Core Viewpoint - India and Japan continue to import Russian energy despite pressure from the U.S., highlighting a shift in global dynamics where national interests take precedence over alliances [1][22]. Group 1: India's Energy Imports - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, benefiting from discounts of $8-10 per barrel compared to international prices [5]. - In the first nine months of 2025, India is expected to import 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for 35%-40% of its total imports, saving $8.5 billion in the first half of the year alone [5][7]. - A halt in Russian oil imports could increase India's annual energy costs by $17 billion, exacerbating trade deficits and potentially triggering inflation, which poses a risk to its economic growth [7][20]. Group 2: Japan's Energy Dependence - Japan's reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is profound, with nearly 9% of its total imports coming from Russia and 29% of its electricity generation relying on Russian LNG [7][9]. - Japanese companies hold stakes in the Sakhalin-2 project, which will continue supplying gas until at least 2028, complicating any potential shift away from Russian energy [9]. - The Japanese government, under Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, is cautious about increasing domestic energy prices, which could destabilize its political standing [9][20]. Group 3: Diplomatic Strategies - Both India and Japan employ a strategy of "soft compliance and hard lines," skillfully navigating U.S. pressures while maintaining their energy imports [11][16]. - India's approach includes avoiding direct discussions with U.S. officials regarding Russian oil, while Japan's strategy involves appeasing the U.S. through defense spending and cooperation in various sectors [12][16]. - The U.S. sanctions are losing effectiveness as countries prioritize their national interests over compliance with U.S. demands, reflecting a broader trend in international relations [18][22].