Core Insights - Walmart Inc reported a profit of 68 cents per share, missing earnings estimates for the first time since 2022, while revenue reached $177.4 billion, exceeding expectations [1] - Despite tariff pressures, price concerns, and one-time expenses, strong U.S. and e-commerce sales led Walmart to raise its full-year sales and profit outlook [1] Stock Performance - The stock is down 4.3% to $98.15, breaking a three-day winning streak and falling below the $100 resistance level [2] - Year-to-date, Walmart's equity is still up 8.6% [2] Analyst Sentiment - A majority of analysts remain optimistic, with 36 out of 37 firms rating Walmart a "buy" or better [3] - The stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.98 indicates strong long-term sentiment, ranking higher than 87% of readings from the past year [3] Options Activity - Bearish activity has increased in the options market, with 114,000 puts exchanged, significantly above the intraday average [4] - The most popular contracts are the August 97-, 98-, and 92-strike puts, with positions opening at all three levels [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but rising tariffs may pressure consumer spending, a key growth driver [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate in the US is expected to slow to 1.6% by the end of the year, remaining below trend levels through 2026 [2] - Inflation in the US is rising due to tariffs affecting prices, while Asian economies (excluding Japan) face slowing inflation due to weak growth and low oil prices [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on inflation data, with most Asian central banks expected to ease policies in a low inflation environment [2] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3% to 5% over the next 6 to 9 months, which may lead to a moderate appreciation of most Asian currencies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company prefers emerging markets and Asian stocks over the US market due to more attractive valuations and macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - US high-yield bonds remain attractive with a yield of 7%, while emerging market bonds offer upside potential due to dollar depreciation [1][5] - US Treasury bonds are viewed positively as they provide yield opportunities and can hedge against potential risks from slowing US economic growth [1][5] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The company has adopted a more positive tactical stance on risk assets, particularly stocks and credit, as the impact of tariffs is assessed to be less severe than previously thought [4] - Key indicators such as global purchasing managers' index and corporate earnings forecasts continue to support a positive short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoints - In July, China's export growth rate exceeded Bloomberg's consensus expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, slightly below the company's forecast of 7.5% but higher than the previous value of 5.9% [2][4] - The resilience of exports is supported by low base effects and driven by three key regions: ASEAN, EU, and Africa, which may continue to provide unexpected strength against US tariff pressures [4][6] - Import growth in July significantly surpassed expectations, primarily driven by raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil and integrated circuits, indicating potential future pressures on import demand [4][11] Group 1: Trade Data Observations - July's export data aligns closely with the company's expectations, with a year-on-year increase supported by a low base from the previous year, while the month-on-month figure fell below the historical average [6][12] - The resilience of exports is notable given the backdrop of significant US tariff increases, with cumulative export growth remaining robust despite potential "export rush" factors [6][16] - The overall external demand may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, compounded by the potential for a decline in import demand [9][10] Group 2: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa have shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall export performance in July [7][17] - The recovery in EU exports aligns with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, while ASEAN exports may be influenced by transshipment trade dynamics [20][23] - African exports have been particularly strong, driven by vehicle and parts exports, indicating a divergence from trends seen in other regions [26][29] Group 3: Export Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to face adjustments due to external demand slowing and high base effects in the fourth quarter [9][34] - Leading indicators suggest that export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with potential declines in the second half [10][34] Group 4: Import Performance - July's import growth rate of 4.1% significantly exceeded expectations, driven by various categories including crude oil and integrated circuits [38][60] - The contribution to import growth primarily came from unlisted other goods, indicating a potential reliance on specific categories for sustained growth [11][39] - Future import growth may face challenges due to declining commodity prices and ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [39][63]

加拿大贸易部长：与美国的贸易谈判仍在进行中，但渥太华不会屈服于关税压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election is critical for the ruling coalition's future, with potential implications for Prime Minister Kishida's government and Japan's political landscape [3][12][14]. Group 1: Election Context - The voting for the Japanese Senate election began on the 20th, with over 21.45 million early votes cast, marking a historical high [2]. - The Senate has 248 seats, with 125 seats contested in this election, including 124 regular seats and one special election in Tokyo [2]. - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, needs to secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - Analysts suggest that a loss for the ruling coalition could further complicate Prime Minister Kishida's governance, especially after losing the House of Representatives last year [3][14]. - Kishida's government has set a target to retain a majority in the Senate, but recent polls indicate a challenging election ahead, with predictions of only 30 seats for the LDP [6][7]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Support Rates - Kishida's cabinet support rate has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, with a corresponding rise in disapproval to 55% [9]. - The decline in support is attributed to rising living costs and ineffective policies addressing inflation, leading to increased public dissatisfaction [16]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Japan is facing economic pressures from rising prices and potential tariffs from the U.S., which could impact key sectors like the automotive industry [10][11]. - The consumer price index rose by 4.0% in May, with real wages decreasing for five consecutive months, exacerbating the economic challenges for the government [11].

Core Insights - Ericsson's stock has decreased by nearly 10% over the last five trading days despite a Q2 earnings report that exceeded expectations, attributed to macroeconomic concerns and cautious forecasts overshadowing margin improvements and a return to profitability [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted operating profit of SEK 7.0 billion (~$728 million), surpassing consensus estimates of SEK 6.1 billion, marking a recovery from a SEK 11.9 billion loss the previous year [3] - Gross margin increased to 47.5%, and EBITDA margin reached a three-year peak of 13.2%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3] - Revenue fell by 6% year-over-year to SEK 56.1 billion, impacted by a SEK 4.7 billion headwind from currency fluctuations, with organic growth limited to only 2% [4] Regional Performance - North America showed small gains, while significant declines were observed in India and Southeast Asia as telecom operators reduced expenditures following intense 5G rollouts [4] Market Challenges - Tariffs are squeezing margins despite efforts to localize production in the U.S., with management cautioning that these pressures could intensify [5] - Q3 forecasts fell short of expectations, with anticipated Networks sales expected to fall below seasonal patterns, while Cloud Software and Services are expected to keep pace with historical trends [5] Valuation Metrics - The stock is trading at a trailing P/E of approximately 14.5x, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 26.9x, and a forward P/E of 15–16x, marginally above its 10-year average of roughly 13x [6] - Price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.0x, aligning with its historical range, while price-to-free cash flow is merely 0.6 compared to 20.9 for the S&P 500 [6] Future Outlook - Sustained investor interest will likely depend on growth in underperforming regions, stabilization of tariff pressures, and margin enhancement beyond cost cuts [7]

Group 1 - The CEO of General Electric Aviation stated that the company cannot fully offset the pressure from tariffs on its own [1] - The company is currently in communication with airlines regarding the tariff impacts [1]

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have increased demand for safe-haven assets, yet a strong US dollar has limited the price increase of gold [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 0.14% to $3389.49 per ounce, while spot silver surged to a 13-year high, increasing by 2.32% to $37.13 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - May retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in four months, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties and tariff pressures [3] - Revenue from automobile and parts dealers fell by 3.5%, while gas station revenue decreased by 2.0%, and service sector indicators also showed a downturn [3] - Core retail sales increased by 0.4%, suggesting that consumer spending is still supported by robust wages, but overall economic slowdown signals cannot be ignored [3] Market Analysis - Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, noted that tariffs have distorted the timing of commodity purchases, and the risk of economic slowdown is increasing in the second half of the year [3] - Typically, economic uncertainty benefits gold prices; however, the strong performance of the dollar has constrained the potential for gold price increases [3]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved for the first time in six months, rising by 16% compared to the previous month, but remains approximately 20% lower than in December 2024, when confidence rebounded post-election [1][1][1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - All five components of the consumer confidence index have increased, with particularly significant gains in short-term and long-term expectations regarding business conditions, aligning with perceptions of eased tariff pressures [1][1] Economic Outlook - Consumers appear to have partially recovered from the impact of high tariffs announced in April and subsequent policy fluctuations, yet they still perceive widespread downside risks to the economy [1][1] Financial Sentiment - Despite the noticeable improvement in economic conditions this month, consumers maintain a cautious and worried outlook regarding the economy, with views on business conditions, personal financial situations, commodity purchasing conditions, labor market, and stock market all significantly lower than six months ago [1][1][1]