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日本城市化与自然灾害悖论
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日本人,焦虑地等待一场大灾难
36氪· 2025-07-09 13:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the collective anxiety in Japan regarding potential geological disasters, particularly focusing on the predictions of a significant earthquake in the future and its implications for the economy and society [4][8][10]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The decline in tourism to Japan has been significant, with orders for trips to Japan dropping by 50% compared to the same period last year, and a staggering 83% decrease in bookings from late June to early July [3][4]. - Economic losses due to the fear of impending disasters could reach up to 560 billion yen (approximately 25.87 billion RMB) [4]. Group 2: Geological Predictions - A manga titled "I Saw the Future: Complete Edition" has fueled fears of a catastrophic event predicted for July 5, 2025, which has been linked to past disasters [4][7]. - Experts predict an 80% chance of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, with potential casualties reaching 300,000 [8][18]. Group 3: Urbanization and Vulnerability - Japan's rapid urbanization has increased the potential for casualties in the event of a major earthquake, as densely populated cities are more susceptible to disaster impacts [20][22]. - Historical earthquakes, such as the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, have shown the devastating effects of seismic events on urban areas, leading to significant loss of life and infrastructure [26][27]. Group 4: Long-term Recovery Challenges - Areas outside major cities, like Fukushima, face prolonged recovery times and feelings of neglect from the government, highlighting disparities in resource allocation for disaster recovery [30][31]. - The lingering effects of past disasters continue to shape the perceptions and realities of affected communities, with many residents feeling abandoned in the recovery process [35][36].