Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

#白宫回应美方扣押挂俄国旗油轮#【#白宫回应美俄紧张关系是否会加剧#】美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特1 月7日在记者会上宣布，美国政府将继续对所有美方指称的"非法运输石油船只"实施禁运。7日，针对美 国在北大西洋扣押的一艘油轮是否可能加剧与俄罗斯的紧张关系，白宫方面表示，该船只"因违反美国 制裁而依法被扣押"，行动依据美国联邦法院签发的扣押令执行。莱维特补充称，被扣油轮上的相关船 员可能因违反联邦法律面临起诉，并可能被带到美国接受审判。对于美军当天在加勒比海域扣押的另一 艘无国籍油轮，莱维特称美国海岸警卫队正护送油轮前往美国进行最终处置。（青蜂侠） ...

据央视新闻报道，美国欧洲司令部7日宣布，美方已在北大西洋扣押"马里涅拉"号油轮，称该 油轮违反美国制裁措施。 "马里涅拉"号油轮原名为"贝拉1"号，于2025年12月21日前往委内瑞拉装载石油途中，在该国 附近水域遭美方拦截。在阻止美方人员登船的企图后，"马里涅拉"号油轮驶入大西洋，美国军 方船只则一路追赶。 在此期间， 这艘油轮将注册国变更为俄罗斯，获得了悬挂俄罗斯联邦国旗航行的临时许可， 并改名为"马里涅拉"号。 有媒体报道说，俄罗斯已派出一艘潜艇及其他海军力量为这艘油轮 护航，但美军赶在俄军舰和潜艇抵达之前，在冰岛和英国之间的水域扣押了油轮。 据悉，这艘油轮原计划在委内瑞拉装载石油，但由于美国封锁未能靠岸，目前处于空载状态。 7日，英国国防部称，英国应美方请求，就美国扣押"贝拉1"号提供了支持。国防部声明说，英 国皇家海军和空军根据预先制定的作战计划，向在"英国—冰岛—格陵兰通道"拦截油轮的美军 提供了包括基地保障在内的行动支援。 俄交通部确认美军登船 称与"马里涅拉"号失去联系 俄罗斯交通部7日发布公告称，2025年12月24日，"马里涅拉"号油轮依据俄罗斯联邦法律及国 际法准则，获得了悬挂俄罗斯国旗 ...

封图 | 这是2025年3月18日在新加坡海峡拍摄到的"水手"号油轮（又名"贝拉1"号）。新华社/法新 美国欧洲司令部7日宣布，美方已在北大西洋扣押" 马里涅拉 "号油轮，称该油轮违反美国制裁措 施。 "马里涅拉"号油轮原名为"贝拉1"号， 于2025年12月21日前往委内瑞拉装载石油途中，在该国附 近水域遭美方拦截。 在阻止美方人员登船的企图后，"马里涅拉"号油轮驶入大西洋，美国军方船只 则一路追赶。 2026.01. 08 本文字数：1104，阅读时长大约2分钟 来源 | 央视新闻 在此期间，这艘油轮将注册国变更为俄罗斯，获得了悬挂俄罗斯联邦国旗航行的临时许可，并改名 为"马里涅拉"号。有媒体报道说，俄罗斯已派出一艘潜艇及其他海军力量为这艘油轮护航，但美军 赶在俄军舰和潜艇抵达之前，在冰岛和英国之间的水域扣押了油轮。 据悉，这艘油轮原计划在委内瑞拉装载石油，但由于美国封锁未能靠岸，目前处于空载状态。 7日，英国国防部称，英国应美方请求，就美国扣押"贝拉1"号提供了支持。国防部声明说，英国皇 家海军和空军根据预先制定的作战计划，向在"英国—冰岛—格陵兰通道"拦截油轮的美军提供了包 括基地保障在内的行动支援。 ...

出租车司机侯赛因强调，在他看来，许多民众和巴扎商人的诉求不完全一致，自己并没有响应巴扎商人 的集会呼吁。他说："巴扎（进口）商人要赚里亚尔，花美元，我则是赚里亚尔，花里亚尔，区别还是 比较大的。伊朗的经济情况周而复始，但生活总要继续。" 据观察，截至目前，首都德黑兰作为伊朗社会稳定的重要风向标，整体情况相对缓和，即便在数日前骚 乱最为激烈的时期，抗议者总体规模也很难和2022年时席卷伊朗的动荡相提并论。 【环球时报驻伊朗特约记者 李炫璇】岁末年初，因里亚尔严重贬值，物价快速上涨，伊朗多地出现示 威集会。据伊通社7日报道，伊朗政府目前已计划出台包括基础商品补贴在内的多项政策以稳定民生， 并推进单一汇率制度的讨论及实施。伊朗警察部队司令礼萨·拉丹表示，将为和平提出诉求的抗议者提 供安全保障，煽动流血暴乱事件或同境外间谍机构有勾连的不法分子将受到严厉打击。《环球时报》特 约记者近日在德黑兰也观察到了一些变化。 6日上午，记者在德黑兰大巴扎购物时发现，多数商铺已恢复营业，来往人群流动性较强，商户闭市及 人员聚集现象相对上周已明显减少。随着实际汇率跌至148万里亚尔兑1美元左右，不少钱庄大门紧闭， 广场上也少了很多叫喊 ...

本文转自【新华网】； 新华社北京1月7日电 美国东部时间7日8时43分，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在北大西洋扣押一艘油轮，据称这艘船悬挂了俄罗 斯国旗。约半小时后，美国南方司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在国际水域扣押一艘无国籍油轮。两船均与委内瑞拉有关。 美国欧洲司令部当天在社交媒体上说："美国司法部和国土安全部在与战争部的协调下，当天宣布扣押了'贝拉1'号油轮，理由是其违反美国制 裁。该船被美国海岸警卫队'芒罗'号追踪后，在北大西洋海域被扣押，依据是联邦法院签发的逮捕令。" 美方匿名官员告诉路透社，试图扣押这艘油轮的行动由美国海岸警卫队和美军执行。行动发生时，俄罗斯舰艇包括一艘俄罗斯潜艇就在附近海 域。 据美联社报道，7日早些时候，该船位置在苏格兰与冰岛之间，正向北航行。 有报道称，"贝拉1"号油轮在2025年12月曾被美国海岸警卫队追赶，其间这艘油轮在船身涂上俄罗斯国旗图案，改名为"水手"号。该油轮原计划在 委内瑞拉装载石油，但由于美国封锁未能靠岸，目前处于空载状态。 此外，美国南方司令部7日在社交媒体发布消息称，美国当天凌晨拦截"一艘无国籍、受制裁的'影子舰队'油轮"，行动过程中未发生任何意 ...

据新华社消息，美国欧洲司令部7日宣布，美方已在北大西洋扣押"贝拉1"号油轮，称该油轮违反美国制 裁措施。 此前报道 美国官员：美方正在扣押悬挂俄国旗的油轮 俄罗斯媒体7日援引消息人士的话报道称，一架直升机正试图将据信是美军人员降落在"水手"号上。俄 媒同时发布两张据称是美国直升机在"水手"号附近盘旋的照片。 此前有报道称，2025年12月，这艘原名"贝拉1"号的油轮成功阻止了美方人员登船企图并驶入大西洋。 在被美国海岸警卫队追赶期间，这艘油轮在船身涂上俄罗斯国旗图案，改名为"水手"号，并将注册国变 更为俄罗斯。报道说，这艘油轮原计划在委内瑞拉装载石油，但由于美国封锁未能靠岸，目前处于空载 状态。 俄外交部此前表示，该油轮目前悬挂俄罗斯国旗，在北大西洋国际水域航行，完全遵守国际海事法，但 美国和北约对该油轮表现出异乎寻常的关注。尽管该油轮距离美国海岸约4000公里，但美国海岸警卫队 的一艘舰艇已追踪油轮数日。 美国官员7日向媒体披露，美国正在扣押悬挂俄罗斯国旗、与委内瑞拉有关的油轮"水手"号。据称，美 方已在大西洋上对"水手"号进行超过两周的追踪。 美方匿名官员告诉路透社，试图扣押这艘油轮的行动由美国海岸警卫队 ...

雪佛龙(CVX.N)预订的一小批船只正准备驶向委内瑞拉。在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美国军队俘虏之后， 该公司成为了该国石油的唯一出口商。数据显示，这家美国石油巨头租用的至少11艘油轮计划于本月抵 达委内瑞拉政府控制的何塞港和巴霍格兰德港。该数据为初步统计，与去年12月的9艘船只数量相比有 所增加，也是自10月以来的最高值，当时有12艘油轮在此装载货物。这家总部位于休斯敦的公司在委内 瑞拉的运营活动得到了美国财政部颁发的许可。在美国制裁背景下，该公司是唯一一家被允许开采和出 口（委内瑞拉）原油的西方企业。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

来源：参考消息 据路透社1月5日报道，"油轮追踪者"网站说，最近几天，大约十几艘满载委内瑞拉原油和燃料的油轮悄 悄离开该国水域，似乎打破了美国实行的严格封锁。 所有被确认已离开的船只都受到美国的制裁。另一组同样受到制裁的船只近几天在卸下进口产品或者完 成国内运输任务后，也以空船状态离开该国。 报道称，这些船只的离开对该国国营石油公司——委内瑞拉石油公司来说可能是一个解脱。该公司在上 个月开始的美国封锁期间积累了大量海上浮动储备油，该国的石油出口一度陷入停滞。 来源：参考消息 据路透社1月5日报道，"油轮追踪者"网站说，最近几天，大约十几艘满载委内瑞拉原油和燃料的油轮悄 悄离开该国水域，似乎打破了美国实行的严格封锁。 所有被确认已离开的船只都受到美国的制裁。另一组同样受到制裁的船只近几天在卸下进口产品或者完 成国内运输任务后，也以空船状态离开该国。 报道称，这些船只的离开对该国国营石油公司——委内瑞拉石油公司来说可能是一个解脱。该公司在上 个月开始的美国封锁期间积累了大量海上浮动储备油，该国的石油出口一度陷入停滞。 石油出口是委内瑞拉的主要收入来源。 "油轮追踪者"网站说，至少有4艘油轮离开委内瑞拉水域，之前它 ...

近期，美国对委内瑞拉施压不断升级。自2025年12月10日以来，美国已至少三次在委内瑞拉附近海域对 涉委油轮实施拦截行动，并声称没收船上所载原油。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间2025年12月31日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发布声明，宣布对四家在委内瑞 拉石油领域运营的公司实施制裁，并将四艘相关油轮列为被冻结资产。 ...