Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will experience a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. The market's short - term outlook is also expected to be weakening due to factors such as the long - term average price support, the short - term KDJ index rising in the weak zone, and the trend indicator showing an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the two forces becoming more evenly matched. [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation. [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,550, with a basis of + 135, suggesting a positive situation. [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On November 27, the LME zinc inventory increased by 875 tons to 50,800 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, presenting a neutral situation. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27. [2][5] 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, suggesting a negative situation. [2] 6. Zinc Futures Market on November 27 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on that day was 172,956 lots, with a total trading value of 1.94385952 billion yuan. The open interest was 189,741 lots, a decrease of 329 lots. [3] 7. Domestic Spot Market on November 27 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 80 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions ranged from 22,310 - 22,660 yuan/ton. [4] 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Major Markets from November 17 - 27 - The total inventory decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27, a decrease of 19,400 tons compared to November 20 and 11,200 tons compared to November 24. [5] 9. SHFE Zinc Warrants Report on November 27 - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 69,118 tons, a decrease of 2,502 tons compared to the previous day. [6] 10. LME Zinc Inventory on November 27 - The LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 875 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants of 45,325 tons and cancelled warrants of 5,475 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 10.78%. [8] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production for November was 522,300 tons. [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on November 27 - The processing fees for zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. [17] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 27 - The total trading volume of members was 179,536 lots, an increase of 31,801 lots. The total long position was 71,497 lots, a decrease of 406 lots, and the total short position was 71,943 lots, an increase of 1,795 lots. [18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market shows a trend of rising and then falling, with the stock index facing issues such as insufficient trading volume and weak short - term technical trends. The bond market is affected by factors like Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [9][10] - In the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and remain bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. For ferroalloys, there are opportunities to go long on ferrosilicon and engage in the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. [12][14][15] - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, zinc and lead prices are in a downward oscillation trend, with suggestions to hold short positions cautiously. Lithium carbonate shows wide - range oscillations, while industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to oscillate. [19][20][22] - In the agricultural products market, cotton oscillates and rebounds, sugar is under pressure but with cost support, eggs are expected to oscillate, apples are expected to be slightly bullish, and corn, dates, and live pigs have their own market characteristics and trends. [27][28][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is in a long - term downward trend, fuel oil follows oil price fluctuations, plastics are in a weak oscillation, and other energy and chemical products also have their own market outlooks. [40][41][43] Summaries by Directory Macro News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang discussed multiple important matters, including promoting high - quality development, medical insurance, and relevant regulations. Vanke's stocks and bonds declined sharply. China and Malaysia communicated on the "Malaysia - US Equivalent Trade Agreement". The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a business delegation to visit the US in early December. From January to October, the national industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year, but decreased in October. The NDRC studied price - related work. Putin stated that the US delegation will visit Moscow, and the ECB strengthened the expectation of the end of the interest - rate cut cycle. [6][7] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt an oscillation strategy and temporarily wait and see. The A - share market rose and then fell, with issues such as insufficient trading volume. The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. The short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the market's anti - fragility is insufficient. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is affected by Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales. The current capital situation is generally loose, and the bond market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [10] Black Metal Steel and Ore - In terms of policy, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on the macro - expectations of the market next year. On the fundamental side, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply side may see a decline in molten iron production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. [11][12] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. Pay attention to the impact of coal mine production, safety supervision, and changes in molten iron production. [14] Ferroalloys - The ferrosilicon market has opportunities to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and pay attention to the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of electricity settlement in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia on the market. [15] Non - ferrous and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels or take profits temporarily and operate cyclically. The zinc price is in a downward oscillation trend with the possibility of a phased rebound. [19] Lead - The domestic lead inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lead price has a slight rebound, and the import lead trading activity is not high. [20][21] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is in wide - range oscillations, with a game between short - term bearishness and long - term optimism. The recent demand shows signs of weakening, but the long - term demand is still promising. [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space and continues to oscillate. Polysilicon also continues to oscillate, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Affected by factors such as large supply pressure and weak demand, it oscillates and rebounds. The USDA report is bearish, and the domestic supply pressure remains. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, supporting its rebound. [27][28] Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure from supply surplus, but cost support limits the decline. It is recommended to wait and see. [28][29] Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and consumption has not improved significantly. The spot price is expected to be weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short at high levels with proper position control. [31] Apples - The apple market is expected to be slightly bullish. The apple storage is nearly finished, and the出库 has started. The inventory is lower than last year, and attention should be paid to consumption dynamics. [33] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the spot price may回调, but the decline space is limited. [35] Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level, and the futures price is weak. [36][37] Live Pigs - In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels for near - month contracts. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to future pig prices. [38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, affected by factors such as EIA inventory accumulation and geopolitical negotiations. It is recommended to short at high levels. [40] Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price fluctuations. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Russia and the OPEC+ meeting. [41] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation strategy. [43] Rubber - It is recommended to take profits appropriately for the ru - nr spread. It is short - term bullish due to weather factors, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. [44] Synthetic Rubber - It may still have downward space. It is recommended to short at high levels. The restart of maintenance devices at the end of the month and in December may put further pressure on the price. [45] Methanol - The near - month and far - month contracts are recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. If the inventory reduction is smooth, a slightly long - position configuration can be considered. [46] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weak, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. [47] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [48] Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to continue the oscillation adjustment in the short - term, affected by factors such as the decline in blending oil sentiment and weakening terminal demand. [50] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It may turn from strong to weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. The weakening of oil prices may accelerate its decline. [50] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to enter an oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see. [51] Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season. [52] Urea - The现货 price may oscillate strongly, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy. [53]

| | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22415 | 60 01-02月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -30 | -20 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3055 | 55.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 189741 | -329 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 2728 | -1037 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 100347 | -545 LME库存(日,吨) | 49925 | 1925 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22450 | 50 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22420 | 100 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 35 | -10 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 164.86 | 44.09 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22500，基差+145；偏多。 3、库存：11月26日LME锌库存较上日增加1925吨至49925吨，11月26日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少2199至71620吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai Zinc futures are expected to experience a fluctuating downward trend, specifically for the ZN2601 contract [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,480, with a basis of +120, also a bullish factor [2]. - On November 25th, LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 822 to 73,819 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, a neutral signal [2]. - The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, a bearish factor [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 25th - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on this day totaled 146,121 lots, with a total trading value of 1.63291271 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,891 lots, a decrease of 2,396 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 25th - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,430 - 22,530 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,250 - 22,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,350 - 22,450 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17th and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20th [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 25th - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on this day were 73,819 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 25th - The total LME zinc inventory on this day was 48,000 tons, an increase of 575 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 44,950 tons and a cancelled warrant of 3,050 tons, accounting for 6.35% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 25th - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in various regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 18,220 - 18,620 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 25th - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 20 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22,100 - 23,100 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and an increase of 2.88% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 25th - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the 48% grade imported processing fee was 80 US dollars/dry ton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 25th - The total trading volume of members was 129,813 lots, a decrease of 26,325 lots. The total long position was 73,293 lots, an increase of 1,696 lots, and the total short position was 68,587 lots, an increase of 2,605 lots [17]. Short - Term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing with a small阳线, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Overall, it was a shrinking - volume fluctuation. The price fluctuated, and while long positions entered actively, short positions suppressed more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, the price closed near the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average; the short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - and short - position forces began to be in a stalemate [18].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-11-25 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 需采购为主，氛围有所回暖，现货升水回升，国内库存小幅下降；LME锌库存回升，但现货升水高位。技 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 术面，持仓减量价格调整，多空交投谨慎，关注MA60支撑。观点参考：预计沪锌震荡调整，关注2.23-2.26 免责声明 。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily wait and observe, and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The overall surplus pressure is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider low - level opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19]. - **Crude Oil**: Focus on short - term long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Temporarily wait and observe for the main contract [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to have a wide - range consolidation with limited downward space, and pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [36]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [39]. - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and control risks [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45]. - **Copper**: Expected to have a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to have a phased correction [50]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: Expected to have a wide - range oscillation [54]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to rise [55]. - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on corrections [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak [67][68]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [72][73]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong [75]. - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds and follow consumption changes [78]. - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions and then temporarily wait and observe [82]. - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, it is advisable to wait and observe; corn starch may follow the corn market [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 21, with a net investment of 162.2 billion yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the management measures for central budget - inner investment in rural revitalization [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 930.32, up 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 938.68; the silver main contract closed at 11,808, up 1.10%, and the night - session closed at 11,975 [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected Fed rate cuts are also beneficial to precious metals [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,090 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Situation**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious [12]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 795 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Situation**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak [16]. - **Industry Situation**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and the supply has increased. For coke, the fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price has been implemented, but the demand from steel mills may weaken [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.50% to 5,630 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.04% to 5,456 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the output has decreased. The overall surplus pressure has weakened [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for three consecutive weeks. The "28 - point" new plan has brought new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [20][21]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting a low and closed below the moving average group [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The narrowing of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the new plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for fuel oil prices [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market oscillated downward, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [26]. - **Industry Situation**: The average start - up rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased. The demand for modified PP and PP non - woven fabrics is strong, while the demand for traditional PP products is weak [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.81%. The price in Shandong was adjusted down to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Industry Situation**: The international oil price is low, the supply of butadiene is loose, and the supply of synthetic rubber is also loose. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.10%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.53%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly [31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.47%, and the spot price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis was stable [33]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of PVC exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has increased this week, and the demand is mixed. The cost and profit have changed [33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.15%. The price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened [37]. - **Industry Situation**: The total production of urea has increased, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the demand from downstream products has changed differently. The inventory of urea enterprises is lower than expected [37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit was stable [39]. - **Industry Situation**: The PX load has increased, and the import volume has decreased. The short - term PXN spread is strong, and the supply has decreased slightly. The cost side is oscillating, and there is a lack of driving force [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.04% [40]. - **Industry Situation**: The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load is stable, and the processing fee has declined. The cost side is weak, and the raw material PX price support is limited [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.68% [41]. - **Industry Situation**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port inventory is stable, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is weak [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.91% [42]. - **Industry Situation**: The short - fiber supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.28% [44]. - **Industry Situation**: The raw material price support is limited, the bottle chips load is stable, the export growth rate has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The main logic lies in the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton [45]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [46]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the smelting profit is poor, and the demand from the real economy is weak. The global liquidity is loose, which provides support for copper prices [47]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [49]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is seasonally weak, and the aluminum price may be under pressure in the short term [49]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [51]. - **Industry Situation**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined rapidly, and some smelting enterprises are in losses. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [51]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [53]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of secondary lead is growing slowly, and the demand from the battery sector is mixed. The inventory has increased [53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.05% to 294,380 yuan/ton [55]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production of smelters is affected, and the demand has certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton [56]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron plants is affected, and the demand from the stainless steel sector is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and the market is in surplus [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.20% to 3,011 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.46% to 8,168 yuan/ton [57]. - **Industry Situation**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, and the US soybean harvest is basically completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [57][58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export volume from November 1 - 20 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [59]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of palm oil may be affected by the exchange rate and demand. The production may decline seasonally, and the inventory may decrease [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose slightly. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by the crude oil price. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed [61][62]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level [62]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated higher, and the overnight external cotton rebounded slightly [64]. - **Industry Situation**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [64][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overnight external raw sugar

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: The lead price oscillated and declined. The raw material support weakened, and the supply tightness improved, putting pressure on the lead price. The terminal market improved, and the demand for lead batteries increased. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The fundamentals of the zinc market remained weak, and the short - term zinc price might be under pressure. In the medium term, the ore supply would tighten in the fourth quarter, providing some support to the zinc price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On November 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,135 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,992 dollars/ton, up 0.15%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 22,310, down 0.27% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: There was no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee was likely to rise. Some refineries had maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuated slightly. The operation rate of secondary lead in Anhui increased after the refinery resumed production, while that in Henan decreased due to environmental protection. The demand for lead batteries improved, and the demand side increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The LME lead inventory was 265,275 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 29,556 tons, down 1.33% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 3,003 dollars/ton, up 0.37%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, down 0.39% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Refineries actively purchased domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee was expected to decline. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm improved, and the monthly output was expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side was weak, and the operation rate of some downstream enterprises decreased due to environmental protection and cold weather [1]. - **Inventory**: The LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 74,641 tons, up 2.39%. As of November 24, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 151,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous periods [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile trend in the previous trading session, closing with a doji star, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volatile market with high trading volume. In the short term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, while the trend indicator is rising, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, indicating a stalemate between the two sides. The Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, and consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons. From January to September, global zinc ore production was 9.9647 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,470, and the basis was +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On November 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 47,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,744 to 74,641 tons compared to the previous day, which is a negative factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main net position was short, and the short positions decreased, which is a negative factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 24 was 190,745 lots, and the trading value was 2.13195037 billion yuan. The total open interest was 193,287 lots, a decrease of 1,957 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,420 - 22,520 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,230 - 22,330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,510 - 22,610 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets in China on November 24 was 151,700 tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 24 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 24 were 74,641 tons, an increase of 1,744 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 24 - The previous day's inventory was 47,325 tons, with 600 tons of warehousing and 500 tons of ex - warehousing. The current inventory was 47,425 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The registered warrants were 44,350 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 6.48% [8]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 24 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased, with increases ranging from 60 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 60 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions decreased, with decreases ranging from 100 yuan/metal ton to 400 yuan/metal ton. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 24 - The total trading volume of zinc futures contracts (zn2601) of member futures companies was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short positions were 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2601 will experience a fluctuating decline in the short - term, with the market likely to weaken in the short run [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22,530, with a basis of +140, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On November 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 47,325 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 771 to 72,897 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with short positions decreasing, which is a bearish sign [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On November 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 186,892 lots, with a total trading value of 2.10191965 billion yuan. The open interest was 195,244 lots, a decrease of 4,511 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On November 21, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, with domestic TC at 2,600 yuan/metal ton and imported comprehensive TC at 90 US dollars/dry ton. The prices of 0 zinc in different regions varied, with prices in Shanghai ranging from 22,480 - 22,580 yuan/ton, in Guangdong from 22,280 - 22,380 yuan/ton, in Tianjin from 22,405 - 22,505 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang from 22,455 - 22,555 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 to November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 162,000 tons to 159,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to November 17 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 21, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 40 yuan/ton [12]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On November 21, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. 3.11 Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production exceeded the planned value by 2.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 3.12 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc futures contract zn2601 on November 21, the total trading volume of members was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short position was 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [21]. 3.13 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures closed with a negative line, with increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, and the increase in short positions was more significant. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - side strength decreasing and the short - side strength increasing, and the long - and short - side forces were in a stalemate [22].