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棉花:关注新作情况和外部市场情绪影响
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:42
商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 棉花:关注新作情况和外部市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,120 20,165 | 0.64% 0.52% | 14145 20170 | 0.18% | | | | | | | | 0.02% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.38 | -0.91% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 330,783 | 116,564 | 731,041 | 3,462 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 8,008 | -1,999 | 22,276 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 ...
棉花:期价窄幅波动等待新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:00
2025 年 8 月 22 日 棉花:期价窄幅波动等待新的驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,030 20,060 | -0.18% -0.02% | 14045 20110 | 0.11% 0.25% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.47 | -0.09% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 198,093 | -180,332 | 733,904 | -4,203 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 5,701 | -1,999 | 22,074 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...
棉花:继续上涨需要新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton needs new drivers to continue rising [1] - Concerns about demand remain the main factor limiting the rise of ICE cotton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25%, and 14,105 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.11%. CY2511 closed at 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.35%, and 20,145 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.20%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 67.48 cents/pound with a decline of 0.16% [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 261,447 lots, a decrease of 93,841 lots from the previous day, and the position was 768,486 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 7,393 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,336 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,829, a decrease of 93, and the effective forecast was 249, a decrease of 24. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,192 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price in Shandong was 15,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Hebei was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or - 0.18%. The 3128B index was 15,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 75.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.12%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.10%, and the arrival price was 22,131 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan or 0.12% [1] - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with spinning mills making mainly rigid - demand purchases. The road freight for cotton out of Xinjiang increased slightly in some areas. The spot basis was stable. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1600 for inland self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, with increased transactions and downstream replenishment purchases. Yarn prices rose slightly, and spinning mills' operating rates changed little and remained under production restrictions. The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market was average, with insufficient downstream orders. Most fabric mills were pessimistic about purchasing. The operating rates of fabric mills in Guangdong were stable, and those in the north recovered slightly, but the overall operating rate was low. Grey fabric quotes were raised, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures declined slightly last Friday. Concerns about demand remained the main factor limiting its rise [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of integers in the [- 2, 2] interval. [- 2] represents the most bearish view, and [2] represents the most bullish view [6]
建信期货棉花日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:03
Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]
棉花:新作丰产预期限制期价涨幅
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:09
Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]
建信期货棉花日报-20250814
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:51
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rose on heavy volume boosted by the external market. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Xinjiang Kashgar lint in 2024/25 was in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, and most quotes were above CF09+1200. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton was mostly above CF09+1450 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market improved slightly as the peak season approached, with fewer low-price resources and a slightly higher trading center. The overall demand for cotton grey cloth did not see a large release, only a slight improvement in some areas compared to July. Factories were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey cloth decreased. Sampling increased, but most actual orders were not placed [7] - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and causing the US dollar index to decline. The USDA August supply and demand report showed that the estimated sown area of US cotton in 2025/26 was reduced to 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 8.1% from the June report. The estimated harvested area was 7.36 million acres, and the abandonment rate increased from 14.4% to 20.7%. The domestic new cotton output was expected to increase steadily, bringing phased pressure. The downstream market improved marginally, with an increase in sampling orders for grey cloth and better yarn sales after the cotton price stabilized. Today, boosted by the external market, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - The August USDA monthly supply and demand report significantly reduced the sown area of US cotton by 17%, resulting in a 300,000-ton reduction in US cotton output in 2025/26 to 2.88 million tons, a 110,000-ton reduction in exports to 2.61 million tons, and a 220,000-ton reduction in ending stocks to 780,000 tons. The USDA also increased China's cotton output in 2025/26 by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons and consumption by 220,000 tons to 8.16 million tons. Global cotton output decreased by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, and consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [18][19][20]
棉花:延续震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 01:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The cotton market continues to show a volatile trend. The domestic cotton spot trading is sluggish, the cotton - textile industry shows mixed performance, and the ICE cotton futures in the US rebounded after a decline. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25% and a night - session price of 13,825 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,605 yuan/ton with a 0.51% daily decline and a night - session price of 19,715 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. The ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.36 cents/pound with a 0.84% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 181,994 lots, a decrease of 14,812 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 743,288 lots, a decrease of 4,927 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 5,708 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,252, a decrease of 77, and the effective forecast was 330, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 83, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 160 yuan/ton, with a 5 - yuan increase from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different basis ranges for cotton sales [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has improved slightly compared to the previous period, with downstream demand - based procurement. The overall performance is still average. The full - cotton greige fabric market is generally dull, with some improvements in local orders [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on August 12 [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].
建信期货棉花日报-20250808
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:20
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Domestic Market - Zhengzhou cotton futures adjusted with position reduction and contract switching. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low - basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales were at CF09 + 1500 and above, picked up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) in North and South Xinjiang was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' supply was reported around 1550 - 1750, picked up in the inland [7]. - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a drop of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning mills were still limiting production. Due to losses in cotton yarn, the price - concession was not large, and the decline in Xinjiang spinning mills was relatively larger. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth continued to have insufficient transactions. The sampling orders of fabric mills were less than the same period of previous years, and there were few actual orders, mostly for rigid demand. It was expected that the factory production would remain sluggish in early August, and fabric mills would still produce conventional varieties, with improvement expected to start in mid - August [7]. International Market - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period of the previous year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period of the previous year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period of the previous year), and the lint - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period of the previous year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained a range - bound shock [8]. Overall Market Outlook - There was still more than a month until the new cotton was listed. The market expected the opening price would not be higher than 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to a lint processing cost of around 13,500 yuan/ton. The downstream industry was still weak, and the finished - product inventory of fabric mills was still high, but there was an increase in local sampling orders, and the marginal deterioration of the downstream slowed down. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market stabilized with shocks. The near - month contracts were under pressure as they were approaching delivery and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports totaled 170.741 billion US dollars (169.680 billion US dollars in the same period of the previous year), a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 11.604 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.162 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][18]
棉花 基本面改善有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-07 13:48
Group 1 - Recent cotton futures prices have experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions, leading to intense long-short market battles [1] - Cotton consumption averaged around 750,000 tons per month from March to May, with June consumption at 697,000 tons and 320,000 tons in the first half of July, indicating that the first half of the year exceeded expectations [1] - The strong cotton consumption during the "golden three silver four" months is attributed to good export data and increasing production capacity in Xinjiang, which is expected to reach 30 million spindles by 2025, creating a localized tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The cotton spinning mills' operating rate has decreased to 47.8% as of July 25, down to last year's levels, while the overall weaving mills' operating rate is at 44.4%, also lower than the previous year [1] - Raw material inventory for spinning mills is at 30.8 days, with finished goods inventory at 30.1 days, indicating a slowdown in accumulation [1] - Weaving mills have a cotton yarn inventory of 5.4 days, with a slight replenishment, while the finished goods inventory for cotton fabric is at 37.2 days, showing significant accumulation, particularly in the fabric segment, leading to a lack of confidence in the market outlook [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market discussions regarding the ability of the 2509 contract bulls to take delivery, with no significant cancellation of warehouse receipts observed, but an increase in effective forecasts [2] - The 2509 contract's delivery logic suggests that the market may revert to a backwardation state, with expectations of a return to near parity levels [2] - The market anticipates a bumper crop of 7.2 million tons for the new season, with favorable planting conditions and expectations of early new cotton sales, although high basis levels complicate next year's basis trading [2] Group 4 - The withdrawal of bulls from the 09 contract has confirmed the lack of cost-effectiveness in taking delivery, while the validation of the 9-1 price spread remains ongoing [3] - As September approaches, market focus will shift to new cotton negotiations, with potential for localized rush buying [3]
建信期货棉花日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:44
Report Information - **Report Date**: August 7, 2025 [2] - **Industry**: Cotton [1] - **Research Analysts**: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustments. The spot cotton price has increased slightly, while the cotton yarn market price continues to decline, and the cotton fabric market remains sluggish. The international cotton market maintains a range - bound oscillation, and the domestic cotton has a high yield expectation, but the downstream industry is weak. After the short - term release of pessimistic sentiment, the market stabilizes, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price continues to decline by about 300 yuan/ton, with many inland spinning mills still limiting production. The cotton fabric market has insufficient transactions, and the factory production is expected to be sluggish in early August and improve in mid - August. The domestic cotton sown area has increased year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high yield. However, the downstream industry is weak, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] - **International Market**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, remaining stable from the previous week and higher than the same period last year. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slower, and the external market maintains a range - bound oscillation. [8] 3.2. Industry News - As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil is 29.7%, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvest is slower due to the impact of rain during the planting stage in Mato Grosso. However, the cotton growth is good, and the listing is expected to accelerate after the completion of corn and wheat harvests [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [15][19][26]