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上海机场:盈利逐步回升,需挖掘非航变现潜力-20250429
HTSC· 2025-04-29 07:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with a focus on exploring non-aeronautical revenue potential [1][4] - The company has shown strong cost control, leading to a significant increase in net profit [2][3] - Future growth is expected from steady increases in airport traffic, although the recovery of duty-free sales remains uncertain [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 3.172 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 519 million RMB, up 34.5% [1][2] - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.369 billion RMB, a 12.0% increase, and net profit of 1.934 billion RMB, which is a 107.0% increase, largely due to compensation from land acquisition [1][3] - The company’s operating costs remained stable, contributing to a gross profit increase of 19.9% in Q1 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 11.047 billion RMB in 2023 to 15.703 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.14% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 934 million RMB in 2023 to 3.386 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 RMB in 2023 to 1.36 RMB in 2027 [5] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 37.00 RMB, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis [4][6] - The valuation reflects a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [4][5]