昨晚公布的美国非农数据，无论是新增就业人数还是失业率都好于预期;但，黄金白银波动有限。如我 们预期一样"几乎毫无影响力"。 不是非农就业数据不重要，而是当前市场已经不把非农数据当回事，包括接下来即将公布的CPI数据。 因为，市场的焦点在美伊局势，在美国不安分的总统特朗普。除非常规经济数据或消息爆冷，远远偏离 市场预期。 摘要周四(2月12日)欧洲时段，黄金白银连续两天小幅波动，和前几年比起来属于超级行情，但在近期 确实属于小幅波动行情。继续关注美伊局势，是以谈判达成协议收场还是直接开打，将决定黄金白银尤 其是黄金接下来一个时期的走势。 周四(2月12日)欧洲时段，黄金白银连续两天小幅波动，和前几年比起来属于超级行情，但在近期确实 属于小幅波动行情。继续关注美伊局势，是以谈判达成协议收场还是直接开打，将决定黄金白银尤其是 黄金接下来一个时期的走势。 【要闻速递】 【技术分析】 现货黄金：现货黄金价格在近期盘中交易中出现回落，暂时休整，并试图获得新的看涨动能，这或将有 助于其重新走高。 现货白银：现货白银价格在近期的日内交易中小幅回落，旨在重新整理其走势，并积蓄所需动能，以尝 试突破关键阻力位84.00美元。 黄 ...

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report reflects the real state of the economy and the policy direction, acting as a mirror rather than just a "market amplifier" [1] - The January non-farm data shows a strong monthly performance with 130,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, but the annual benchmark revision significantly lowers the 2025 employment growth forecast from 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a weaker labor market than previously reported [4] - The contradiction of strong monthly data against a backdrop of long-term weakness highlights the need for investors to understand the cautious hiring trends and the overall economic context [4] Group 2 - The strong monthly job growth has led to a delay in interest rate cuts, pushing the first expected cut from June to July, as the labor market shows no significant deterioration [6] - This shift in interest rate expectations has resulted in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a temporary strengthening of the dollar, while gold prices are under pressure due to the high real interest rates [6] - Despite the short-term pressure on gold, there remains significant anticipation for future policy shifts, as the underlying vulnerabilities exposed by the annual revision persist [6] Group 3 - In a volatile macroeconomic environment, investors need to establish a systematic cognitive framework for asset allocation and risk hedging, rather than relying solely on simplistic relationships between interest rates and asset prices [8] - Gold is positioned as a risk hedging tool within asset allocation, suitable for mitigating long-term currency credit risks and balancing portfolio volatility before policy shifts occur [8] - The non-farm report conveys dual signals of strength and revision, widening the divergence in interest rate paths, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying logic rather than merely predicting market direction [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and maintained a bullish outlook despite strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, and reached a daily high of $5119.05 before retreating [3] - The lowest point during the day was $4964.04, with a final closing price of $5084.54, reflecting a daily volatility of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - On February 12, gold prices initially weakened as the market digested the strong U.S. employment report, but remained above bullish support levels [3] - The dollar index showed no significant strength, indicating a potential for further weakening, which could support gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]

来源：华尔街情报圈 ——这不是平静，这是舞台被清空。 昨晚，全球市场出现一场无声的下跌： - 美元跌，黄金和白银跌，美国股市全线下跌，比特币又跌破70000美元。美元的下跌是22:00开始的，而黄金的下跌是23:00开始的。 之所以说是"无声的下跌"，因为波动率骤然降低，尤其是白银市场，其波幅是1月29日大跌以来最低的一天。不是恐慌性的暴跌，而是"集体闭嘴、默默撤 退"。 白银很诚实的资产。既不是纯避险资产，也不是纯工业资产，而是风险情绪放大器。白银不涨、不崩，波动率缩到异常低，意味着全球市场都在"憋气"。 真正该担心的下跌，就是这种没人说话、没人接盘、慢慢往下的。 波动率下降——这五个字尤为重要，它等同于"没有情绪宣泄"。说明卖的人是"冷静的"，不是被吓坏的。 波动率压缩是"下一步"的前奏，为接下来两种情况之一做准备： · 要么，一次情绪性加速（向上或向下）； 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 之后是联储官员发表"不支持降息"的讲话。克利夫兰联储主席表示，可能"相当长一段时 ...

周五的强势V反，为下周黄金奠定多头基础。多重利好共振下，下周黄金涨势明确，短期回落都是上车机会。基本面支撑强劲：美国ADP不及预期，降息预 期强化，美元走弱利好黄金。中东地缘风险持续，避险买需随时升温，叠加全球央行购金潮延续、黄金供需缺口扩大，中长期托底金价。美联储议息会议临 近，政策面难现强鹰派信号，进一步为黄金提供支撑。 技术面来看黄金站稳4650强支撑，反弹成交量放大，RSI指标从超卖区回升，技术面修复向好。前期空头平仓盘出清，机构抄底、ETF持仓边际回流，资金 面多空转换完成，4800是短期新的支撑。 周一短期关注4850-30支撑轻仓跟进多，意外见4700还是多。上方目标先看4950-5000关口，突破后顺势上看。不充分回调不做多，耐心等待回落上车机会。 【涨势已定，回落做多为主】 下周需要关注非农数据、美联储官员讲话及中东局势动态，短期可能引发小幅震荡，但不改变整体涨势。保持理性，坚持回落做多，黄金长期以来的趋势都 是涨，顺势跟进为主，死也要死在多头上，趋势在李槿在。 寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上归。本周黄金大起大落走出过山车，先是美联储人事鹰派预期升温，美元走强，黄金跌近4402后，因机构抄底+空头回补 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures closed at 20,255 yuan per kilogram on February 5, with a daily decline of 10.85% and a trading volume of 1,653,202 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 26,300 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 6,045 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The sentiment in the domestic market remains strong, with the silver premium maintaining at 3,300 yuan per gram, indicating a potential for upward movement despite recent volatility [5] Group 2 - The U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, falling short of market expectations, and previous month's data was revised down [3] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to resume normal operations, with the non-farm payroll data scheduled for release on February 11 and CPI data on February 13 [3] - The large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. experienced significant declines, contributing to the volatility in silver prices, which have not stabilized above the $90 mark [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by economic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran negotiations [2][6]. Economic Data Summary - COMEX gold prices rose initially but closed at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices fell to 1113.78 yuan per gram, down 0.64% [2][6]. - The ISM reported that the January services PMI was 53.8, unchanged from December and at the highest level since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [2][6]. - The ADP reported an addition of 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, suggesting a weakening labor market which may raise expectations for interest rate cuts [2][6]. Geopolitical Developments Summary - The US announced the resumption of negotiations with Iran, which were previously on the verge of collapse, scheduled for February 6 [2][6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to geopolitical factors, particularly the US-Iran talks, which may influence the potential for gold prices to strengthen again [2][6]. - The article notes that the volatility in geopolitical situations complicates market predictions, indicating that trends remain unclear and require further observation [2][6].

今日周二(2月3日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于80.71一线上方，今日开盘于79.19美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报82.15美元/盎司，上涨3.79%，最高触及85.65美元/盎司，最低下探79.19美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 由于政府部分部门处于停摆状态，美国劳工统计局将不会像原计划那样在周五发布一月份的就业报告。 美国劳工统计局副局长Emily Liddel在一份声明中表示："一旦政府拨款恢复，发布计划将重新安排。由 于联邦政府部分停摆，劳工统计局将暂停数据的收集、处理和发布工作。"此外，原定于周二发布的"12 月职位空缺与劳动力流动情况调查"也将被重新安排公布日期。 但这一决定打破了原定计划。除了非农数据，劳工统计局原定于周二发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查 (JOLTS)也受到影响。目前只有ADP就业报告和供应管理协会(ISM)采购经理人指数报告中关于制造业和 服务业的就业指数仍按计划发布。 市场预计本次推迟不会像2025年政府停摆导致的经济数据滞后时间那么长。这意味着它不太可能影响联 邦公开市场委员会的下一次利率决议，政策制定者们定于3月17日至18 ...

2月2日，周一，亚市时段，现货黄金在获利了结盘压力下大幅下挫，延续前两个交易日跌势，现交投于 每盎司4555美元附近，日内跌幅约6%，截至13：54，此前一度跌7.5%至三周低点4497.39美元/盎司，上 周五金价跌幅近10%。此前，凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的消息缓解了市场对美联储独立性 的担忧，美国政治稳定性显现迹象，促使金价在上周创下历史高点后延续跌势。另一方面，包括美伊紧 张局势缓解在内的地缘风险支撑部分退场，可能削减黄金等传统避险资产吸引力。交易员将密切关注美 伊谈判进展，以及沃什政策方向的进一步明朗化。 当前盘面来看，本周是非农数据周，需要关注周内数据的影响，周三的ADP数据，周四的失业金数据， 周五的非农数据，都会影响暂时市场和技术面的看法。从技术面来看，黄金暂时必须承认还是极弱状 态，在周五下跌到4688后反弹最高在4950，但今天开盘，黄金再次到了4700附近，所以，暂时还是极弱 状态，本周黄金只要不过4950就是极弱状态，破位4950可能陷入震荡（日线收阳），破位5100，可以确 定黄金再次走强，然后再多头趋势看大涨空间，上方在看5600高点，所以，周初黄金还是看一个弱势状 态。 ...