以下文章来源于观潮新消费 ，作者刘萍 观潮新消费 . 激发国牌无限可能 爷爷不泡茶增长方法论的落地，面临着难以调和的现实矛盾。 作者 | 刘萍 编辑 | 杜仲 来源 | 观潮新消费（ID：TideSight） " 爷爷不泡茶？ 名字怎么这么奇怪 。 " 这或 是很多 消费者对这个品牌的第一反应。 尽管爷爷不泡茶的门店数不到 3000 家，在蜜雪冰城、古茗等庞然大物面前，仍显得略"娇小"，但 近两年凭借迅猛的扩张速度，已让部分市场人士思考其成为"下一个霸王茶姬"的可能性。 在资本裹挟下狂奔的新茶饮行业，从来不缺故事，缺少可持续的商业逻辑， 门店规模是叩开资本大 门的硬通货。 爷爷不泡茶在 2025 年的开店目标是保底完成 4500 家门店，冲刺 5000 家。 其中，又数奈雪的茶和喜茶最为出圈，均是靠卖水果茶改写新茶饮市场，其新店所在之处，常出现 "喝一杯需要排队三小时"的奇观。同年，奈雪的茶完成了数亿元 A+ 轮融资， 喜茶获得 4 亿元 B 轮融资 。 爷爷泡的茶选择跟随头部品牌脚步，售卖波霸奶茶、仙草奶茶等常规台式奶茶产品，以及芝士名茶、 鲜果茶等正当红的品类。 但在喜茶、奈雪已占据消费者心智的水果茶市场 ...

茶饮店结束营业之后需要多久才能真正"关店"？答案是：大约两小时。 有人在想怎么解决这个"两小时"的事情。晚上 10 点，上海七宝宝龙城霸王茶姬门店的员工下班了。外部服务商会派人上门帮工打烊，第二天，早班员工 只需要拍照验收服务。 这个项目在霸王茶姬内部被称为"夜洁计划"，"夜洁"即"夜间清洁"，截至 2025 年 7 月，霸王茶姬在中国已有 1350 家门店采纳夜洁，约占全国门店的 1/5。上海七宝宝龙城门店已参与该项目近 4 个月。 放眼整个餐饮和茶饮行业，员工按时下班，每天让外包清洁工打烊，还是个颇为罕见的做法。大多数品牌认为"开早"和"打烊"的早晚班清洁整理工作是门 店员工分内事。打烊的确是个烫手山芋。 假设一家现制茶饮店铺开在商场里，每当商场关门以后，好几名店员需要花上两个小时，为翌日开张做准备——烧壶热水，配制清洁液，清洗各类制茶工 具和机器设备，倒垃圾，给物料称重，检查食品有没有过期，整理桌椅……等到一切就绪，通常已是凌晨，商场已经关闭，员工们只能走员工通道离开。 谷帆在肯德基工作了 12 年，2023 年年初他加入霸王茶姬营运中心，负责培训门店伙伴。从 2023 年下旬开始，谷帆和团队着手引入外 ...

"秋天的第一杯奶茶"这一概念最早可追溯至2020年社交媒体上的一场"奶茶狂欢"，当时，网友自发在立秋时节晒出奶茶照片，并配上"秋天的 第一杯奶茶"话题标签。短短几年间，这一社交话题已被敏锐的商家捕捉并培育成现象级的季节性营销IP。 记者在济南弘阳广场、印象济南·泉世界等热门商圈实地探访时发现，这场由线上话题引发的消费热潮正席卷线下。7日下午2点，某知名奶茶 品牌门店前已排起长队，店内座无虚席，店外的临时等候区也挤满了等待取餐的顾客，店内电子屏显示待制作订单数达247单。相邻的另一家 网红奶茶店情况更为火爆，取餐台上摆满待配送的外卖包裹，店员和外卖员小跑着穿梭在门店里。 随着立秋到来，"秋天的第一杯奶茶"话题再度席卷社交网络并迅速转化为线下消费热潮。8月7日，新黄河记者实地走访济南多家热门奶茶店发 现，部分连锁品牌门店订单量激增，外卖和自取均需排队几百单，店员忙得不可开交，外卖骑手也表示"今天爆单，商家根本忙不过来"。 季节性营销拉动销量激增 有门店日售上百杯奶茶 "我已经出去送了两单回来了，这杯奶茶还没出餐。"一名京东骑手无奈地告诉记者，今天的奶茶太火爆导致订单卡单严重，平时中午这个时候 都能配送二三十单，今 ...

每经编辑｜何小桃 奶茶大战又来了。 8月7日，立秋已至。"秋天的第一杯奶茶"从2020年出现，这个热梗过了五年还未过时，这一天甚至被网友称为"奶茶界双11"，是每年商家和外卖行业促销 的固定节目。 美团宣布，8月7日请全体骑手喝秋天的第一杯奶茶。美团表示，平台将在线上线下同步发放270万杯新品奶茶券，近期所有跑过单的骑手都能免费领取。 不仅可以自己喝，还可以转赠给亲朋好友。此外，美团表示，立秋期间将向全国十多个知名茶饮品牌，赠送超万张免费"休闲理疗券"，并根据门店实际情 况分配给一线员工。店员朋友们可前往附近门店，享受40至60分钟的免费捏脚、推拿等服务，缓解工作辛劳。 另外，8月7日美团外卖宣布#美团外卖奶茶免单100万杯#今天是最后一天，同时，今天20万杯"秋天的第一杯奶茶"免单！ 淘宝闪购宣布即日起至8月10日，上淘宝搜"秋天第一杯"，每天抢超100万杯奶茶免单。 前方等待300杯、排队两小时 奶茶店再现"爆单" 与往年不同，今年的热潮似乎来得更早一些。 据钱江晚报报道，一家位于杭州教工路的茶饮门店店员告诉记者，"忙得飞起，做单的速度都赶不上出单的速度，备料都来不及。有的人凌晨就下单，早 上一开工，小票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic tea brand BaWang ChaJi, which successfully listed on NASDAQ, is facing significant challenges just three months post-IPO, including a substantial decline in market value and same-store sales [1][2] Market Performance - BaWang ChaJi's stock price initially surged to $33.75 on its first trading day, exceeding the IPO price of $28 by over 20%, with a market capitalization surpassing $7.5 billion [1] - However, by May 13, less than a month after listing, the stock price fell below the IPO price, closing at $27.36 [1] - As of July 22, the stock price further declined to $25.02, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $4.592 billion, a decrease of around $1.3 billion from the first-day closing market value and a drop of about $2.9 billion from the peak market value [1] Sales Performance - The company reported a significant decline in same-store sales, with a drop of 18.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [5] - The average monthly GMV per store in Greater China decreased from approximately 549,000 RMB in Q1 2024 to around 432,000 RMB in Q1 2025 [5] - This decline in same-store sales is attributed to the rapid expansion of the store network, which has led to customer traffic dilution and negatively impacted the performance of existing stores [4][7] Expansion Strategy - BaWang ChaJi opened nearly 3,000 new stores in 2024, nearly doubling its store count year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had 6,681 stores, with 6,490 being franchise stores [3] - The aggressive expansion strategy has resulted in operational challenges, including pressure on franchisees' profit margins [7][11] Competitive Landscape - The tea beverage market is highly competitive, with BaWang ChaJi facing challenges from both domestic brands like MiXue Ice City and international brands like Starbucks [10] - The company's market share is under pressure as competitors continue to innovate and expand their offerings [10][11] Product Strategy - BaWang ChaJi's reliance on a few popular products has raised concerns about its ability to innovate and meet changing consumer preferences [11][12] - The company has been slower in product iteration compared to competitors, which may lead to consumer fatigue and decreased brand loyalty [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the company's future profitability may continue to decline due to intensified industry competition and its limited capacity for innovation [13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of USD 31.60 for Chagee Holdings, currently priced at USD 25.02 [1][2]. Core Insights - Chagee Holdings, founded in 2017 in Yunnan, aims to connect the world through Eastern tea culture, focusing on three product categories: "First Cup Tea" (light milk tea), "Second Cup Tea" (tea lattes and pure tea), and "Third Cup Tea" (ready-to-drink tea beverages) [1][5]. - As of March 2025, Chagee has established 6,681 stores globally, making it the largest high-end fresh tea brand in China [1][5]. - The company has experienced rapid growth in the fresh tea beverage market, with a projected revenue increase from RMB 12.41 billion in 2024 to RMB 24.42 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [1][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Chagee are RMB 15.11 billion for 2025, RMB 19.39 billion for 2026, and RMB 24.42 billion for 2027, with net profits expected to reach RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.57 billion, and RMB 4.34 billion respectively [1][3]. - The report estimates a diluted EPS of RMB 19.23 for 2025, with a gross profit margin (GPM) increasing from 49.6% in 2024 to 56.6% by 2027 [1][3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Chagee has a significant advantage in the "First Cup Tea" segment, with single-store GMV reaching a peak of RMB 574,000 in Q4 2023, four times higher than Q1 2022 [2][28]. - The company maintains a strong brand presence and scale advantage in the light milk tea category, despite increasing competition in the beverage industry [2][31]. - Chagee's overseas expansion has accelerated, with 169 international stores opened by Q1 2025, including locations in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the USA, and Vietnam [2][35]. Product Development and Innovation - The "Second Cup Tea" concept was launched in March 2025, focusing on office areas with a new store format called "CHAGEE NOW," offering freshly brewed tea and baked goods [3][37]. - The "Third Cup Tea" is anticipated to leverage the existing brand and distribution network for ready-to-drink tea products, with significant market potential in the RTD tea segment [3][49]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain - Chagee employs a digitalized operational model, enhancing efficiency across product development, supply chain management, and customer engagement [1][16]. - The company has streamlined its supply chain, focusing on a limited number of ingredients, which has resulted in lower logistics costs and improved inventory turnover [1][17]. Franchise Model and Expansion Strategy - Chagee's franchise model, termed "1+1+9+N," ensures a high success rate for new store openings by establishing local subsidiaries before launching franchise operations [1][23]. - The company has achieved a low franchise closure rate of approximately 1.5% in 2024, primarily due to underperforming franchise partners [1][24].

Core Insights - The company BaWang Tea Ji, dubbed the "Eastern Starbucks," experienced a significant stock price increase of 15.86% on its NASDAQ debut, reaching a market valuation of $7.7 billion, but has since faced a decline, losing nearly $1 billion in market value within three months [2] - The rapid expansion of BaWang Tea Ji, which grew to 6,681 stores since its founding in 2017, is now showing signs of strain, with same-store sales declining and some franchisees facing closure [2][3] - The company's heavy reliance on a single product, "Bo Ya Jue Xian," which contributed 35% of its GMV in 2024, is proving risky as competition increases and consumer interest wanes [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the average monthly GMV for BaWang Tea Ji's stores in Greater China fell by 21%, with the East China market experiencing a decline of over 27% [3] - The continuous negative growth over two quarters indicates that store expansion has not translated into improved performance, leading to customer traffic dilution [3] - Currently, 66 stores have suspended operations, with some franchisees reporting significant drops in sales and extended payback periods [3] Franchise Model Challenges - The franchise model, which has been crucial for BaWang Tea Ji's rapid growth, is now revealing its weaknesses as declining same-store revenues squeeze franchisee profit margins [3] - Fixed costs such as rent and labor remain unchanged, while the brand's reliance on discounts and marketing to boost sales further erodes profits [3] International Expansion - BaWang Tea Ji's international ventures in Southeast Asia and North America have not yet yielded profitability, with challenges in supply chain management and market penetration [4] - The company has ceded control of its subsidiary in Thailand to local firms to address supply chain issues, and its U.S. stores are primarily located in Chinese communities, lacking mainstream market presence [4] Market Sentiment - Following the release of disappointing financial results, BaWang Tea Ji's stock plummeted by 9.59%, with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14, significantly lower than its peers [4] - Analysts suggest that the new tea beverage industry is shifting focus from customer acquisition to supply chain efficiency and product innovation, areas where BaWang Tea Ji may struggle due to its asset-light model [4] - The company's experience reflects a broader trend in the industry, where other listed tea brands like Nayuki and Cha Bai Dao have also faced stock volatility, indicating cautious market sentiment regarding sustainable growth [4]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The discussion primarily revolves around the tea beverage industry, specifically focusing on the brand "霸王茶几" (Ba Wang Cha Ji) and its operational status in various regions of China, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Fujian [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Operational Status**: The company has been involved in the restaurant industry since 2015, with a focus on tea beverages starting in late 2020. Currently, there are around seven to eight stores operating in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Fujian [1]. 2. **Market Penetration**: In 2024, the brand is expanding into lower-tier cities and towns, where it has shown strong sales performance. The brand's ability to penetrate these markets is highlighted as a competitive advantage [2]. 3. **Store Performance**: The average monthly gross merchandise volume (GMV) for stores was previously around 100 million yuan, but has since decreased to 50-60 million yuan due to market saturation and increased competition [3][30]. 4. **Sales Model**: The sales model is described as having a solid cost structure, with monthly sales ranging from 30 to 50 million yuan, depending on the proportion of takeout versus dine-in customers [4][5]. 5. **Challenges in Expansion**: The company is cautious about opening new stores due to market saturation in established areas. The focus is on optimizing existing stores rather than aggressive expansion [17][18]. 6. **Cost Structure**: The initial investment for opening a new store is estimated to be between 800,000 to 1 million yuan, which includes rent, equipment, and initial inventory. The cost has decreased due to the allowance of second-hand equipment [9][10]. 7. **Profitability**: The profit margins are under pressure due to high operational costs, with food costs accounting for approximately 37-40% of revenue. The profitability of stores varies significantly based on location and market conditions [35][34]. 8. **Impact of External Factors**: The rise of competitors like 瑞幸 (Luckin Coffee) is noted, but it is believed that the tea beverage market remains largely unaffected by the coffee segment [46][47]. 9. **Brand Management**: The brand's management is described as strict but effective, ensuring compliance and maintaining quality standards, which is seen as a positive aspect by franchisees [53][54]. 10. **Future Outlook**: There is a cautious optimism about the brand's longevity, with franchisees willing to continue investing if good locations are available. However, the market for new brands remains volatile, and franchisees are wary of potential risks [57][58]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion touches on the importance of brand heat and market trends, with franchisees actively monitoring social media platforms for consumer sentiment and brand performance [39]. - The operational challenges faced by franchisees, including the need for compliance with strict operational guidelines, are acknowledged, but many see this as a necessary trade-off for profitability [25][54]. - The potential for new brands to emerge in the market is recognized, but franchisees express skepticism about their sustainability compared to established brands like 霸王茶几 [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for CHAGEE [4][12][15] Core Views - CHAGEE is positioned as the largest premium freshly-made tea drinks brand in China, with a mission to inherit and innovate Chinese tea culture [7][31] - The company has achieved a remarkable terminal retail sales growth of 2387% from 2022 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing freshly-made tea brand with over 1,000 stores in China [7][30] - CHAGEE focuses on brand building and aims to create a global modern tea brand, differentiating itself from competitors by concentrating on tea products rather than diversifying into other beverage categories [8][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 46.4 billion RMB in 2023, 124.06 billion RMB in 2024, 150.51 billion RMB in 2025, 180.10 billion RMB in 2026, and 210.82 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 844%, 167%, 21%, 20%, and 17% respectively [6][15] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: 7.25 billion RMB in 2023, 23.84 billion RMB in 2024, 28.05 billion RMB in 2025, 33.36 billion RMB in 2026, and 39.34 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 229%, 18%, 19%, and 18% respectively [6][15] - The company is expected to open 1,200 new stores in 2025, with a total store count of 7,640, representing a 19% increase [11][15] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - CHAGEE holds a market share of approximately 20.3% in the premium freshly-made tea segment, ranking first among high-end tea brands in China [30] - The company has pioneered the "whole-leaf milk tea" category, which has become a significant contributor to its sales, accounting for 91% of its GMV in 2024 [9][44] - CHAGEE's innovative "tea tech" enhances standardization and efficiency, allowing for rapid service and consistent product quality across its stores [10][11] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to accelerate overseas store openings, with a focus on markets like Malaysia and the United States, while maintaining a strong domestic presence [11][17] - CHAGEE employs a franchise model for most of its stores, with 97% of its domestic stores being franchises, which enhances its risk resilience [38][41] Product Innovation - CHAGEE emphasizes health-conscious product offerings, eliminating artificial additives and introducing features like a "health calculator" for transparency [57][58] - The company continuously expands its product line, recently launching new items such as "Tea Espresso" and "Tea Latte" to attract diverse consumer segments [9][63]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid expansion of Chinese tea brands into international markets, particularly focusing on the strategies and challenges faced by these brands in developed countries like the United States and South Korea. The competition is intensifying as brands adopt different approaches to capture market share, with a notable shift from Southeast Asia to more mature markets in the West [4][20][23]. Group 1: Brand Expansion Strategies - Heytea has opened over 20 stores in the U.S., testing high-ticket markets with its LAB store model [5][25]. - Bawang Chaji targets affluent areas like Beverly Hills, with single-store investment costs several times higher than in China [7][27]. - Cha Baidao is boldly challenging the coffee-dominated South Korean market with a differentiated strategy [9][30]. Group 2: Market Performance and Financials - Bawang Chaji's overseas stores generated a GMV of 178 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking an 85.3% year-on-year increase [13][36]. - Despite rapid expansion, overseas revenue for brands like Mixue Ice City remains low, accounting for less than 5% of total revenue [22][50]. - Bawang Chaji's marketing expenses surged from 73.6 million yuan in 2022 to 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high-cost strategy [52][53]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The U.S. market presents unique challenges, including high investment costs and lengthy approval processes for store openings, which can take 9-12 months [33][34]. - Compliance with local regulations significantly increases operational costs, as seen with the requirements for seating and restroom facilities in California [56]. - Local competition and imitation brands pose significant threats, complicating market entry and brand protection efforts [56][57]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Bawang Chaji's simplified supply chain focuses on tea, milk, and packaging, resulting in lower logistics costs compared to fruit-based brands [49]. - The complexity of the supply chain for fruit tea brands creates challenges in overseas expansion, with some opting for local sourcing to mitigate costs [49][54]. - The article highlights that over 80% of restaurant brands face failure when expanding internationally, emphasizing the difficulties in establishing a sustainable presence abroad [50].