Core Insights - The number of high school graduates in China is projected to decline, leading to a widening gap between college admissions and high school enrollment, with the "scissor difference" increasing from 767,000 in 2021 to 2,731,000 in 2024 [1][3][8] - The decrease in high school enrollment is primarily attributed to a reduction in repeat students and those with vocational school diplomas seeking university admission [4][6] - The expansion of vocational colleges has slowed down, stabilizing at around 5.5 million enrollments since 2022, while the number of high school graduates continues to rise significantly [9][21] Enrollment Trends - In 2023, the total number of high school graduates was 12.91 million, with 4.871 million admitted to undergraduate programs and 5.551 million to vocational colleges [2][3] - The gap between high school graduates and college admissions has been increasing, indicating a mismatch between the number of students and available spots in higher education [6][8] - The enrollment ratio of vocational schools has decreased significantly, with a notable decline in the number of vocational school admissions since 2022 [21][23] Regional Analysis - In provinces like Henan and Guangdong, the number of high school students remains high, but Henan has a larger average class size compared to Guangdong [12][13] - Henan has the highest number of higher education institutions in China, but a significant portion of these are vocational colleges, indicating a reliance on vocational education [14][15] - The enrollment trends in different provinces show that while most regions follow the national trend, Guizhou has seen a significant increase in vocational school admissions, contrasting with the national decline in vocational enrollments [25][26] Policy Implications - The "vocational and academic separation" policy remains crucial in China's education system, with ongoing discussions about optimizing this policy to better align vocational education with labor market needs [20][18] - The need for skilled labor in specific sectors emphasizes the importance of vocational education, which is currently undervalued in the broader educational framework [18][19]