Core Viewpoint - The Oxford Economics report indicates a slight economic slowdown in Latin American countries by 2026, primarily due to persistent inflation in the food sector, weakened domestic demand, and the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth of the five major Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru) is expected to decline from 2.2% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, excluding Argentina [1] - Argentina's economic growth is projected to decrease from 4.3% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 [1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in these Latin American economies (excluding Argentina) is anticipated to remain high, with an expected inflation rate of 3.5% in 2026, highlighting ongoing issues in the food sector [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy price fluctuations, remains elevated in countries such as Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD's latest economic outlook report indicates that the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy is becoming more pronounced, particularly affecting spending choices, corporate costs, and consumer prices in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The total value of U.S. imports subject to tariffs has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, indicating that tariffs are suppressing overall demand in the U.S. [1] - Trade volumes are expected to remain under pressure due to these tariffs [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Inflation Outlook - With a cooling job market and tariffs raising consumer prices, household consumption growth in the U.S. is anticipated to continue slowing [1]. - Inflation may become more persistent, which could limit the scope for interest rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Market Risks - The current fiscal policy path in the U.S. is deemed unsustainable, and reducing the significant deficit is urgent [1]. - The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, indicating a high risk of significant market corrections [1].

Core Viewpoint - Europe is undergoing a rigorous economic health check this week, coinciding with policymakers' meetings to set interest rates, which will help assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth and inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone in Q3 will be released on Thursday, which is a key event for the week [1] - Analysts expect the region to maintain a minimum growth rate of 0.1%, achieved over the last three months until June [1] - Reports from major economies within the region will provide further details on economic performance [1] Group 2: Inflation Data - The inflation data for October will be published the following day, with expectations of a decrease from 2.2% last month to 2.1% [1] - The latest data will reflect how businesses and households are responding to the agreement reached between the EU and the U.S. in July [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Barclays Chief Economist Christian Keller noted that despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains weak [1] - The GDP data will reveal whether the anticipated recovery in private consumption by the European Central Bank has not yet materialized [1] - Given the backdrop of weak domestic demand, external headwinds, and low manufacturing capacity utilization, there are risks that investment activity may only recover slowly [1]

Group 1 - Japan's exports in July experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, marking the largest monthly drop since February 2021, and exceeding market expectations of a 2.1% decline [1][2] - Exports to the United States fell by 10.1% in July, with the automotive sector seeing a significant decrease of 28.4% and auto parts down by 17.4% [2] - Despite a 3.2% drop in the volume of automobile exports to the U.S., Japanese automakers managed to maintain shipment levels by absorbing some of the tariff costs [2] Group 2 - Japan's imports in July decreased by 7.5%, which was better than the market forecast of a 10.4% decline, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 5.73 billion RMB) [2] - The trade agreement reached in late July between Japan and the U.S. reduced tariffs from 25% to 15%, alleviating some uncertainty for the Japanese economy [3] - The Bank of Japan may consider resuming interest rate hikes as early as October due to the reduced uncertainty from the trade agreement [3]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets are facing the harshest punishment in decades for companies that fail to meet earnings expectations this quarter, as evidenced by the performance of the Stoxx Europe 600 index [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Goldman Sachs data indicates that stocks in the Stoxx Europe 600 index that missed earnings expectations or issued profit warnings underperformed the market by 2.3 percentage points, marking the worst performance since records began in 2005 [1] - The current earnings season has seen a lack of tolerance for weak financial reports, with analysts having already lowered expectations prior to the season due to the chaos and uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs [4] - Over 80% of MSCI Europe index constituents have reported earnings, with Q2 earnings per share year-on-year remaining flat, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 4.8% decline [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Reactions - Renault's stock plummeted 18% after the company lowered its 2025 operating profit margin forecast [4] - Puma's shares fell 16% following its earnings report, with analysts warning of an "identity crisis" for the company [4] - Novo Nordisk issued a significant profit warning, leading to a market value loss of over $90 billion [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Concerns - Market optimism regarding European growth has been partially priced in, leading to increased vulnerability in the face of downside risks and disappointment [4] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index is struggling to return to its historical high set in March, having lagged behind the S&P 500 index in the past three months as investors shift their focus back to the strong U.S. economy [5] - Concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Eurozone economic growth are negatively affecting investor sentiment in Europe, highlighted by a significant drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 index following new tariffs announced by President Trump [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ordered his team to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating a proactive approach to understanding trade dynamics [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The trade agreement does not imply a reduction in tariffs imposed by Japan on U.S. goods, suggesting that Japan may maintain its current tariff levels despite ongoing negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to warn about the uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs in its upcoming quarterly report, but may express a more optimistic view on the recent shocks to the Japanese economy compared to three months ago [1] - The market anticipates that the BOJ will maintain the interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 30-31, with investors looking for clues regarding the timing of the next rate hike from the quarterly report [1][2] - Recent data has not shown any clear evidence of damage from U.S. tariffs or trade negotiations with Washington, with corporate confidence remaining stable according to the BOJ's quarterly survey [2] Group 2 - The BOJ's previous report projected Japan's economy to grow by 0.5% in FY2025, 0.7% in FY2026, and 1.0% in FY2027, and it is likely to maintain its view that inflation will reach the 2% target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period ending FY2027 [2] - Domestic prices in Japan have been consistently higher than expected, driven by rising food costs, which have pushed consumer inflation above the BOJ's 2% target [2][3] - Some BOJ policymakers, such as hawkish board member Naoki Tamura, have warned that cost-push inflation pressures could lead to second-round effects, potentially necessitating a return to rate hikes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of external factors, particularly U.S. tariffs and political uncertainty, on the South Korean economy, overshadowing domestic political changes [1][5] - The Bank of Korea has conducted four interest rate cuts in 2025, lowering the rate to 2.5%, the lowest since August 2022, in response to political uncertainty and market volatility [1] - South Korea's GDP growth unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in Q1 2025, marking the first contraction since Q4 2020, leading the Bank of Korea to revise its GDP forecast for the year down from 1.5% to 0.8% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea warns of risks associated with rising housing prices, particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area, which could exacerbate household debt and threaten financial stability [3] - From December 2013 to May 2025, the cumulative increase in housing prices in Seoul outpaced the national average by 69.4 percentage points, indicating a growing disparity between capital and non-capital regions [3] - As of June 2025, housing prices in Seoul have continued to rise, with core area prices reaching 120,000 to 150,000 RMB per square meter, and some luxury apartments exceeding 500,000 RMB per unit [3] Group 3 - South Korea's household debt remains high at 91.7% of GDP, second only to Canada, with a continuous increase over 17 years, raising concerns about economic growth and financial stability [4] - The Bank of Korea aims to gradually reduce the household debt-to-GDP ratio to 80% to mitigate economic constraints [4] - To address the polarization in housing prices, the report emphasizes the need for government initiatives to develop regional cities and reduce excessive regional imbalances [4] Group 4 - The U.S. tariffs imposed on South Korea, including a 25% tariff and specific tariffs on steel and automotive industries, have created significant uncertainty in the capital markets [5] - Ongoing negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. have yet to yield substantial results, with the South Korean Trade Minister emphasizing the need to prioritize national interests in trade discussions [5] - The Bank of Korea reported a record high current account surplus of $118.23 billion with the U.S. in 2024, driven by strong U.S. domestic demand and increased investments from South Korea [6]

Group 1 - The Swiss Federal Council is consulting on the impact of U.S. tariffs and has reached a consensus on existing measures [1] - The overall economic development is not expected to decline [1]