全球能源市场正在经历一场剧烈的结构性调整，俄罗斯作为曾经的能源巨头，正面临前所未有的挑战。 新罗西斯克港的拥堵现状，直观地反映了俄罗斯能源出口的困境。港口工作人员透露，近期抵达的油轮中，近三分之一装载的原油无法及时运出，只能暂时 作为浮式储存。这些油轮原本计划将原油交付给印度、欧洲等地的买家，但由于美国的制裁，买家纷纷退缩，船东也因担心被列入制裁名单而拒绝接单。目 前，俄罗斯的海上库存已经积压超过3000万桶，相当于全球每日原油消费量的3%。 国际能源署的数据描绘了一幅严峻的画面：2025年全球原油市场将出现每日50万桶的过剩，而2026年这一数字可能飙升至400万桶。这种结构性过剩的压 力，正不断挤压俄罗斯在国际能源市场上的定价权。一个显著的例证是，俄罗斯原油的折价幅度已扩大至每桶23.5美元，触及2023年3月以来的最高点。与 此同时，美国的原油出口量强势反弹，重新回到2024年夏季的水平，圭亚那、巴西等新兴产油国也纷纷加大对亚洲市场的出口力度，同比增幅高达40%。 俄罗斯的财政收入高度依赖能源出口，占比高达55%。然而，油价的持续下跌已经对其财政造成了沉重打击，今年前10个月的预算收入同比下降了20%。 ...

11月17日，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫在莫斯科会见了到访的印度外长苏杰生。苏杰生此次访问莫斯科主要有两个目的，一是为了出席上海合作组织（SCO） 成员国政府首脑理事会会议，二是为普京即将于12月初访问新德里并举行印俄峰会"打前站"，进行一次高层沟通。 俄罗斯总统普京对印度的访问意义尤为重大——这将是自乌克兰冲突爆发以来他首次访印。尤其考虑到美国总统特朗普正试图以"关税大棒"迫使印度放弃购 买俄罗斯石油，此次峰会面临巨大的外部压力。然而，俄罗斯和印度均明确表示，美国的干预不会削弱两国的战略伙伴关系。 在上合组织会议期间与拉夫罗夫会谈之前，苏杰生于11月7日在新德里会见了俄罗斯副外长安德烈·鲁坚科。俄外交部随后表示，双方"就紧迫议题、未来多 领域双边合作方向以及即将举行的高层会晤安排交换了意见"。 双方11月密集的外交活动与印俄峰会的最后筹备工作密切相关。早些时候，普京已宣布计划于12月初访问印度，并指示政府探索加强与印度贸易和经济关系 的途径，包括物流、支付系统及贸易失衡等问题。 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫11月10日表示："我们正在积极筹备普京总统今年底对印度的访问，预计这将是一次富有成果的访问。" 尽管克里姆林 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian Oil Company (NIS) are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party due to U.S. sanctions, with the Serbian government supporting this request [3]. Group 1 - On November 11, Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy, Andjelkovic, announced the willingness of Russian shareholders to hand over control of NIS to a third party [3]. - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions while negotiating with a third party [3]. - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies, with the U.S. having postponed the effective date of sanctions eight times since then [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian Oil Company (NIS), which is under U.S. sanctions, are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the support of the Serbian government [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions during negotiations with a third party [1] - The Serbian government supports the request made by the Russian shareholders [1] Group 2: Sanctions Background - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies [1] - The U.S. has postponed the effective date of sanctions on NIS eight times to date [1] - The ownership structure of NIS has changed multiple times during the period of sanctions postponement [1]

Group 1 - Ukraine's national electricity company has implemented emergency power outages in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions due to damage from Russian shelling, suspending previously announced hourly power outage schedules until the emergency measures are lifted [1] - The Ukrainian armed forces conducted precision strikes on key Russian military facilities, including the Saratov oil refinery and Feodosia maritime oil terminal, aiming to weaken Russia's military economic potential [2] - The Serbian oil company (NIS) is facing U.S. sanctions, and Russian shareholders are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the Serbian government supporting this request to delay the sanctions' effective date [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian oil company (NIS), which is under U.S. sanctions, are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the support of the Serbian government [1] Group 1: Sanctions and Control Transfer - The Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy, Hadanovic, announced the willingness of Russian shareholders to transfer control of NIS to a third party [1] - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions during negotiations with a third party [1] - The Serbian government supports the request for postponement of sanctions [1] Group 2: Background on Sanctions - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies [1] - The U.S. has postponed the effective date of sanctions on NIS eight times to date [1] - The ownership structure of NIS has changed multiple times during the postponement period [1]

Core Viewpoint - India and Japan continue to import Russian energy despite pressure from the U.S., highlighting a shift in global dynamics where national interests take precedence over alliances [1][22]. Group 1: India's Energy Imports - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, benefiting from discounts of $8-10 per barrel compared to international prices [5]. - In the first nine months of 2025, India is expected to import 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for 35%-40% of its total imports, saving $8.5 billion in the first half of the year alone [5][7]. - A halt in Russian oil imports could increase India's annual energy costs by $17 billion, exacerbating trade deficits and potentially triggering inflation, which poses a risk to its economic growth [7][20]. Group 2: Japan's Energy Dependence - Japan's reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is profound, with nearly 9% of its total imports coming from Russia and 29% of its electricity generation relying on Russian LNG [7][9]. - Japanese companies hold stakes in the Sakhalin-2 project, which will continue supplying gas until at least 2028, complicating any potential shift away from Russian energy [9]. - The Japanese government, under Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, is cautious about increasing domestic energy prices, which could destabilize its political standing [9][20]. Group 3: Diplomatic Strategies - Both India and Japan employ a strategy of "soft compliance and hard lines," skillfully navigating U.S. pressures while maintaining their energy imports [11][16]. - India's approach includes avoiding direct discussions with U.S. officials regarding Russian oil, while Japan's strategy involves appeasing the U.S. through defense spending and cooperation in various sectors [12][16]. - The U.S. sanctions are losing effectiveness as countries prioritize their national interests over compliance with U.S. demands, reflecting a broader trend in international relations [18][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Core Points - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian crude oil following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [1][2] - Reliance was a major buyer of Russian crude, importing approximately 630,000 barrels per day in September, which constituted about one-third of India's total crude imports [1] - Other Indian refiners, including state-owned companies, are also reviewing their Russian oil trade to comply with U.S. sanctions, indicating a potential significant reduction in imports [2] Group 1 - Reliance Industries will adjust refinery operations to meet compliance requirements while maintaining supplier relationships [1] - The share of Russian crude in India's total imports has increased from less than 3% to approximately one-third [1] - The combined supply from Russian oil companies accounted for about 60% of India's Russian oil purchases [2] Group 2 - The shift away from Russian oil may lead to increased crude import costs for India, despite the possibility of sourcing from the Middle East and other regions [2] - Analysts suggest that while technical adjustments in refineries are feasible, the primary concern is the pressure on refining profit margins [2] - The cessation of Russian oil purchases may enhance the likelihood of India reaching a trade agreement with the U.S., which has been a critical point in trade negotiations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sanctions imposed by the United States on Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting the escalating tensions between these countries and the U.S. regarding drug trafficking and military presence in the Caribbean region [3][4][6][9]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Responses - The U.S. announced sanctions against President Petro and his family, citing anti-drug laws, which will freeze their assets and financial services in the U.S. [6] - President Petro condemned the sanctions as a "paradox," emphasizing Colombia's efforts in combating drug trafficking and expressing his determination to defend the rights of the Colombian people against U.S. actions [5][6]. - The Colombian Foreign Ministry strongly criticized the sanctions as "unfounded," noting the deterioration of U.S.-Colombia relations, which were once characterized by strong alliance [7]. Group 2: Venezuelan Stance - President Maduro accused the U.S. of "manufacturing a new war" and stated that Venezuela would strive to prevent such conflicts, advocating for peace and harmony in the region [9]. - Maduro highlighted that the U.S. is using military threats and fabricated stories to undermine Venezuela, despite reports indicating that Venezuela is not a major source of drugs entering the U.S. [9]. - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Caribbean under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, which Maduro claims is a tactic for regime change in Venezuela [9].