交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为104元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为636.83元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年11月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，12月5日当周，沪锡库存继续累积，周度库存增加7.96%至6865吨，增 至逾两个月新高。 （文华综合） 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存先增后降，12月3日库存增至近八个月新高，而 后库存出现回落，本周库存继续下滑，最新库存水平为3050吨。 ...

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in copper inventory, reaching 159,425 tons, marking a six-month high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a decrease in copper inventory by 11.46% to 97,930 tons, the lowest in one and a half months [1] - International copper inventory fell by 675 tons to 12,077 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 418,727 tons, a phase high [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 157,175 tons on November 27 to 159,425 tons on November 28 [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 110,603 tons on November 21 to 97,930 tons on November 28 [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 415,880 tons on November 25 to 418,727 tons on November 28 [4] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in domestic and international exchange inventories supports copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in tin inventory, with the latest level at 2,385 tons, marking a new low in over a month [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of October 10, tin inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5,879 tons, reaching a near two-year low [2] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, etc.) showed different degrees of change from August 12th to September 10th. For example, the BU主力合约 price was 3506 on August 12th and 3450 on September 10th, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of -101 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on September 10th was 222,817, with a daily increase of 41,170 and a weekly decrease of 127,075. The open interest was 436,057, with a daily decrease of 940 and a weekly decrease of 55,837 [4]. Delivery Quantity - The delivery quantity remained at 26,890 from September 8th to 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2,900 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) also had changes. For instance, the Shandong market price increased by 10 to 3,540 on September 10th compared to September 9th, with no weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis and calendar spread of different contracts (03 - 06, 06 - 09, etc.) showed fluctuations. For example, the 06 - 09 basis had a daily increase of 63 and a weekly increase of 36 on September 10th [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 89 on September 10th, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly increase of 67. Different types of refinery profits (ordinary refinery, Ma Rui - type refinery) also had corresponding changes [4]. Import Profit - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -101 on September 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 49. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -923, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also had certain changes. For example, Brent crude oil was priced at 66.4 on September 10th, with a daily increase of 0.4 and a weekly decrease of 1.2 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive)**: Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - **PVC Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **PVC Inventory**: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in tin inventory last week, with the latest inventory level at 1,875 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that tin inventory rose by 3.42% to 7,671 tons for the week ending August 1, marking a two-month high [1] - Generally, a decline in inventory levels at domestic and international exchanges supports price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory since July 2025 shows fluctuations in inventory levels, with LME inventory decreasing from 1,950 tons on August 1 to 1,875 tons by August 5 [4][5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased from 7,417 tons on July 25 to 7,671 tons on August 1, indicating a significant rise in domestic inventory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai Zinc ZN2507 is to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound in Shanghai Zinc, with the price closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the support of the moving average strengthened. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - short forces were in a stalemate. [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, which is bullish. [2] - The basis is +355 (spot price is 22,740), which is bullish. [2] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, which is bearish. [2] - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish. [2] - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [2] 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On June 6, for the zinc futures contracts, different delivery months had different price movements. For example, the contract 2507 opened at 22,380, with a high of 22,450, a low of 22,255, and closed at 22,340, down 40 from the previous day. [3] 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On June 6, in the domestic main spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,530 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,740 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,936 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,303 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,210 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,880 yuan/ton. [4] 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From May 12 to June 5, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets changed. Compared with the same period last week, the total inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons, and compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 0.17 million tons. [5] - On June 6, the total SHFE zinc warrants remained unchanged at 2,004 tons, with 1,027 tons in Tianjin, 977 tons in Guangdong, and 0 tons in other regions. [6] - On June 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 136,975 tons, with registered warrants of 75,100 tons, cancelled warrants of 61,875 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 45.17%. [8] 3.5 Price Summaries - On June 6, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 17,530 yuan/ton, with varying price drops in different regions, such as - 190 yuan/ton in some areas and - 290 yuan/ton in others. [9] - On June 6, the price of 0 zinc ingot from different manufacturers, such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 190 yuan/ton. [13] 3.6 Production Statistics - In April 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production for May was 444,100 tons. [15] 3.7 Processing Fee Quotes - On June 6, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,300 to 3,700 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for 48% - grade imported zinc concentrate was 40 US dollars/kiloton. [17] 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2507 on June 6, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (47,439 lots, an increase of 8,553 lots), Guotai Junan (45,730 lots, an increase of 1,424 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (29,114 lots, an increase of 4,766 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,132 lots, a decrease of 1,065 lots), Guotai Junan (10,354 lots, a decrease of 1,455 lots), and Huatai Futures (5,184 lots, an increase of 1,140 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (12,928 lots, an increase of 660 lots), Guotai Junan (8,432 lots, a decrease of 667 lots), and Yong'an Futures (5,211 lots, a decrease of 708 lots). [18]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on asphalt - related market indicators, including prices, volumes, spreads, and profits. 3. Summary by Categories Futures Contracts - BU主力合约 price on 5/22 was 3539, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 18 [4]. - BU06 price on 5/22 was 3555, with a daily change of 15 and a weekly change of 31 [4]. - BU09 price on 5/22 was 3481, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 34 [4]. - BU12 price on 5/22 was 3301, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 34 [4]. - BU03 price on 5/22 was 3250, with a daily change of T and a weekly change of - 6 [4]. - Futures trading volume on 5/22 was 381836, with a daily change of 42169 and a weekly change of 93530 [4]. - Futures open interest on 5/22 was 419968, with a daily change of 18789 and a weekly change of 53795 [4]. Spot Market - Shandong market low - end price remained at 3450 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - East China market low - end price was 3520 on 5/22, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 [4]. - South China market low - end price remained at 3380 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - North China market low - end price was 3570 on 5/22, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 [4]. - Northeast market low - end price remained at 3700 on 5/22, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - Shandong basis on 5/22 was - 89, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 18 [4]. - East China basis on 5/22 was - 19, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of 2 [4]. - South China basis on 5/22 was - 159, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 18 [4]. - 03 - 06 spread on 5/22 was - 302, with a daily change of - 14 and a weekly change of - 37 [4]. - 06 - 09 spread on 5/22 was 71, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of - 3 [4]. - 09 - 12 spread on 5/22 was 180, with a daily change of - 5 and no weekly change [4]. - 12 - 03 spread on 5/22 was 51, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 40 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - Asphalt Brent crack spread on 5/22 was 37, with a daily change of ટર and a weekly change of - 20 [4]. - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 5/22 was 457, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of - 2 [4]. - Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit on 5/22 was 81, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of - 3 [4]. - Import profit (South Korea - East China) on 5/22 was - 108, with no daily change and a weekly change of 18 [4]. - Import profit (Singapore - South China) on 5/22 was - 1015, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil price on 5/22 was 64.9, with a daily change of - 0.5 and a weekly change of 0.4 [4]. - Gasoline Shandong market price on 5/22 was 7415, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 49 [4]. - Diesel Shandong market price on 5/22 was 6431, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 8 [4]. - Residue oil Shandong market price on 5/22 was 3795, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 5 [4].