任何令投资者怀疑数据被政治化的迹象，都将加剧对7月CPI数据采集过程的担忧。 这一次，统计被 7月非农刚公布没多久，美国劳工统计局的局长就被"炒鱿鱼"了。理由是：特朗普怀疑非农数据造假，6 月就业人数大幅修正，而且这两年非农数据几乎月月修正。 去年，非农下修人数高达80多万，说白了就是每个月多报了6万多人，6月非农从14.7万修正到1.4万，5 月非农从14.4万修正到1.9万，两个月下修25.8万人，离谱的妈妈给离谱开门离谱到家了。 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Market Overview - US stock market rebounded with the Dow Jones up 585.06 points (1.34%) to 44,173.64, Nasdaq up 403.45 points (1.95%) to 21,053.58, and S&P 500 up 91.93 points (1.47%) to 6,329.94 [1] - The rebound followed a significant drop in the previous trading session, where the Dow fell over 500 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their worst single-day performances since May and April respectively [1] Economic Data Impact - The market is reacting to disappointing non-farm payroll data, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 104,000, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The downward revision of employment data for May and June by nearly 260,000 jobs has raised concerns about the labor market's strength [3] - Investors are assessing the implications of weak labor market data on future market performance, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates [2][3] Federal Reserve and Political Influence - President Trump announced plans to appoint new members to the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may influence economic policy [4][5] - The recent firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head due to dissatisfaction with employment data has raised concerns about the politicization of economic data [3][5] Company-Specific News - Tesla approved a stock award of 96 million shares to CEO Elon Musk, valued at approximately $29 billion, contingent on Musk paying an exercise price of $23.34 per share [6] - Spotify plans to increase subscription fees in certain regions from €10.99 to €11.99 starting in September [6] - Amphenol is set to acquire CommScope's broadband business, which is expected to enhance Amphenol's earnings per share [6] - Citigroup raised its price target for Advanced Micro Devices from $37 to $52 [6] - UBS reached a $300 million settlement with the US Department of Justice regarding a mortgage bond case [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, the U.S. July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, effective August 7. The dollar index rose weekly. Globally, stocks fell, and the bond and commodity markets were generally weak, with bonds > commodities > stocks in dollar - terms. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market rose, with commodities > stocks > bonds [3][6]. - The July non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about the uncertainty of subsequent policies. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of major foreign policies on the market and keep an eye on the changes in the prices of major asset classes [3][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market Overview**: From July 28 to August 1, due to concerns triggered by non - farm payrolls data, major global stock markets generally declined. European stocks led the decline, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For example, MSCI Europe fell 4.12%, while emerging market stock indices fell 2.51% [8][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: During the same period, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. After the non - farm payrolls data was released, the expectation of a rate cut increased. The yields of medium - and long - term U.S. Treasuries declined, with the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield falling 17BP to 4.23%. Globally, credit bonds > government bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate exceeded expectations, causing the dollar index to rise 1.04% weekly. Most major non - dollar currencies depreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate declined slightly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Due to the risk of U.S. energy sanctions on Russia and Iran and the expectation of peak - season demand, international oil prices rose weekly, while most agricultural products and non - ferrous metals prices fell [17]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: From July 28 to August 1, after policy expectations were realized, major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The communication and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while non - ferrous metals and coal underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: During this period, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan, and the liquidity was generally stable. The bond market rose weekly, with government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oilseeds and oils rose, while the black - metal sector underperformed. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 2.46% [24][25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - The July non - farm payrolls data has led to market concerns about the uncertainty of subsequent policies. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in major asset prices [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the precious metals market, with gold's non - farm data weakening and silver falling from a high. The trend strength for both gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Prices**: -沪金2510 closed at 770.72 with a daily increase of 0.06% and a night - session close of 781.12 with a 1.33% increase; Comex黄金2510 closed at 3416.00 with a 2.21% increase; London gold spot closed at 3362.09 with a 2.25% increase [2]. -沪银2510 closed at 8918 with a - 0.98% decrease and a night - session close of 8994.00 with a 0.80% increase; Comex白银2510 closed at 37.105 with a 0.86% increase; London silver spot closed at 37.025 with a 0.97% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: -沪金2510 contract's trading volume was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516 from the previous day, and its position was 218,768, an increase of 1,688 [2]. -沪银2510's trading volume was 587,441, a decrease of 513,199 from the previous day, and its position was 365,193, a decrease of 5,917 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR黄金ETF持仓 was 953.08, a decrease of 1; SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) was 15,056.67, a decrease of 6 [2]. - **Inventory**: -沪金 inventory was 35,745 kg, an increase of 102 kg; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,675,474 troy ounces, an increase of 161,012 troy ounces [2]. -沪银 inventory was 1,183,957 kg, a decrease of 24,076 kg; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 505,219,644 troy ounces, an increase of 881,335 troy ounces [2]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between沪金2510 contract and 2512 contract was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516; the spread between沪银2510 contract and 2512 contract was - 8,261, an increase of 176 [2]. - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪金 December and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪银 December and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.22, an increase of 0.23%; the euro to US dollar was 1.16 with no change; the US dollar to Japanese yen was 147.42, an increase of 0.05; the British pound to US dollar was 1.21 with no change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 [3]. - Trump blamed the weak non - farm data on officials appointed by Biden and called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Statistics director [5]. - There is an "open" internal struggle within the Fed. Two senior officials said "employment remains robust", while two opponents issued a statement saying "waiting is a mistake" [5]. - Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation on August 8 [7]. - Trump threatened sanctions and demanded that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8. Putin said that if someone was disappointed with the results of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks so far, it was because of "over - expectations" [7]. - OPEC+ agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [6].

Group 1: Market Data - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% [4] - London gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%; London silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [4] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 0.15%; SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,056.66 tons, down 0.04% [4] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.23%, down 0.14 percentage points; TIPS was 1.90%, down 0.08 percentage points [4] - The US dollar index was 98.69, down 1.36%; the offshore RMB was 7.2545, down 0.49% [4] - The Dow Jones Index was 43,588.58, down 1.23%; the S&P 500 was 6,238.01, down 1.60%; the Nasdaq Index was 20,650.13, down 2.24%; the VIX Index was 20.38, up 21.89% [4] - The London FTSE 100 was 9,068.58, down 0.70%; the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index was 40,799.60, down 0.66% [4] Group 2: Market Performance of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold closed at 3,416.00 dollars/ounce, up 2.21%; trading volume was 22.23 million lots, up 43.81%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%; inventory was 1,204 tons, up 0.10% [7] - LBMA gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46% [7] - SHFE gold closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, up 0.06%; trading volume was 22.64 million lots, down 30.20%; open interest was 43.16 million lots, up 0.44%; inventory was 35.75 tons, up 0.29%; precipitation funds were 53.229 billion yuan, up 0.50% [7] - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; trading volume was 24.78 tons, down 23.64%; open interest was 206.33 tons, down 1.85% [7] - COMEX silver closed at 37.11 dollars/ounce, up 0.86%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93%; inventory was 15,759 tons, up 0.29% [7] - LBMA silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [7] - SHFE silver closed at 8,918.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.00%; trading volume was 77.75 million lots, down 44.22%; open interest was 78.57 million lots, down 1.47%; inventory was 1,183.96 tons, down 1.99%; precipitation funds were 18.918 billion yuan, down 2.46% [7] - Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80%; trading volume was 421.57 tons, down 37.62%; open interest was 3,483.588 tons, up 1.26% [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data reversed the previous market judgment on the resilience of the US economy; after the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly [2][3] - The CME interest rate observer shows that the current market expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [3] - With Trump's strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the much lower-than-expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] - The precious metals strategy suggests buying on dips; the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8,885 - 9,287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Price Comparison and Spread Analysis - Gold internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was -15.23 yuan/gram (-65.69 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was -13.61 yuan/gram (-58.87 dollars/ounce) [54] - Silver internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was 317.21 yuan/kilogram (1.37 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was 327.56 yuan/kilogram (1.42 dollars/ounce) [54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. stock markets attributed to disappointing non-farm payroll data and political events affecting labor statistics and the Federal Reserve's independence [3][5][10]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [5][12]. - Revisions to previous months' data showed a downward adjustment, with May's figures revised from 144,000 to just 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs [5][12]. - Experts indicate that the labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with hiring momentum weakening [5][6]. Group 2: Political Interference - President Trump ordered the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau Director shortly after the non-farm report was released, claiming the data was manipulated for political purposes [8][9]. - The dismissal raised concerns about the integrity of labor data collection and the potential for political influence on economic statistics [8][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Changes - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, effective August 8, raises concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political pressure on monetary policy [10][11]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to 75.5% following the weak non-farm data and the personnel changes within the Fed [12][13]. - Market analysts suggest that the current environment may lead to increased pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, impacting overall economic conditions [10][12].

Group 1 - The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a key economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment growth outside the agricultural sector [3][4] - NFP data significantly influences traditional financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, and is increasingly impacting the cryptocurrency market [4][22] - The relationship between NFP data and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is becoming more pronounced, as these assets are now viewed similarly to risk assets and gold [4][22] Group 2 - Strong NFP data typically leads to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which can pressure risk assets like BTC, while weak data may enhance expectations for rate cuts, benefiting these assets [7][8] - The correlation between NFP data and cryptocurrency prices is evident, with altcoins often experiencing more volatility than BTC due to lower liquidity [8][5] - The increasing participation of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market is tying BTC and ETH prices more closely to macroeconomic indicators [4][22] Group 3 - In August, BTC experienced a pullback, testing a critical support level of $112,000, with expectations of a subsequent upward trend aligned with potential rate cuts in September [17][19] - ETH also faced a decline but is expected to test higher resistance levels, with significant trading volume indicating strong market interest from institutional investors [19][22] - The upcoming NFP data release is anticipated to influence both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these financial ecosystems [21][22]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which is below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The July employment report indicated a reduction of 10,000 jobs in the government sector, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which is below the expected 100,000. The healthcare (+79,000), retail trade (+16,000), and finance (+15,000) sectors were the main contributors to job growth, whereas professional and business services (-14,000), manufacturing (-11,000), and government (-10,000) sectors were the main detractors [3][20]. - The employment diffusion index, which measures the breadth of employment growth, increased to 51.2% in July from 47.2% previously, but the three-month average remains low at 49%, significantly below the projected 53.8% for 2024 [3][20]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) rose slightly from 4.12% to 4.25% in July, with the rate for new entrants to the job market increasing from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11%. Notably, the number of individuals transitioning from employment to unemployment increased significantly, reflecting a weakening trend in household surveys [21][22]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in its July meeting, with two members voting against the decision. The weak non-farm payroll data somewhat supported their stance. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [4][25][26]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields [27].