Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the collective anxiety in Japan regarding potential geological disasters, particularly focusing on the predictions of a significant earthquake in the future and its implications for the economy and society [4][8][10]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The decline in tourism to Japan has been significant, with orders for trips to Japan dropping by 50% compared to the same period last year, and a staggering 83% decrease in bookings from late June to early July [3][4]. - Economic losses due to the fear of impending disasters could reach up to 560 billion yen (approximately 25.87 billion RMB) [4]. Group 2: Geological Predictions - A manga titled "I Saw the Future: Complete Edition" has fueled fears of a catastrophic event predicted for July 5, 2025, which has been linked to past disasters [4][7]. - Experts predict an 80% chance of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, with potential casualties reaching 300,000 [8][18]. Group 3: Urbanization and Vulnerability - Japan's rapid urbanization has increased the potential for casualties in the event of a major earthquake, as densely populated cities are more susceptible to disaster impacts [20][22]. - Historical earthquakes, such as the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, have shown the devastating effects of seismic events on urban areas, leading to significant loss of life and infrastructure [26][27]. Group 4: Long-term Recovery Challenges - Areas outside major cities, like Fukushima, face prolonged recovery times and feelings of neglect from the government, highlighting disparities in resource allocation for disaster recovery [30][31]. - The lingering effects of past disasters continue to shape the perceptions and realities of affected communities, with many residents feeling abandoned in the recovery process [35][36].

Group 1 - The prediction of a devastating earthquake in Japan on July 5 did not materialize, alleviating concerns for the Japanese government and citizens [1][2] - The rumor originated from a manga artist's book published in 1999, which included various "prophetic dreams," one of which coincidentally matched the timing of the 2011 earthquake [1][2] - The Japanese Meteorological Agency and scientists emphasized that predicting earthquakes accurately is currently impossible due to the lack of scientific evidence supporting such claims [3][6] Group 2 - Japan is located in a seismically active region, experiencing approximately 1,500 earthquakes annually, with significant earthquakes accounting for about 20% of global occurrences [4][5] - The potential economic loss from a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough could exceed 292 trillion yen, with a possible death toll of 298,000 people [5] - Experts warn of the risk of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough occurring within the next decade, which could also trigger volcanic activity in Mount Fuji [5][6] Group 3 - Current scientific capabilities allow for only seconds of warning before an earthquake, and precise predictions regarding the date and location remain unsolved challenges [6][7] - The complexity of earthquake prediction involves multiple scientific disciplines, and the understanding of earthquake mechanisms is still in its early stages [7][8] - The probability of an 8.0 magnitude earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years is estimated at 82%, reflecting an increase from previous assessments [8]