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两个月合计“下修”高达26万!美国非农数据“反复打脸”还能信吗?
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-02 06:55
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant downward revisions in U.S. non-farm employment data, indicating potential issues with data accuracy and reliability, raising concerns about the underlying economic conditions [1][4][19] Group 1: Employment Data Revisions - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 125,000 jobs for May, changing from +144,000 to +19,000, and a reduction of 133,000 jobs for June, from +147,000 to +14,000 [2][7] Group 2: Data Collection Challenges - The accuracy of employment reports is being challenged by a declining response rate from businesses and households participating in government surveys, with recent response rates dropping below 60%, compared to pre-pandemic levels of over 70% [10][12] - The Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to collect and analyze economic data is being hampered by budget cuts and resource constraints, particularly highlighted during the Trump administration [15][16] Group 3: Underlying Issues - The decline in survey participation is attributed to long-standing social and institutional factors, including public fatigue with surveys and eroding trust in government institutions [13][14] - Economic policy changes under the Trump administration may have further exacerbated the quality of data, as businesses struggle to adapt to rapid policy shifts [17]