporate profit recovery, and liquidity influx [4] Group 1: Global Liquidity Improvement - The global macro environment in 2026 is expected to release positive signals, with the U.S. fiscal and monetary policies likely to trend towards easing. The "Great Beautiful Act" could lead to a long-term tax cut, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, and the debt ceiling may rise by $5 trillion (a 12% increase) [5] - A low-interest-rate environment is expected to ease global liquidity constraints, alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets and creating a relatively stable external environment for A-shares [5] Group 2: Domestic Economic Recovery - Domestic policies are aligning with micro signals to create a warming effect. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 and the 2026 Two Sessions will emphasize "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [6] - Industrial enterprises are currently at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI indicating an approaching replenishment cycle. The cumulative year-on-year growth of net profit excluding non-recurring gains for all A-shares in Q3 2025 was 3.2%, and asset turnover rates are stabilizing [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive price recovery, leading to a positive cycle in corporate profits. Institutional investors such as insurance funds and bank wealth management are anticipated to become significant sources of incremental funds in 2026, further solidifying market liquidity [6] Group 3: Key Investment Areas for 2026 - Focus on the AI supercycle, with continued prosperity in domestic and international computing power chains. Attention should be given to new technology iterations and inflation-related sectors, particularly the gaming industry and the gradual development of smart terminals and AI applications [7] - High-end manufacturing going overseas should be monitored, especially in sectors like energy storage-lithium batteries and AI-related high-demand segments. Sustainable growth potential exists in domestic and overseas markets for heavy trucks, passenger vehicles, and construction machinery [8] - Long-term attention should be given to the revaluation of strategic resources, including precious and industrial metals. Energy and lithium carbonate show signs of bottoming out, while the chemical sector's resource products and significantly rebounding blue-chip varieties are also worth investing in [8] - Continuous monitoring of breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as robotics, solid-state batteries, controlled nuclear fusion, aerospace, and quantum computing is recommended [9] - New consumption trends and innovative pharmaceuticals are areas of interest, with solid fundamentals in emotional, service, and technology consumption. The innovative drug sector remains a long-term trend, with improved cost-effectiveness following recent declines [9] Conclusion - The equity market outlook for 2026, while facing challenges, is supported by a "triple support" system of policy stabilization, profit recovery, and liquidity influx, which may solidify the foundation for structural market trends. Investors are encouraged to align with industry trends and core logic while capturing opportunities from a long-term perspective [10]