期货价格震荡调整
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豆粕期货日报-20250808
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:14
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 6, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - The price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract fluctuated within a range today, rising first and then falling. The good weather in the Midwest of the United States has hindered the rise of CBOT soybean futures prices. Although the increase in the import cost of domestic imported soybeans supports the futures price of soybean meal, the fact that the supply of soybean meal currently exceeds demand may cause the price of the m2509 contract to continue to fluctuate and adjust [10]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On August 6, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract rose first and then fell, fluctuating within the day. It closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. The daily K-line closed in a negative line. The full-day trading volume was 945,564 lots, and the open interest was 1,203,970 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Among the 8 contracts of soybean meal futures, prices rose and fell. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,771,882 lots, an increase of 10,102 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract m2509 decreased by 71,233 lots, while the open interest of the m2601 contract increased by 52,856 lots [2]. 4.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: On August 6, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,910 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 2,970 yuan, down 30 yuan; in Rizhao, it was 2,890 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan, it remained unchanged at 2,910 yuan [5][6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal in various warehouses remained unchanged, with a total of 10,950 lots [7]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: Brazilian soybean sales in the 2025/26 season reached 16.8% of the expected output, compared with 22.5% in the same period last year; in the 2024/25 season, sales reached 78.4% of the expected output, compared with 82.2% in the same period last year. Today, the import cost of soybeans increased, with US soybeans up 1 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans up 10 yuan/ton, and Argentine soybeans up 27 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Basis Data**: A chart of the soybean meal futures basis trend was provided, but specific data was not elaborated [9]. 4.4 Market Outlook - The price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust due to the good weather in the US Midwest and the current supply - demand imbalance of soybean meal in the domestic market [10].