Core Viewpoint - The domestic tea brand BaWang ChaJi, which successfully listed on NASDAQ, is facing significant challenges just three months post-IPO, including a substantial decline in market value and same-store sales [1][2] Market Performance - BaWang ChaJi's stock price initially surged to $33.75 on its first trading day, exceeding the IPO price of $28 by over 20%, with a market capitalization surpassing $7.5 billion [1] - However, by May 13, less than a month after listing, the stock price fell below the IPO price, closing at $27.36 [1] - As of July 22, the stock price further declined to $25.02, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $4.592 billion, a decrease of around $1.3 billion from the first-day closing market value and a drop of about $2.9 billion from the peak market value [1] Sales Performance - The company reported a significant decline in same-store sales, with a drop of 18.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [5] - The average monthly GMV per store in Greater China decreased from approximately 549,000 RMB in Q1 2024 to around 432,000 RMB in Q1 2025 [5] - This decline in same-store sales is attributed to the rapid expansion of the store network, which has led to customer traffic dilution and negatively impacted the performance of existing stores [4][7] Expansion Strategy - BaWang ChaJi opened nearly 3,000 new stores in 2024, nearly doubling its store count year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had 6,681 stores, with 6,490 being franchise stores [3] - The aggressive expansion strategy has resulted in operational challenges, including pressure on franchisees' profit margins [7][11] Competitive Landscape - The tea beverage market is highly competitive, with BaWang ChaJi facing challenges from both domestic brands like MiXue Ice City and international brands like Starbucks [10] - The company's market share is under pressure as competitors continue to innovate and expand their offerings [10][11] Product Strategy - BaWang ChaJi's reliance on a few popular products has raised concerns about its ability to innovate and meet changing consumer preferences [11][12] - The company has been slower in product iteration compared to competitors, which may lead to consumer fatigue and decreased brand loyalty [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the company's future profitability may continue to decline due to intensified industry competition and its limited capacity for innovation [13]

01 市场竞争激烈 尽管中国现制茶饮市场规模已突破千亿元，并在持续增长，但行业增速正在放缓。根据中国连锁经营协会数据，我国现制茶饮店行业规模虽然保持增 长，但是面对2025年，新茶饮市场规模增速预计将从2023年的44.3%放缓至2025年的12.4%。 据GeoQData数据显示，2024年上半年101家连锁新茶饮品牌新开店量与去年同期持平，但闭店量却提升了近3000家。全国超过3000个品牌在市场中激战， 部分品牌选择降价以维持竞争力，喜茶和奈雪的茶将价格压至15元区间，而蜜雪冰城凭借6元柠檬水占据下沉市场，中端品牌则面临"上下挤压"的困境。霸 王茶姬虽在一二线城市占据一定市场份额，但如何在下沉市场维持竞争力仍是挑战。 近年来，国内新茶饮市场竞争日趋激烈，行业"内卷"现象明显。虽然整体市场规模仍在增长，但增速却在放缓。在这样的市场环境下，霸王茶姬虽然扩张 迅速，但业绩增长压力加大，寻求海外市场成为其突破口。 来源丨征探财经 作者丨征探君 霸王茶姬的快速扩张主要依赖于加盟模式，这一模式在助力门店数量增长的同时，也带来了一定的管理风险，尤其是食品安全问题。近年来，部分霸王茶 姬门店因食品安全问题被投诉，如何在 ...