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沪锌期货早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai Zinc ZN2507 is to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound in Shanghai Zinc, with the price closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the support of the moving average strengthened. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - short forces were in a stalemate. [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, which is bullish. [2] - The basis is +355 (spot price is 22,740), which is bullish. [2] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, which is bearish. [2] - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish. [2] - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [2] 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On June 6, for the zinc futures contracts, different delivery months had different price movements. For example, the contract 2507 opened at 22,380, with a high of 22,450, a low of 22,255, and closed at 22,340, down 40 from the previous day. [3] 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On June 6, in the domestic main spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,530 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,740 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,936 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,303 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,210 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,880 yuan/ton. [4] 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From May 12 to June 5, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets changed. Compared with the same period last week, the total inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons, and compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 0.17 million tons. [5] - On June 6, the total SHFE zinc warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, with 1,027 tons in Tianjin, 977 tons in Guangdong, and 0 tons in other regions. [6] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, with registered warrants of 75,100 tons, cancelled warrants of 61,875 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 45.17%. [8] 3.5 Price Summaries - On June 6, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 17,530 yuan/ton, with varying price drops in different regions, such as - 190 yuan/ton in some areas and - 290 yuan/ton in others. [9] - On June 6, the price of 0 zinc ingot from different manufacturers, such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 190 yuan/ton. [13] 3.6 Production Statistics - In April 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production for May was 444,100 tons. [15] 3.7 Processing Fee Quotes - On June 6, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,300 to 3,700 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for 48% - grade imported zinc concentrate was 40 US dollars/kiloton. [17] 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2507 on June 6, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (47,439 lots, an increase of 8,553 lots), Guotai Junan (45,730 lots, an increase of 1,424 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (29,114 lots, an increase of 4,766 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,132 lots, a decrease of 1,065 lots), Guotai Junan (10,354 lots, a decrease of 1,455 lots), and Huatai Futures (5,184 lots, an increase of 1,140 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (12,928 lots, an increase of 660 lots), Guotai Junan (8,432 lots, a decrease of 667 lots), and Yong'an Futures (5,211 lots, a decrease of 708 lots). [18]