以下为2026年1月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/2/25 | 7, 680 | | | 2026/2/24 | 7, 655 | | | 2026/2/23 | 7, 675 | | | 2026/2/20 | 7, 660 | | | 2026/2/19 | 7, 645 | | | 2026/2/18 | 7, 645 | | | 2026/2/17 | 7, 655 | | | 2026/2/16 | 7, 680 | | | 2026/2/13 | 7, 440 | 11, 014 | | 2026/2/12 | 7, 490 | | | 2026/2/11 | 7, 550 | | | 2026/2/10 | 7, 430 | | | 2026/2/9 | 7, 030 | | | 2026/2/6 | 7, 085 | 8, 750 | | 2026/2/5 | 7, 130 | | | 2026/2/4 | 7,110 | | | 2026/2/3 | 7, 095 | | | 2026/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that tin inventories showed a fluctuating pattern last week, with overall inventory levels remaining stable at 7,095 tons, which is relatively high compared to the past two years [1]. Group 1: Inventory Data - LME's latest tin inventory level is 7,095 tons, which has not changed significantly over the past week [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 7.7% increase in tin inventory for the week ending January 30, reaching 10,468 tons, marking a near five-month high [1]. - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories shows that LME inventory has remained stable while Shanghai's inventory has increased significantly [4][5]. Group 2: Market Implications - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase in inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3].

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a significant increase in tin inventory, reaching 6,960 tons, marking a two-year high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also noted a substantial rise in tin inventory, with a weekly increase of 37.69% to 9,549 tons, the highest level in nearly nine months [1] Inventory Comparison - As of January 20, 2026, LME tin inventory was 6,960 tons, up from 6,440 tons on January 19, 2026, and 5,935 tons on January 16, 2026 [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a tin inventory of 9,549 tons on January 16, 2026, with previous levels being 5,925 tons on January 15, 2026, and 5,930 tons on January 14, 2026 [4] Market Implications - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. Supply scheduling has decreased but remains at a high level. - Demand side: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.00%, showing a rise in demand. However, overall demand recovery is at a low level. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 8,780 yuan/ton [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week's polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The scheduled output for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. Supply scheduling continues to decline. - Demand side: Downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have all seen a continuous decline in production, with overall demand showing a continuous recession. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton, with cost support remaining stable. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59,235 - 61,255 yuan/ton [7][8][9]. Overall Market - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 88,000 tons last week, flat week - on - week. - Demand: 81,000 tons last week, up 8.00% week - on - week. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, down 1.42% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,500 tons, up 2.94% week - on - week; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, up 1.47% week - on - week. - Basis: On December 19th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was 510 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output of 25,000 tons last week, down 0.39% week - on - week; December scheduled output of 113,500 tons, down 0.95% month - on - month. - Demand: Downstream production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all in decline. - Cost: Average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,600 yuan/ton, and production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton. - Basis: On December 19th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was - 7,845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week, at a historically high level. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [7][8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 0.64% in the 09 contract and a decrease of 0.06% in the 07 contract. - Basis: Most contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 8.11% in the 05 contract. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9,019, an increase of 2.31% [16][17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 2.29% in the 11 contract. - Basis: All contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 15.32% in the 02 contract. - Inventory: Weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract basis of industrial silicon and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21][22]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon [24][25]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - Delivery warehouse and port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in various regions and ports. - SMM sample enterprise inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. - Registered warehouse receipt volume: The report shows the historical trends of the number of registered warehouse receipts [27][28][29]. 7. Industrial Silicon Output and Capacity Utilization Trends - SMM sample enterprise weekly output: The report shows the historical trends of output in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. - Industrial silicon monthly output by specification: The report shows the historical trends of output of 421, non - oxygen - passing 553, oxygen - passing 553, and other types of silicon. - SMM sample enterprise capacity utilization: The report shows the historical trends of capacity utilization in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan [31][32][33]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends The report shows the historical trends of cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [38][39]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Weekly supply - demand balance: The report shows the historical trends of production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon. - Monthly supply - demand balance: The report shows the actual consumption, export volume, import volume, production, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from November 2024 to November 2025 [40][43][44]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC price and production trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, output, and price. - Downstream price trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4. - Import - export and inventory trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [46][48][52]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, aluminum alloy import - export, ADC12 price, and import cost - profit. - Output and production capacity trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly output of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. - Demand (automobiles and wheels): The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly output, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [56][58][61]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, output, operating rate, and demand. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 to October 2025. - Silicon wafer trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, output, inventory, demand, and net export. - Battery cell trends: The report shows the historical trends of battery cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export. - Photovoltaic component trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, inventory, output, and export. - Photovoltaic accessory trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, film import - export, glass output, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export. - Component composition cost - profit trends (210mm): The report shows the cost - profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation [64][67][70].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that tin inventory initially increased and then decreased, reaching a near eight-month high of 3,050 tons on December 3, before declining again in the following week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that tin inventory continued to accumulate, with a weekly increase of 7.96% to 6,865 tons, marking a new high in over two months as of December 5 [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories since November 2025 shows significant fluctuations in inventory levels [4]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in copper inventory, reaching 159,425 tons, marking a six-month high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a decrease in copper inventory by 11.46% to 97,930 tons, the lowest in one and a half months [1] - International copper inventory fell by 675 tons to 12,077 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 418,727 tons, a phase high [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 157,175 tons on November 27 to 159,425 tons on November 28 [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 110,603 tons on November 21 to 97,930 tons on November 28 [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 415,880 tons on November 25 to 418,727 tons on November 28 [4] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in domestic and international exchange inventories supports copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in tin inventory, with the latest level at 2,385 tons, marking a new low in over a month [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of October 10, tin inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5,879 tons, reaching a near two-year low [2] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, etc.) showed different degrees of change from August 12th to September 10th. For example, the BU主力合约 price was 3506 on August 12th and 3450 on September 10th, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of -101 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on September 10th was 222,817, with a daily increase of 41,170 and a weekly decrease of 127,075. The open interest was 436,057, with a daily decrease of 940 and a weekly decrease of 55,837 [4]. Delivery Quantity - The delivery quantity remained at 26,890 from September 8th to 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2,900 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) also had changes. For instance, the Shandong market price increased by 10 to 3,540 on September 10th compared to September 9th, with no weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis and calendar spread of different contracts (03 - 06, 06 - 09, etc.) showed fluctuations. For example, the 06 - 09 basis had a daily increase of 63 and a weekly increase of 36 on September 10th [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 89 on September 10th, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly increase of 67. Different types of refinery profits (ordinary refinery, Ma Rui - type refinery) also had corresponding changes [4]. Import Profit - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -101 on September 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 49. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -923, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also had certain changes. For example, Brent crude oil was priced at 66.4 on September 10th, with a daily increase of 0.4 and a weekly decrease of 1.2 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive)**: Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - **PVC Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **PVC Inventory**: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].