研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 21.7 | | | | | | | | CN ...

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉大缩量收涨。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 16103 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨 170 元/吨。20 ...

Group 1: Report Basics - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices soared. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for 31-grade double 29/ impurity within 3 for machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar in the 2025/26 season was mostly at CF05 + 950 or higher, with the 950 - 1000 basis range narrowing. In northern Xinjiang, it was mostly above 1100, with some below, and many quotes close to 1200 or higher, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was divided. Some inland spinning enterprises gradually reduced production capacity, and small spinning enterprises began to take holidays. Orders lacked sustainability, and the focus was on inventory preparation. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a certain level of sales and high operation rates. The demand in the all-cotton grey fabric market decreased, and fabric mills were winding down. Spot market inquiries declined. In terms of varieties, the sales of regular C32S, C21S, and lower-grade yarn cards were weaker than before, and current prices remained stable [7]. Market Analysis - Macroeconomically, due to Trump's "yo-yo" remarks on the US dollar and signs that traders were watching for possible coordinated actions by the US and Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index hit a four-year low, and the commodity market was generally strong. Overseas, according to the US Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower year-on-year (the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 2.95 million tons). The overseas market rebounded from a low. In the domestic market, the expected decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season had been partially factored in, and the reduction plan was to be gradually implemented over 3 - 5 years. On the demand side, orders for some medium and high-grade varieties were stable, while others were weak. Manufacturers in the yarn and fabric sectors were eager to collect payments, and most merchants expected enterprises to start taking holidays next week. Affected by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of the week ending January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, up from 36.3% the previous week, compared with 46.3% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 40.9% [9]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the yarn production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 2.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative yarn production from January to December was 22.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The fabric production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 3.01 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The cumulative fabric production from January to December was 30.67 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, CF spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][29]

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 ＃summary＃ 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 纯棉纱市场交投一般，贸易商和下游布厂刚需采购。近期溯源单逐渐下放， 个别纺企反馈排单已至 3 月。部分纱厂对后市较有信心，挺价意愿明显。全棉坯 布市场行情进入收尾阶段，由于多数厂商对节 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market has been oscillating and rising. The domestic cotton spot price is supported by a firm basis, while the international cotton price remains weak, leading to a widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The demand side of the cotton yarn market shows a differentiated trend, with high - count yarn orders better than medium - and low - count yarns. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and rose. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang was relatively high. The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with high - count yarn prices strong due to low production capacity and high demand, while the transaction focus of air - spun and low - count yarns moved slightly downward. The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth in some local markets was acceptable, and thin plain grey cloth had relatively better sales [7] - **Domestic Market Data**: As of January 21, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 7.0601 million tons, an increase of 19,900 tons from the previous day, with 6.9698 million tons in Xinjiang, an increase of 18,000 tons. Recently, cotton merchants have increased their purchases of cotton spot, and the basis for cotton spot sales has gradually risen [8] - **Market Situation and Suggestions**: The domestic cotton spot price is difficult to fall due to the firm basis, while the international cotton price is weak, resulting in a continuous high gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The import volume of cotton yarn has increased recently. The demand side of the cotton yarn market is differentiated. With limited changes in fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase in the short term, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [8] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that Trump plans to visit China in April, and there may be a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US before the visit, focusing on basic goods and services and avoiding sensitive issues such as technology and rare earths. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called on both sides to implement the consensus of the heads of state to inject stability into economic and trade cooperation [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][17][27]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures: CF01 closed at 15155 with a 10-point increase, CF05 at 14535 (10-point increase), CF09 at 14705 (5-point increase), CY05 at 20515 (unchanged), and CY09 at 20625 (55-point decrease). CY01 had no trading [2]. - Spot: CCIndex3128B was 15819 yuan/ton (-61), Cot A was 74.80 cents/pound, and various other spot prices were provided with their respective changes [2]. - Spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外价差, were presented with their corresponding values and changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On January 21, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1678 yuan/ton·km, up 0.96% from the previous day. It's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [4]. - As of January 15, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 85.1 tons, almost the same as the previous year. Textile mills purchased 75 tons (down 1%), and unsold new cotton was 7.4 tons (down 5%) [4]. - In December 2025, the export of all-cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters (up 9.3% year-on-year), and the export value was $45.68 million (up 5.3%). For the whole year of 2025, the cumulative export was 639 million meters (up 23.17%) and the cumulative export value was $613 million (up 9.34%) [5]. Trading Logic - Cotton sales are progressing quickly and are at a high level compared to previous years. Downstream demand for stocking is increasing, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading. - Options: Hold off on trading [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The domestic pure cotton yarn market is sluggish overall, with a differentiation between product categories. High-count combed yarns are in high demand, while low-count yarn prices are stable or decreasing, and regular yarn orders are mediocre [8]. - The all-cotton grey cloth market has continuous transactions, mainly small and scattered orders. Some areas are starting to collect payments, and factories are increasing production to fulfill orders [8]. Group 3: Options - Volatility: On January 19, 2026, the 60-day HV of cotton was 9.2812, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF605-C-14600, CF605-C-14200, and CF605-P-13800 were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [10]. - Strategy: Hold off on trading options [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes charts showing various cotton price spreads and basis, such as the 1% tariff on the domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1st, 5th, and 9th month basis, CY05-CF05 and CY01-CF01 spreads, and CF9-1 and CF5-9 spreads [14][17][21]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton futures are in a wide - range shock adjustment phase and are awaiting new drivers. The cotton market shows different trends in supply and demand. The supply side has relatively high inventory levels, while the demand side shows certain growth in the clothing and textile industry [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures are in a shock - adjustment state. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang is different. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with high - count yarns performing well and medium - low - count and air - spun yarns facing inventory pressure. The cotton fabric market has a weak trading atmosphere at the end of the year, and production is expected to decline [7] - **Supply Situation**: As of January 18, 2026, the national cumulative cotton inspection is 6.9915 million tons, with 6.9046 million tons in Xinjiang. In December 2025, cotton imports are 180,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cotton imports from January to December 2025 are 1.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons year - on - year. The cotton processing volume in the 2025/26 season is increasing rapidly, and the commercial inventory level at the end of December is higher than last year [8] - **Demand Situation**: In December 2025, the revenue of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China is 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The cumulative revenue from January to December 2025 is 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Sales Revenue**: In December 2025, the revenue of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China is 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The cumulative revenue from January to December 2025 is 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [9] - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's cotton imports are 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (31.0% increase). The cumulative cotton imports from January to December 2025 are 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons (59.1% decrease). In December 2025, China's棉纱 imports are 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (11.9% increase). The cumulative 棉纱 imports from January to December 2025 are 1.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons (1.5% decrease) [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inter - contract spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][27]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Report Core Views - The Zhengzhou Cotton futures market is experiencing a wide - range shock adjustment in the short term, awaiting new driving forces, while the medium - to - long - term positive trend remains unchanged [8] - The international cotton market has relatively balanced supply and demand, with a slight positive bias in the USDA monthly report [8] - The domestic cotton market shows a decline in the planned cotton - planting area in 2026, and the textile and clothing exports in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang is relatively high. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with few new orders, and the full - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, but some areas have started pre - holiday replenishment [7] - **Overseas Market**: The USDA monthly report lowered the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons, while increasing global cotton consumption by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has been rising, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Market Data**: As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day. The planned cotton - planting area in 2026 is 44.386 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.9% [8] 2. Industry News - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative exports were 293.767 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9] - As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day, including 6.7654 million tons in Xinjiang and 46,500 tons in the inland areas [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][19]

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term due to weak export sales data and a lack of upward drivers [5][16]. - Domestic cotton futures and spot prices are stable. Zhengzhou cotton futures are likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **ICE Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 64.46 cents/pound, high 64.80 cents/pound, low 63.68 cents/pound, close 64.01 cents/pound, down 0.45 cents/pound, down 0.70%, volume 75,909 lots, volume change - 7,304 lots, open interest 177,412 lots, open interest change - 2,875 lots [5]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 14,535 yuan/ton, high 14,640 yuan/ton, low 14,390 yuan/ton, close 14,585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, volume 1,147,629 lots, volume change - 600,223 lots, open interest 860,725 lots, open interest change - 43,135 lots [5]. - **Cotton Yarn Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 20,595 yuan/ton, high 20,650 yuan/ton, low 20,480 yuan/ton, close 20,585 yuan/ton, unchanged, volume 36,697 lots, volume change - 23,407 lots, open interest 19,590 lots, open interest change - 3,612 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Initial rebound was weak, failed to break through 65 cents/pound, and declined in the second half of the week due to a stronger US dollar and poor weekly export sales data [5]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending December 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 41,400 tons, a 40% week - on - week decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 33,300 tons, a 9% week - on - week increase and a 23% increase from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.4863 million tons, accounting for 57% of the annual forecast export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 640,000 tons, accounting for 43% of the total annual signed volume [6]. - **Other Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The government resumed imposing an 11% import tariff on cotton from January 1, 2026. There are concerns about reduced yarn production due to supply shortages and increased import costs [6]. - **Brazil**: As of December 27, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season was 25.1%, an 8.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage point slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage point slower than the three - year average [7]. - **Pakistan**: The domestic cotton market has limited trading. The daily arrival of seed cotton has dropped below 1,550 tons, and most ginneries have completed their processing for the year. The expected total production of new cotton is 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [7]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending December 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises were 66.9% in India, 61.9% in Vietnam, and 65.5% in Pakistan [8]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Prices and Transactions**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices were stable in the week ending January 2. Early in the week, there were some transactions of fixed - price old cotton from the 2023/24 season and some low - basis new offers, but subsequent transactions were light. The spot sales basis changed little, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9][10]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, there were 5,712 registered warehouse receipts and 3,527 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,239 lots, equivalent to 388,038 tons [10]. - **Textile Enterprises**: The situation of textile enterprises is not optimistic. The cotton yarn market has average trading. Due to weak downstream demand, the increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of yarn mills. Some spinning mills have reduced their startup rates, and the fabric market has few inquiries [11]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn mills' startup rates, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rates, cotton yarn profits, cotton cloth profits, cotton 5 - 9 spreads, cotton import profits, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [16]. - For Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][16].