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建信期货棉花日报-20250919
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:30
Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Key Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton market weakened. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,319 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton was mostly at CF01+1500 or above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton was in the range of CF01+1100 - 1250, and most quotes of the same quality were at CF01+1250 or above, for self-pickup in the inland [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market was mediocre, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than in previous years. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and spinning mills sold products at prevailing prices. Cotton yarn prices remained stable overall with a slow downward trend. The shipment of the cotton greige fabric market continued, with stable prices and actual transactions negotiated based on quantity. The order competition among home textile factories was fierce, with low order processing fees, and weaving factories prioritized inventory reduction [7]. Market Analysis - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen. After the short-term expectation was fulfilled, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded, and US cotton fluctuated and adjusted. In the domestic market, as new cotton was approaching the market, the market generally expected this year's new cotton supply to be between 7.3 and 7.5 million tons. Recently, the pre - purchase price also slightly dropped to around 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The supply side would gradually shift from a stage of tightness to abundance, increasing the upward pressure on the futures market. On the demand side, the downstream industry had little confidence in the traditional peak season, and overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years. Currently, the finished product inventory was still slightly decreasing, the operating rate of downstream weaving factories had a seasonal slight increase, and there was still support from rigid demand. With the expectation of a bumper harvest yet to be fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton weakened in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.07 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 million tons [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 910,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.41 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 260,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20]