日本经济增长和物价前景

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关税冲击“没那么糟”?日本央行或比三个月前更加乐观!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-18 11:30
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to warn about the uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs in its upcoming quarterly report, but may express a more optimistic view on the recent shocks to the Japanese economy compared to three months ago [1] - The market anticipates that the BOJ will maintain the interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 30-31, with investors looking for clues regarding the timing of the next rate hike from the quarterly report [1][2] - Recent data has not shown any clear evidence of damage from U.S. tariffs or trade negotiations with Washington, with corporate confidence remaining stable according to the BOJ's quarterly survey [2] Group 2 - The BOJ's previous report projected Japan's economy to grow by 0.5% in FY2025, 0.7% in FY2026, and 1.0% in FY2027, and it is likely to maintain its view that inflation will reach the 2% target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period ending FY2027 [2] - Domestic prices in Japan have been consistently higher than expected, driven by rising food costs, which have pushed consumer inflation above the BOJ's 2% target [2][3] - Some BOJ policymakers, such as hawkish board member Naoki Tamura, have warned that cost-push inflation pressures could lead to second-round effects, potentially necessitating a return to rate hikes [3]