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FICC日报:股指回调,关注业绩-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 06:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a co - existence of shrinking - volume rise and expanding - volume adjustment, indicating heavy selling pressure and potential short - term adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to avoid chasing high and wait for re - entry opportunities. As the performance disclosure window nears the end, stocks and sectors with under - expected performance should be avoided [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Sino - US meeting reached a consensus. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year, and suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control and the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [1]. - Index callback: In the spot market, A - share major indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73% to 3986.9 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.84%. Sector indices mostly declined, with steel, non - ferrous metals, and public utilities leading the gains, while communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, and media sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling 1.57% to 23581.144 points [1]. - Futures index position increase: In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM continued to rise. There was a divergence in trading volume and open interest, with both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increasing [1]. Strategy - The market presents a situation where shrinking - volume rise and expanding - volume adjustment co - exist, suggesting heavy selling pressure and potential short - term adjustment pressure. Investors should avoid chasing high and wait for re - entry opportunities. As the performance disclosure window nears the end, stocks and sectors with under - expected performance should be avoided [2]. Macro - economic Charts No specific chart analysis content provided, only chart names such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, etc. [4][5] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on October 30, 2025: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3986.90 (down 0.73% from the previous day), the Shenzhen Component Index was 13691.38 (up 1.95% from the previous day), the ChiNext Index was 3263.02 (down 1.84% from the previous day), the CSI 300 Index was 4709.91 (down 0.80% from the previous day), the SSE 50 Index was 3046.61 (down 0.54% from the previous day), the CSI 500 Index was 7385.71 (down 1.27% from the previous day), and the CSI 1000 Index was 7485.08 (down 1.11% from the previous day) [11]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - Futures index trading volume and open interest: For IF, the trading volume was 137376 (up 36443 from the previous day), and the open interest was 270734 (up 12176 from the previous day); for IH, the trading volume was 63949 (up 18844 from the previous day), and the open interest was 102044 (up 7069 from the previous day); for IC, the trading volume was 168288 (up 33521 from the previous day), and the open interest was 260211 (up 7396 from the previous day); for IM, the trading volume was 248653 (up 61017 from the previous day), and the open interest was 369079 (up 20311 from the previous day) [13][14]. - Futures index basis: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM in different contracts (monthly, quarterly) showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 8.51 (down 4.07 from the previous day) [36]. - Futures index inter - period spreads: The spreads between different periods (such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of IF was - 11.40 (down 0.60 from the previous day) [43][44].