核心盈利能力修复
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交通银行(601328):核心盈利能力稳步修复
HTSC· 2025-10-31 06:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate/Buy" rating for the company’s A/H shares [1][5][7] Core Views - The company's core profitability is steadily recovering, with a year-on-year increase in net profit, revenue, and pre-provision operating profit of 1.9%, 1.8%, and 0.7% respectively for the first nine months of 2025 [1] - The asset quality indicators remain robust, with a declining non-performing loan ratio and stable capital adequacy ratios, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the annualized ROA and ROE were 0.62% and 8.48%, showing slight declines of 0.02 percentage points and 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net interest margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 1.20%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the first half of 2025, but the decline in the cost of liabilities is narrowing [2] Revenue and Income - Net interest income increased by 1.5% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, while net fee and commission income turned positive with a growth of 0.2% [3] - Other non-interest income showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, driven by favorable performance in wealth management-related income [3] Asset Quality and Capital - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 1.26%, with a provision coverage ratio of 210%, indicating a marginal decline in non-performing loans [4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.37%, reflecting a slight decrease but still maintaining a relatively ample level of capital [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 956 billion, 982 billion, and 1,016 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 8.76 RMB for A shares and 9.23 HKD for H shares in 2026 [5][11]