Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are minor compared to previous years, with the upcoming developments in the US-Iran situation being crucial for future trends in these precious metals [1][2]. Market Overview - The US non-farm payroll data released recently showed better-than-expected figures for both job creation and unemployment rate; however, the impact on gold and silver prices was minimal, indicating a lack of market sensitivity to these economic indicators [1][2]. - The current market focus is primarily on the US-Iran situation and the actions of President Trump, rather than on traditional economic data such as non-farm payrolls or upcoming CPI data [2]. Technical Analysis - Spot gold prices have recently experienced a pullback, indicating a period of consolidation while attempting to gain new bullish momentum, which may help in resuming an upward trend [2]. - Spot silver prices have also seen a slight decline in recent trading sessions, aiming to reorganize its movement and build the necessary momentum to attempt a breakthrough of the key resistance level at $84.00 [2].

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report reflects the real state of the economy and the policy direction, acting as a mirror rather than just a "market amplifier" [1] - The January non-farm data shows a strong monthly performance with 130,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, but the annual benchmark revision significantly lowers the 2025 employment growth forecast from 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a weaker labor market than previously reported [4] - The contradiction of strong monthly data against a backdrop of long-term weakness highlights the need for investors to understand the cautious hiring trends and the overall economic context [4] Group 2 - The strong monthly job growth has led to a delay in interest rate cuts, pushing the first expected cut from June to July, as the labor market shows no significant deterioration [6] - This shift in interest rate expectations has resulted in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a temporary strengthening of the dollar, while gold prices are under pressure due to the high real interest rates [6] - Despite the short-term pressure on gold, there remains significant anticipation for future policy shifts, as the underlying vulnerabilities exposed by the annual revision persist [6] Group 3 - In a volatile macroeconomic environment, investors need to establish a systematic cognitive framework for asset allocation and risk hedging, rather than relying solely on simplistic relationships between interest rates and asset prices [8] - Gold is positioned as a risk hedging tool within asset allocation, suitable for mitigating long-term currency credit risks and balancing portfolio volatility before policy shifts occur [8] - The non-farm report conveys dual signals of strength and revision, widening the divergence in interest rate paths, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying logic rather than merely predicting market direction [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and maintained a bullish outlook despite strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, and reached a daily high of $5119.05 before retreating [3] - The lowest point during the day was $4964.04, with a final closing price of $5084.54, reflecting a daily volatility of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - On February 12, gold prices initially weakened as the market digested the strong U.S. employment report, but remained above bullish support levels [3] - The dollar index showed no significant strength, indicating a potential for further weakening, which could support gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]

Group 1 - The global market experienced a silent decline, with the dollar, gold, silver, and U.S. stock markets all falling, and Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 [2] - The decline was characterized by a significant drop in volatility, particularly in the silver market, indicating a lack of market activity and a collective retreat without panic [2][3] - The current market situation is seen as a prelude to either an emotional acceleration in one direction or an external event that could release the pent-up volatility [4] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to be a potential trigger for market movement, with recent comments from White House trade advisor Navarro suggesting a need to lower expectations for monthly job numbers [5] - There is a contrasting narrative from Federal Reserve officials, with some indicating a prolonged period of stable interest rates, which may create confusion in market expectations [5] - Both the White House and the Federal Reserve seem to aim at preventing the market from reacting too quickly, thereby dispersing "certainty expectations" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a bullish trend, with significant support from various fundamental factors and technical indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold experienced a volatile week, initially dropping to 4402 due to hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, before rebounding to 5092 due to institutional buying and short covering [1]. - The strong V-shaped reversal on Friday, with a peak around 4972, sets a bullish foundation for gold in the upcoming week [2]. - The fundamental backdrop for gold remains robust, with weaker-than-expected ADP data reinforcing rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Gold has established strong support at 4650, with increased trading volume during the rebound and the RSI indicator recovering from oversold conditions [2]. - The previous short positions have been cleared, and there is a marginal return of ETF holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [2]. - The short-term target for gold is set at 4950-5000, with 4800 identified as a new support level [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves buying on dips, particularly around 4830-50, and maintaining positions even if prices unexpectedly drop to 4700 [4]. - Continuous monitoring of real-time market trends and updates is advised to optimize trading decisions [4].

Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures closed at 20,255 yuan per kilogram on February 5, with a daily decline of 10.85% and a trading volume of 1,653,202 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 26,300 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 6,045 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The sentiment in the domestic market remains strong, with the silver premium maintaining at 3,300 yuan per gram, indicating a potential for upward movement despite recent volatility [5] Group 2 - The U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, falling short of market expectations, and previous month's data was revised down [3] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to resume normal operations, with the non-farm payroll data scheduled for release on February 11 and CPI data on February 13 [3] - The large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. experienced significant declines, contributing to the volatility in silver prices, which have not stabilized above the $90 mark [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by economic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran negotiations [2][6]. Economic Data Summary - COMEX gold prices rose initially but closed at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices fell to 1113.78 yuan per gram, down 0.64% [2][6]. - The ISM reported that the January services PMI was 53.8, unchanged from December and at the highest level since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [2][6]. - The ADP reported an addition of 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, suggesting a weakening labor market which may raise expectations for interest rate cuts [2][6]. Geopolitical Developments Summary - The US announced the resumption of negotiations with Iran, which were previously on the verge of collapse, scheduled for February 6 [2][6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to geopolitical factors, particularly the US-Iran talks, which may influence the potential for gold prices to strengthen again [2][6]. - The article notes that the volatility in geopolitical situations complicates market predictions, indicating that trends remain unclear and require further observation [2][6].

Group 1 - The current spot silver price is trading above $80.71, with a reported increase of 3.79% to $82.15 per ounce, reaching a high of $85.65 and a low of $79.19 during the trading session [1] - Silver prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $80 to $85, with a potential challenge to $90 if the recent high is surpassed [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the January employment report as planned due to parts of the government being shut down, affecting data collection and publication [2] - The delay in employment data release is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for March 17-18 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking pressures and easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which has reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Market Analysis - As of February 2, gold is trading around $4,555 per ounce, experiencing a daily drop of approximately 6%, with a previous low of $4,497.39 per ounce, marking a three-week low [1][3]. - Last week, gold prices fell nearly 10%, following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence and indicated signs of political stability in the U.S. [1][3]. Technical Outlook - The current market is in a weak state, with key resistance levels at $4,950 and $5,100. A break above $5,100 could signal a return to a bullish trend, with potential upward movement towards $5,600 [2][4]. - Support is identified at around $4,400; if this level holds, significant declines may be avoided. However, a break below $4,400 could lead to further downside, with targets at $4,200 [2][4].