商用车行业 2026 年度投资策略： "以旧换新"政策延续 2026 置换+出口需求主导 20260227 摘要 2025 年重卡行业总量复苏，受益于以旧换新政策，全年批发销量达 114.4 万辆，同比增长 26.8%；上牌量 79.9 万辆，同比增长 32.7%， 其中物流车需求增长显著，但三季度价格竞争加剧，影响盈利能力。 2025 年重卡出口 34.1 万辆，同比增长 17.4%，东南亚、中东和非洲 是主要增长区域，其中尼日利亚增幅显著，但俄罗斯出口大幅下滑。中 国重汽市占率领先，行业 CR4 维持高位。 2025 年重卡燃料结构持续演变，柴油车需求下降，天然气重卡渗透率 企稳回升，新能源重卡销量达 22.9 万辆，同比增长 182%，渗透率提 升至 28.8%，电动化是主要技术路线。 2026 年重卡行业预计内需在外需双轮驱动下持续向上，以旧换新政策 延续，国五车辆进入报废期，东南亚、中东、非洲市场加速渗透，估值 体系有望重塑。 2025 年客车行业进入"内需筑底+出口高增"新周期，全年大中客批发 销量 12.2 万辆，同比增长 5%；出口 5.9 万辆，同比增长 34.6%，成 为增长主导力量。新能 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 -行业比较周跟踪（20260223-20260301） 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日) 1) 指数及板块估值比较: ● 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 22.8 倍，PB 为 1.9 倍，处于历史 83%和 53%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.5 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 58%和 37%分位; ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20260223-20260301） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 22.8 倍，PB 为 1.9 倍，处于历史 83%和 53%分位； ✓ ...

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting that macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions will significantly influence metal prices [2][3] - In the precious metals segment, a decline in risk appetite has led to price adjustments, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on a strong dollar and expectations of a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet contributing to this trend [2] - For copper, while macro pressures persist, the establishment of a strategic reserve for copper concentrate by the domestic non-ferrous industry association is expected to provide support against overseas supply disruptions [3] Group 2: Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market has seen strong demand, with a continuous reduction in inventory over the past four weeks, although there are concerns regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi [4] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into the electric vehicle supply chain to enhance competitive advantages [4] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continues to rise due to a tight supply-demand balance, with pre-holiday stocking needs supporting price increases [5] - Tungsten prices are experiencing upward pressure driven by supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies raising long-term contract prices significantly [5] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in January showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 46% in domestic heavy truck sales, driven by the successful implementation of the "old-for-new" policy [14][16] - The report forecasts that heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, with a slight year-on-year decline of 5.3%, while wholesale sales are expected to grow by 1.5% [15] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The demand for anticoagulant drugs is expanding, with the global market size reaching $52.9 billion in 2023 and projected to exceed $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease prevalence [11][12] - The report highlights the emergence of next-generation anticoagulants targeting Factor XI (FXI) as a promising area for development, with several candidates entering clinical trials [12][13] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The report on China Giant Glass indicates that the recent price increases in traditional electronic fabrics are expected to significantly enhance the company's profit margins, with a target price adjustment reflecting this trend [27][30] - 聚杰微纤 is positioned to benefit from its transition to high-end industrial applications, with projections indicating substantial revenue growth driven by technological advancements in the ultra-fine fiber sector [31][32]

总量上看，1月国产重卡销量10.5万台，同比增长46%，环比增长3% 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着2026年重卡"以旧换新"政策确认继续实施，2026年重卡 国内销量有望达到76万，同比-5.3%。2025年以旧换新政策效果可观，重卡销量基数较高，但该行观察 到国内物流景气度尚可，在2017-21年高置换基数下，预计重卡销量下滑幅度有限。整体看批发销量， 该行认为2026年有望达到116万台，同比+1.5%，出口有望维持增长。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1月重卡新能源渗透率19%。根据该行对重卡全生命周期成本(TCO)的测算，新能源重卡的TCO大致在年 度里程4.5至10万公里时最优。该行认为，随着技术成熟与成本下降，新能源重卡已具备内生增长动 力，2026年新能源渗透率有望继续增长，边际上应持续关注新能源重卡以旧换新政策落地情况。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 该行认为，1月重卡批发销量同环比增长的主要来自企业端的驱动，2025年主要重卡企业年度目标完成 度较好，因此结转了一部分销量到2026年，以确保2026年"开门红"，鼓舞经销体系和产业链合作伙伴的 信心。同时，批发" ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck, 03808) experienced a significant increase in stock price, opening over 14% higher before stabilizing at a 4.33% increase, reflecting strong market interest and positive performance indicators [1][1]. Sales Performance - In January, China National Heavy Duty Truck's heavy truck export sales exceeded 16,000 units, marking a historical high and continuing the momentum from September of the previous year when sales first surpassed 15,000 units [1][1]. - The company is projected to achieve total vehicle sales of over 440,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%. Heavy truck sales are expected to reach 300,000 units, maintaining the leading position in China's heavy truck industry for four consecutive years [1][1]. Export Growth - Heavy truck exports are anticipated to exceed 150,000 units for the year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 14%, indicating robust demand in international markets [1][1]. - UBS has released a report highlighting the strong performance of China National Heavy Duty Truck's export business and the continuous optimization of its product structure, which is expected to be a major driver of profit growth in 2026 [1][1]. Corporate Structure - It is important to note that China National Heavy Duty Truck H and A shares are both referred to as "China National Heavy Duty Truck," but they have distinct ownership structures and asset compositions. The H shares hold 51% of the A shares, indicating a hierarchical relationship in ownership [1][1].

证券代码：000951 证券简称：中国重汽 1 耕这一领域，紧密跟随技术发展脉络与市场趋势变化，持续 提升产品竞争力与市场响应速度，推动业务实现更高质量、 更可持续的稳健发展。 2、请谈一下公司近期的出口情况。 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20260211 | 投资者关系活动 | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 国金证券 陆强易、李文韬 | | 及人员姓名 | 永盈基金 沈平虹 | | 时 间 | 2026 年 2 月 11 日 13:30-14:30 | | 地 点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司 | 董事会秘书 张 欣 | | 接待人员姓名 | 公司 IR 何炳易 | | | 公司董事会秘书张欣女士简要介绍了公司情况，并就投 | | | 资者关心的问题进行了沟通和交流。主要内容如下： | | | 1、公司如何看待新能源重卡未来的发展。 | | | 在营运货车以旧换新补贴政策推动、市场需求持续释放 | | ...

Group 1 - The core disturbance in January industry data is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which significantly affects production, consumption, and export data compared to the previous lunar year [1][5][12] - The production sector shows an overall weakness compared to the same lunar period last year, with notable contraction in construction-related segments, while manufacturing exhibits divergence in performance [1][12] - Consumption patterns reveal significant declines in real estate transaction areas, while overall commodity consumption remains relatively stable, with variations in service consumption [1][13] Group 2 - The impact of the Spring Festival timing extends beyond January, potentially suppressing March production and investment data during the peak season [2][20] - The construction sector's new project initiation is expected to continue its downward trend due to ongoing inventory reduction policies, which will affect the overall recovery pace post-holiday [3][20] - Despite a more proactive fiscal policy and faster issuance of special bonds, the recovery in production and investment post-holiday is anticipated to be limited compared to previous years [3][20] Group 3 - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints due to production cuts and holiday shutdowns have led to price fluctuations, while metal demand shows improvement [4][25] - The real estate sector remains under pressure with low transaction volumes and investment levels, impacting demand for construction materials [4][34] - The financial sector shows high activity in the A-share market, with insurance premium income experiencing a year-on-year decline, while new credit issuance exceeds expectations [4][34] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth in machinery and heavy truck sales, benefiting from domestic equipment renewal policies and demand from emerging markets [4][34] - Consumer spending remains stable overall, but demand for durable goods is under pressure due to high base effects and policy rollbacks [4][34] - The TMT sector is experiencing multiple catalysts from both industry and policy perspectives, while the new energy sector sees a decline in domestic sales but strong export growth [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide clear direction and policy support for the capital market, with a focus on traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry demand expansion, and thematic investments in frontier industries [1] Macro Analysis: Opportunities in Financial Assets - The liquidity environment is expected to remain relatively loose both globally and domestically, providing opportunities across various financial assets, with a particular emphasis on the A-share equity market [2] - Current A-share market valuations are considered reasonable based on historical rolling returns, suggesting that the market is not overly expensive [2] - Two core supporting factors for the A-share market include a friendly liquidity environment and an anticipated upward trend in the profit cycle due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2] Trend Assessment: Technological Self-Reliance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance as a strategic task, highlighting the importance of technological innovation and productivity improvement for sustainable economic development [4] Insight into Opportunities: Three Structural Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines three key investment directions: 1. Traditional industries such as chemicals, shipbuilding, and metallurgy are expected to enhance profitability through supply-side policies and optimization [5][6] 2. Emerging industries like artificial intelligence and energy storage are projected to experience sustained demand growth, leading to rapid development [6] 3. Frontier industries, including embodied intelligence and quantum technology, are seen as having significant growth potential and should be monitored for breakthroughs in basic scientific research [6] Rational Layout: Understanding Industry Trends - Investors are advised to recognize industry trends and avoid frequent timing based on short-term fluctuations, particularly in the high-growth and high-volatility technology sector [7] - The investment strategy should focus on understanding industry development trends and adjusting strategies only when substantial changes occur in the underlying fundamentals [7]

Core Insights - SANY Heavy Truck has experienced a remarkable "V" shaped revenue curve, with annual revenue dropping from 6 billion to over 1 billion and then surpassing 10 billion, largely due to proactive strategic decisions [1][2] - The company has fully transitioned to electric vehicle (EV) production, ceasing the manufacture of fuel trucks in 2021, despite initial skepticism from both internal and external stakeholders [2][3] - SANY Heavy Truck's commitment to technology and service excellence has positioned it as a leader in the electric heavy truck market, achieving a market share of 125% growth in domestic sales by 2025 [2][3][4] Revenue and Market Position - In 2020, SANY Heavy Truck's revenue reached 6 billion, but by 2021, it fell to over 3 billion and then to over 1 billion in 2022, marking a significant decline [3] - By 2023, the company rebounded with a valuation of 14 billion and was included in the "Hurun Global Unicorn List" for the first time [3] - The company aims to achieve annual revenue of 50 billion within five years, focusing on technology leadership and globalization [9] Strategic Decisions - The decision to pivot to electric trucks was made in 2021, with the company halting fuel truck production to focus entirely on electric vehicle development [2][3] - SANY Heavy Truck has invested heavily in building a production base for electric trucks and recruiting talent for EV research and development [3][5] Technological Innovation - The company has emphasized technological innovation, with over 50% of its 400 R&D personnel focused on key electric vehicle technologies [6] - SANY Heavy Truck has achieved significant milestones, including a world record for the longest range of an electric semi-truck at 817.5 kilometers on a single charge [6][7] Service Excellence - SANY Heavy Truck has adopted a direct sales and service model, deploying over 600 service engineers to provide customized solutions and rapid response to customer needs [7][8] - The company has a strong focus on customer service, with a commitment to resolving issues within 15 minutes of customer contact and ensuring customer satisfaction [8] Global Expansion - SANY Heavy Truck is expanding its sales and service network globally, with interest in electric trucks from international markets such as the UAE, Brazil, and Australia [8]