Market Overview - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching the 100 mark for the first time since May 29, with an intraday increase of 0.23%, putting pressure on gold prices, which struggled to break the $3300 per ounce level [1] - The core PCE inflation for June has shown signs of deterioration, with a 3-month annualized rate of 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same period last year, indicating a potential challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1] Employment Data - The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were reported at 218,000, slightly above the previous value of 217,000 and below the expected 224,000, which negatively impacted gold and silver prices [2] Commodity Market Reactions - President Trump's unexpected announcement to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff led to a record single-day drop in US copper prices, prompting investors to adjust their positions significantly [2] - The market is also reacting to comments from the US Treasury Secretary regarding expected economic acceleration, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Technical Analysis - The hourly chart for spot gold shows prices operating within the lower Bollinger Band, with a potential V-shaped reversal attempt after hitting $3267 per ounce, but facing significant resistance at the mid-band [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates that gold remains under pressure, needing to rise above $3320 or $3334 per ounce to confirm the end of the bearish trend [3] Daily Trends - The daily chart reveals that after hitting a high of $3435 per ounce, gold has experienced four consecutive days of declines, with selling pressure currently outweighing buying interest [5] - The MACD indicator suggests increasing buying pressure, but if gold falls below $3267 per ounce, the next support levels to watch are $3245 and $3250 per ounce [5] Investment Strategy - Suggested short positions for gold at $3334 with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $3290, and at $3345 with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $3300 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, highlighting the positive impact of favorable employment data and upcoming economic indicators on investor sentiment. It also focuses on specific companies, Amazon and Tesla, analyzing their current market positions and potential future performance. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains last week, with the Dow Jones rising by 2.3%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up by 1.6% [4][5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, indicating a reduction in economic concerns among investors [4]. Economic Indicators - Investors are advised to closely monitor key economic indicators, including inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings, as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into future interest rate directions [7]. Company Analysis: Amazon - Amazon's Prime Day shopping event is set to take place from July 8 to July 11, with expectations of strong stock performance [10][12]. - Sales during Prime Day are projected to reach $21 billion, a substantial increase of 60% compared to the previous year [12]. - Amazon's stock closed at $223.41, near its 52-week high of $242.52, with a three-month return rate of 30.6% [10][12]. - Analysts have rated Amazon's financial health at 3.09, indicating an "excellent" level, and Morgan Stanley has named it a "top investment choice" [13][16]. Company Analysis: Tesla - Tesla is facing challenges due to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement, which has led to increased stock volatility [18][19]. - The stock price has fluctuated significantly, dropping from a high of $488 in December to $315.35 recently, reflecting sensitivity to political and leadership risks [20][24]. - Concerns about Musk's focus on Tesla's core business amid political tensions have shaken investor confidence [25]. - Tesla's current stability rating is 2.45, categorized as "average," with predictions suggesting a potential decline to a more reasonable price of $276.84 [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the National Bank of Poland stated that the bank does not predict the direction of interest rates [1] Group 1 - The National Bank of Poland is currently refraining from making forecasts regarding interest rate movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has reduced its risk exposure since the announcement of significant tariffs by President Trump in April, preparing for ongoing uncertainties in the market [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The company has moderately lowered its risk positions since April 2, indicating a prudent approach to managing potential market volatility [1] - Goldman Sachs is committed to taking on substantial risks for its clients while also aiming to reduce its own risk where possible [1] - The firm is preparing for continued uncertainty in the coming months by maintaining a larger liquidity buffer [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - John Waldron, widely seen as a successor to current CEO David Solomon, described the tariff measures as "highly destructive" [1] - Companies are beginning to make business decisions based on the assumption that tariffs may rise to 10% to 15%, indicating a shift towards a more cautious capital expenditure and M&A environment [1] - Despite these challenges, the U.S. economy remains strong, supported by a solid job market and consumer spending, with a low likelihood of recession [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the unsustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit, with voices from the bond market gaining attention [1] - The primary concern in the current market is the direction of interest rates, particularly the path of long-term rates, which are rising significantly in the U.S., Japan, and many other countries [1] - The increase in long-term yields may potentially suppress economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The UK is considering adjusting monthly CPI data to better measure inflation trends [1] - The adjustment aims to eliminate seasonal fluctuations, aiding the Bank of England and investors in assessing inflationary pressures [1] - The Office for National Statistics plans to consult on whether to compile seasonally adjusted month-on-month inflation data in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Other countries like the US and France already use this technique to mitigate price volatility caused by seasonal changes [1] - This adjustment is seen as a significant shift for those trying to gauge inflation direction and potential interest rate movements [1] - Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated that this will provide a better and more reliable indicator of current price pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, expressed uncertainty regarding the direction of interest rates following the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's recent discussions indicate a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments [1] - Bailey's comments reflect a broader hesitance within the central bank regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article anticipates that Powell will maintain a "cautious wait-and-see" stance during the upcoming press conference, providing little guidance on the next steps for interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic Outlook**: Economists, including Tom Porcelli from PGIM Fixed Income, suggest that Powell will reiterate his previous statements, emphasizing the need to wait and observe how economic growth and inflation are impacted by various uncertainties [1] - **Uncertainty Factors**: There remains significant uncertainty regarding the shocks to economic growth and inflation, as well as the timing of these events, which Powell is expected to highlight [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market downturn in the U.S. stock market, driven by fears of a trade war initiated by President Trump, leading to a reassessment of economic outlooks, inflation trends, interest rates, and corporate earnings [3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, which is expected to influence market volatility if it exceeds expectations [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be released, with particular attention to inflation expectations [3][4]. Company Earnings Reports - The earnings season is approaching, with major companies like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Delta Air Lines set to report their results, which will provide insights into consumer and corporate demand [5]. Cal-Maine Foods - Cal-Maine Foods is expected to report a significant increase in earnings, with estimates suggesting a rise of over 250% year-over-year, driven by a shortage in egg supply and strong demand [6][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Cal-Maine is $10.75, up from $3.01 in the same quarter last year, with quarterly revenue expected to grow by 102% to $1.42 billion [8]. - Despite recent declines in egg prices due to softening consumer demand, the company remains optimistic due to ongoing supply issues from avian influenza [8][10]. Delta Air Lines - Delta Air Lines faces a challenging outlook, with analysts downgrading earnings forecasts due to a weakening economy affecting consumer spending [11][13]. - The expected EPS for Delta is $0.44, reflecting a slight decline of 2% year-over-year, with revenue anticipated to grow by 7% to $13.6 billion [13]. - The airline's stock has seen a significant drop of 38.4% year-to-date, and concerns about its financial health are reflected in a moderate rating of 5.9 out of 10, primarily due to issues with its balance sheet and cash flow [15].