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香港第一金PPLI金评:美联储维持利率不变 使美元走强黄金空头压制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 05:53
Market Overview - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching the 100 mark for the first time since May 29, with an intraday increase of 0.23%, putting pressure on gold prices, which struggled to break the $3300 per ounce level [1] - The core PCE inflation for June has shown signs of deterioration, with a 3-month annualized rate of 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same period last year, indicating a potential challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1] Employment Data - The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were reported at 218,000, slightly above the previous value of 217,000 and below the expected 224,000, which negatively impacted gold and silver prices [2] Commodity Market Reactions - President Trump's unexpected announcement to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff led to a record single-day drop in US copper prices, prompting investors to adjust their positions significantly [2] - The market is also reacting to comments from the US Treasury Secretary regarding expected economic acceleration, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Technical Analysis - The hourly chart for spot gold shows prices operating within the lower Bollinger Band, with a potential V-shaped reversal attempt after hitting $3267 per ounce, but facing significant resistance at the mid-band [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates that gold remains under pressure, needing to rise above $3320 or $3334 per ounce to confirm the end of the bearish trend [3] Daily Trends - The daily chart reveals that after hitting a high of $3435 per ounce, gold has experienced four consecutive days of declines, with selling pressure currently outweighing buying interest [5] - The MACD indicator suggests increasing buying pressure, but if gold falls below $3267 per ounce, the next support levels to watch are $3245 and $3250 per ounce [5] Investment Strategy - Suggested short positions for gold at $3334 with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $3290, and at $3345 with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $3300 [7]