Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Multi-factor Stock Selection Model **Construction Idea**: The model selects effective factors from a factor library to construct weekly enhanced index strategies for different stock pools (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) [68] **Construction Process**: 1. **Factor Selection**: Hundreds of factors from the equity factor library are screened for effectiveness in the respective stock pools [68] 2. **Portfolio Optimization**: - For CSI 300: Strictly neutralize market capitalization and industry, set individual stock weight limits at 8% and deviation limits at 3% [68] - For CSI 500: Strictly neutralize market capitalization and industry, set individual stock weight limits and deviation limits at 1% [68] - For CSI 1000: Control market capitalization deviation to 0.5 standard deviations, industry deviation to 2.5%, and set individual stock weight limits and deviation limits at 1% [68] - For CSI 2000: Control market capitalization deviation to 0.5 standard deviations, industry deviation to 2.5%, and set individual stock weight limits and deviation limits at 0.5% [68] 3. **Weekly Tracking**: The performance of the enhanced index strategies is tracked weekly [68] Model Backtesting Results - **CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy**: - Weekly return: 0.63%, excess return: 0.71% [69] - Monthly return: 2.02%, excess return: 0.82% [69] - Annual return: 24.02%, excess return: 7.6%, maximum drawdown: -3.15% [69] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy**: - Weekly return: 1%, excess return: -0.02% [69] - Monthly return: 2.55%, excess return: 0.58% [69] - Annual return: 26.41%, excess return: 1.19%, maximum drawdown: -4.76% [69] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy**: - Weekly return: -0.64%, excess return: -1.03% [73] - Monthly return: 0.92%, excess return: 0.42% [73] - Annual return: 36.94%, excess return: 13.22%, maximum drawdown: -5.59% [73] - **CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy**: - Weekly return: -0.62%, excess return: -0.67% [73] - Monthly return: -0.25%, excess return: -0.58% [73] - Annual return: 59.24%, excess return: 27.14%, maximum drawdown: -5.23% [73] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Standardized Unexpected Price-to-Book Ratio **Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of the price-to-book ratio from expectations, reflecting valuation anomalies [34] **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the raw factor value for each stock [34] 2. Apply absolute median method for outlier removal [34] 3. Perform Z-Score standardization [34] 4. Neutralize the factor by regressing against logarithmic market capitalization and industry dummy variables, using the residuals as the final factor values [34] - **Factor Name**: Analyst Forecast Net Profit FY1 120-day Change **Construction Idea**: Tracks changes in analysts' net profit forecasts over the past 120 days, reflecting market sentiment and expectations [35] **Construction Process**: 1. Collect analysts' net profit forecasts for FY1 over the past 120 days [35] 2. Calculate the percentage change in forecasts over the period [35] - **Factor Name**: Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3 **Construction Idea**: Measures analysts' expectations for revenue growth in FY3, capturing long-term growth potential [37] **Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate analysts' revenue growth forecasts for FY3 [37] 2. Standardize the data and calculate the growth rate [37] Factor Backtesting Results - **CSI 300 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly factors: Standardized Unexpected Price-to-Book Ratio (1.97%), Analyst Forecast Net Profit FY1 120-day Change (1.67%), Past 90-day Report Upgrade Ratio (1.39%) [35] - Best annual factors: Single-quarter ROE (25.63%), Single-quarter Revenue YoY Growth Rate (25.1%), Single-quarter ROA Change (22.51%) [35] - **CSI 500 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly factors: Net Operating Asset Return (1.5%), Past 90-day Post-announcement Report Upgrade Ratio (1.16%), Analyst Forecast Net Profit FY3 120-day Change (1.11%) [36] - Best annual factors: Analyst Forecast Net Profit Growth Rate FY3 (15.13%), Analyst Forecast Revenue FY3 120-day Change (14.74%), Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3 (14.74%) [36] - **CSI 1000 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly factors: Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3 (1.82%), Analyst Forecast Revenue FY3 120-day Change (1.76%), 90-day Earnings Upgrade Ratio (1.7%) [37] - Best annual factors: Analyst Forecast ROE FY3 120-day Change (21.77%), Standardized Unexpected Single-quarter ROE with Drift (20.54%), Standardized Unexpected Single-quarter Net Profit with Drift (20.32%) [37] - **CSI 2000 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly factors: Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3 (2.24%), Analyst Forecast Net Profit Growth Rate FY3 (2.15%), Post-morning 30-minute Price Change (1.92%) [38] - Best annual factors: Standardized Unexpected Single-quarter Excluding Non-recurring Net Profit with Drift (25.17%), Past 90-day Report Upgrade Ratio (24.28%), 5-minute Volume Skewness (23.98%) [38] - **CSI All-share Stock Pool**: - Best weekly factors: Analyst Forecast ROE FY3 120-day Change (2.5%), Analyst Forecast ROA FY3 (2.36%), Analyst ROE FY3 (2.27%) [39] - Best annual factors: Analyst Forecast ROE FY3 120-day Change (27.33%), Single-quarter Revenue YoY Growth Rate (21.77%), Analyst Forecast ROA FY3 120-day Change (21.27%) [39] --- Large Factor Categories and Performance - **CSI 300 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly categories: Analyst Surprise (1.57%), Profitability (1.45%), Growth (1.22%) [45][46] - Best annual categories: Profitability (31.35%), Analyst Surprise (27.31%), Growth (26.87%) [45][46] - **CSI 500 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly categories: Profitability (1.6%), Growth (0.39%), Analyst (0.01%) [52][53] - Best annual categories: Growth (16.53%), Analyst (9.54%), Analyst Surprise (7.35%) [52][53] - **CSI 1000 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly categories: Profitability (0.05%), Growth (0.03%), Analyst (-0.06%) [54][57] - Best annual categories: Growth (17.31%), Analyst Surprise (11.02%), Analyst (10.98%) [54][57] - **CSI 2000 Stock Pool**: - Best weekly categories: Analyst (0.46%), Profitability (-0.58%), Growth (-0.61%) [60][62] - Best annual categories: Market Capitalization (23.11%), Analyst Surprise (20.67%), Growth (20.33%) [60][62] - **CSI All-share Stock Pool**: - Best weekly categories: Analyst (0.32%), Analyst Surprise (0.19%), Profitability (-0.14%) [63][65] - Best annual categories: Market Capitalization (42.55%), Growth (24.85%), Analyst Surprise (22.12%) [63][65]