彭博社12月10日报道，近日牛津经济研究院发布报告指出，预计2026年拉丁美洲国家 经济将出现小幅放缓，主要原因是食品领域通胀压力持续存在，内需走弱，美国关税 也将拖累整体增长。报告称，除阿根廷外，拉美五大经济体（即巴西、墨西哥、智 利、哥伦比亚和秘鲁）的经济增长将从2025年的2.2%放缓至2026年的1.9%。而阿根廷 的经济增长将从2025年的4.3%放缓至2026年的2.3%。与此同时，在这些拉丁美洲经济 体（不包括阿根廷）中，通胀仍将保持高位，预计2026年通胀水平为3.5%，食品通胀 仍是较为严重的问题。在巴西、哥伦比亚和墨西哥等国，剔除食品和能源价格波动后 的核心通胀依然居高不下。 （原标题：2026年拉美经济增长或小幅放缓） ...

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告说，美国关税对全球经济的影响正在进一 步显现，并传导至支出选择、企业成本以及消费价格。美国经济面临的这些影响尤为明显。 报告显示，美国涉及加征关税的进口商品总值较非征税进口商品明显下降，说明关税正抑制美国整体需 求，预计贸易量将继续承压。考虑到就业市场降温及关税抬高消费价格，预计美国家庭消费增长将继续 放缓，通胀可能更加持久，从而减少降息空间。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股票指 数周期调整市盈率接近历史高位，股市大幅调整风险较高。 （文章来源：新华网） ...

巴克莱首席经济学家克里Christian Keller指出："尽管就业市场强劲，消费者信心仍显疲软。GDP数据将 揭示欧洲央行预期的私人消费复苏是否仍未能实现。在内需疲软、外部逆风及制造业产能利用率低迷的 背景下，我们或许还将看到投资活动可能仅会缓慢复苏的风险。" 周四将公布欧元区第三季度GDP初值，这将是本周的主要事件。数据发布后仅数小时，欧洲央行就会揭 晓其为期两天的货币政策会议结果。分析师预计该地区将维持截至6月的三个月内实现的0.1%的最低增 长水平。该地区部分主要经济体国家的报告将提供更多细节。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月27日电 欧洲本周将接受一次严格的经济健康检查，在政策制定者开会制定利率之 际，这有助于评估美国关税对经济增长和通胀的影响。 几乎同样重要的是，次日将公布10月通胀数据，预计通胀率将从上月的2.2%回落至2.1%。最新数据将 显示，企业和家庭如何应对欧盟与美国7月达成的协议。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's exports in July experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, marking the largest monthly drop since February 2021, and exceeding market expectations of a 2.1% decline [1][2] - Exports to the United States fell by 10.1% in July, with the automotive sector seeing a significant decrease of 28.4% and auto parts down by 17.4% [2] - Despite a 3.2% drop in the volume of automobile exports to the U.S., Japanese automakers managed to maintain shipment levels by absorbing some of the tariff costs [2] Group 2 - Japan's imports in July decreased by 7.5%, which was better than the market forecast of a 10.4% decline, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 5.73 billion RMB) [2] - The trade agreement reached in late July between Japan and the U.S. reduced tariffs from 25% to 15%, alleviating some uncertainty for the Japanese economy [3] - The Bank of Japan may consider resuming interest rate hikes as early as October due to the reduced uncertainty from the trade agreement [3]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets are facing the harshest punishment in decades for companies that fail to meet earnings expectations this quarter, as evidenced by the performance of the Stoxx Europe 600 index [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Goldman Sachs data indicates that stocks in the Stoxx Europe 600 index that missed earnings expectations or issued profit warnings underperformed the market by 2.3 percentage points, marking the worst performance since records began in 2005 [1] - The current earnings season has seen a lack of tolerance for weak financial reports, with analysts having already lowered expectations prior to the season due to the chaos and uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs [4] - Over 80% of MSCI Europe index constituents have reported earnings, with Q2 earnings per share year-on-year remaining flat, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 4.8% decline [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Reactions - Renault's stock plummeted 18% after the company lowered its 2025 operating profit margin forecast [4] - Puma's shares fell 16% following its earnings report, with analysts warning of an "identity crisis" for the company [4] - Novo Nordisk issued a significant profit warning, leading to a market value loss of over $90 billion [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Concerns - Market optimism regarding European growth has been partially priced in, leading to increased vulnerability in the face of downside risks and disappointment [4] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index is struggling to return to its historical high set in March, having lagged behind the S&P 500 index in the past three months as investors shift their focus back to the strong U.S. economy [5] - Concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Eurozone economic growth are negatively affecting investor sentiment in Europe, highlighted by a significant drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 index following new tariffs announced by President Trump [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ordered his team to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating a proactive approach to understanding trade dynamics [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The trade agreement does not imply a reduction in tariffs imposed by Japan on U.S. goods, suggesting that Japan may maintain its current tariff levels despite ongoing negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to warn about the uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs in its upcoming quarterly report, but may express a more optimistic view on the recent shocks to the Japanese economy compared to three months ago [1] - The market anticipates that the BOJ will maintain the interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 30-31, with investors looking for clues regarding the timing of the next rate hike from the quarterly report [1][2] - Recent data has not shown any clear evidence of damage from U.S. tariffs or trade negotiations with Washington, with corporate confidence remaining stable according to the BOJ's quarterly survey [2] Group 2 - The BOJ's previous report projected Japan's economy to grow by 0.5% in FY2025, 0.7% in FY2026, and 1.0% in FY2027, and it is likely to maintain its view that inflation will reach the 2% target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period ending FY2027 [2] - Domestic prices in Japan have been consistently higher than expected, driven by rising food costs, which have pushed consumer inflation above the BOJ's 2% target [2][3] - Some BOJ policymakers, such as hawkish board member Naoki Tamura, have warned that cost-push inflation pressures could lead to second-round effects, potentially necessitating a return to rate hikes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of external factors, particularly U.S. tariffs and political uncertainty, on the South Korean economy, overshadowing domestic political changes [1][5] - The Bank of Korea has conducted four interest rate cuts in 2025, lowering the rate to 2.5%, the lowest since August 2022, in response to political uncertainty and market volatility [1] - South Korea's GDP growth unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in Q1 2025, marking the first contraction since Q4 2020, leading the Bank of Korea to revise its GDP forecast for the year down from 1.5% to 0.8% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea warns of risks associated with rising housing prices, particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area, which could exacerbate household debt and threaten financial stability [3] - From December 2013 to May 2025, the cumulative increase in housing prices in Seoul outpaced the national average by 69.4 percentage points, indicating a growing disparity between capital and non-capital regions [3] - As of June 2025, housing prices in Seoul have continued to rise, with core area prices reaching 120,000 to 150,000 RMB per square meter, and some luxury apartments exceeding 500,000 RMB per unit [3] Group 3 - South Korea's household debt remains high at 91.7% of GDP, second only to Canada, with a continuous increase over 17 years, raising concerns about economic growth and financial stability [4] - The Bank of Korea aims to gradually reduce the household debt-to-GDP ratio to 80% to mitigate economic constraints [4] - To address the polarization in housing prices, the report emphasizes the need for government initiatives to develop regional cities and reduce excessive regional imbalances [4] Group 4 - The U.S. tariffs imposed on South Korea, including a 25% tariff and specific tariffs on steel and automotive industries, have created significant uncertainty in the capital markets [5] - Ongoing negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. have yet to yield substantial results, with the South Korean Trade Minister emphasizing the need to prioritize national interests in trade discussions [5] - The Bank of Korea reported a record high current account surplus of $118.23 billion with the U.S. in 2024, driven by strong U.S. domestic demand and increased investments from South Korea [6]

Group 1 - The Swiss Federal Council is consulting on the impact of U.S. tariffs and has reached a consensus on existing measures [1] - The overall economic development is not expected to decline [1]