Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election is critical for the ruling coalition's future, with potential implications for Prime Minister Kishida's government and Japan's political landscape [3][12][14]. Group 1: Election Context - The voting for the Japanese Senate election began on the 20th, with over 21.45 million early votes cast, marking a historical high [2]. - The Senate has 248 seats, with 125 seats contested in this election, including 124 regular seats and one special election in Tokyo [2]. - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, needs to secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - Analysts suggest that a loss for the ruling coalition could further complicate Prime Minister Kishida's governance, especially after losing the House of Representatives last year [3][14]. - Kishida's government has set a target to retain a majority in the Senate, but recent polls indicate a challenging election ahead, with predictions of only 30 seats for the LDP [6][7]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Support Rates - Kishida's cabinet support rate has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, with a corresponding rise in disapproval to 55% [9]. - The decline in support is attributed to rising living costs and ineffective policies addressing inflation, leading to increased public dissatisfaction [16]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Japan is facing economic pressures from rising prices and potential tariffs from the U.S., which could impact key sectors like the automotive industry [10][11]. - The consumer price index rose by 4.0% in May, with real wages decreasing for five consecutive months, exacerbating the economic challenges for the government [11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is expected to significantly influence the future political landscape of Japan, with the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito facing challenges in securing a majority of seats [1] Group 1 - Multiple opinion polls indicate that the ruling coalition's goal of obtaining more than half of the seats is under threat [1] - Yamaguchi University professor Akira Kakehashi suggests that this election could be a pivotal moment for Japan's political direction [1]