沪锌期货

Search documents
沪锌期货早报-20251013
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 01:29
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面:外媒9月17日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年7月,全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货22350,基差+80;中性。 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 3、库存:10月10日LME锌库存较上日减少300吨至37950吨,10月10日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日增加1777吨至60644吨;中性。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势,收20日均线之上 ...
上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线下跌,沪铜跌4.46%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-10 23:14
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,10月11日,上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线下跌。沪铜跌4.46%,沪锡跌2.63%,氧化 铝跌2.47%,沪镍跌1.98%,沪铝跌1.59%,不锈钢跌1.48%,沪锌跌1.23%,沪铅跌0.09%。 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251010
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 11:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].
沪锌市场周报:产量高位海外偏紧预计锌价企稳调整-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - **Net Position and Total Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - **Supply - side - Global**: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - **Supply - side - Domestic**: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].
沪锌期货早报-20251010
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:18
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒9月17日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年7月,全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货22180,基差+135;偏空。 3、库存:10月9日LME锌库存较上日增加0吨至38250吨,10月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1646吨至58867吨;偏空。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌上涨走势,收20日均线之上,20日均 ...
上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一,沪铜涨0.86%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-09 22:15
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,10月10日,上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线上涨。沪铜涨0.86%,沪锡涨0.82%,沪锌 涨0.61%,沪铝涨0.45%,沪铅涨0.44%,沪镍涨0.41%,不锈钢涨0.35%,氧化铝涨0.31%。 ...
华宝期货国债期货早报-20251009
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 07:44
板块资金流向 (%) 30 - 25 _ 20 – 15 l 10 – 5 - 0 - -5 - the 17 the the All y 1 the WND WND 板块成交额变化 (%) 30 - 20 – 10 – 0 -10 – -20 – -30 - -40 - 11 1 ten 1 3 4 1/2 4 3 2 1 0 沪 猛 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 不 玻 P 原 燃 动 L 铅 硅 贮 铁 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 璃 V 油 油 力 P 铝 碳 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 金 银 铝 镍 锌 锡 铜 開用 100 50 0 -50 -100 分 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 版本 如果 xa | 娱乐场 您现 E P G 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 0 相 解软 1/2 カカ堂 足 粗 铝 铝 锌 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 ...
弘业期货:十一假期综述宏观有色板块
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 05:35
十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期,市场表现引人瞩目,主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨,其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头,涨幅达到 6.7%,刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内,多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购,期限为三个 月,旨在维持市场流动性。此外,市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下,A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期,供应压力缓解有限,沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落,海外锌库存持续回 落,伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强,沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱, 但矿端供应仍偏宽松,国内锌供应压力仍较大,国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落,呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落,仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复,原生铅检修后逐步复产,整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般, 国内库存下降至低位,不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强,铅震荡偏弱。 ...
沪锌期货早报-20251009
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:12
指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒9月17日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年7月,全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨;偏多。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 2、基差:现货21880,基差+80;中性。 9月30日国内主要现货市场行情 3、库存:10月8日LME锌库存较上日增加50吨至38250吨,9月30日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2043吨至57221吨;中性。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡下 ...
沪锌期货早报-20250930
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:19
指标体系 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒9月17日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年7月,全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货21670,基差-130;偏空。 3、库存:9月29日LME锌库存较上日减少825吨至41950吨,9月29日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加1691吨至59264吨;中性。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势,收20日均线之下,2 ...