行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | HE 127 | 9 | ਸ | | 不大 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 农产品研究团队 、 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏弱。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15043 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 40 元/吨。当前 2 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF01 + 1500, and the pre - sale basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang double 29 cotton was mostly above CF01 + 900 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and spinning mills sold at market prices. Cotton yarn prices were generally stable with a slow downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market maintained shipments, and grey fabric prices were stable. Overseas, U.S. cotton had a slightly lower good - to - excellent rate, an increased drought coverage in cotton - growing areas, and improved weekly export data, but overall it was in a weak and volatile range. Domestically, the purchase price of cottonseed was generally stable, but new cotton acquisition was slow due to local hail and rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Demand - side inventory was still decreasing steadily, but overall demand was weaker than the same period last year. In the short term, with limited new cotton supply, it would be weak under the pressure of a potential bumper harvest after the festival [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the latest survey by the China Cotton Association, the estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD - CNY exchange rate, and USD - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation. The spot trading of domestic cotton is sluggish with low inventory and few offers, and the spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but farmers are hesitant. The domestic cotton - textile enterprise market has general spot trading, with cotton yarn prices fluctuating slightly and the sales of cotton - cloth weakening. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is awaiting the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a night - session closing price of 13,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. CY2511 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a night - session closing price of 19,765 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.14 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume and positions of CF2601 decreased, while the positions of CY2511 increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,716, a decrease of 199 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 12. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were both 0 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,827 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day. The prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The 3128B index was 15,062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous day. The international cotton index (M:CNCottonM) was 74.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and the arrival price increased by 0.05% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton is cold, with low inventory and few offers. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but the actual trading volume at the lower price of 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg is small, and farmers are observing. The price for 2024/25 Dongjiang Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with less than 3.5 impurities is mostly CF01 + 900 - 1000, with a small number of lower quotes at 850 - 900 for inland warehouse self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The spot trading atmosphere of the pure - cotton yarn market is average. The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuates slightly in the short term, and the market is waiting for the price guidance after the new cotton is listed. The sales of the cotton - cloth market are average, and the transactions are continuously weakening. The sales of medium - and low - count yarn cards are sustainable, while the prices of regular plain and twill fabrics are under pressure. The quoted price of cotton - cloth is stable, and the actual order price is negotiated according to the quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 棉花：关注籽棉成交价格 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,540 | -0.51% -0.08% | 13580 19765 | 0.30% | | | | | 19,660 | | | 0.53% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.61 | 0.54% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 325,107 | -104,804 | 753,685 | 16,137 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 9,857 | -1,999 | 14,281 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前 ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on September 23, 2025 [2] 3. Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 4. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton prices have weakened. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market in China and overseas shows different trends, with overall weak demand and downward - pressure on prices [7][8] 5. Summary by Section 5.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's trend has weakened. The spot cotton price has declined, and the cotton yarn market has a general performance with prices moving down slowly. The cotton fabric market maintains shipments with stable prices. The household textile factory orders are competitive with low processing fees, and factories prioritize inventory reduction. The purchase price of seed cotton is stable with a slight decline, and the acquisition volume is expected to increase during the National Day. The demand is weaker than in previous years, and the market is waiting for the opening price guidance [7][8] - **Overseas Market**: The good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas has increased, and the weekly export data has improved. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remains low, and the market is in a weak range - bound operation [8] 5.2. Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.2 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate is 15.8%, 6.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. New cotton processing by surveyed enterprises is sporadic [9]

傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 2025 年 9 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：新棉上市压力令期价承压 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,610 | -0.80% | 13575 | -0.26% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 19,675 | -0.30% | 19665 | -0.05% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.25 | -0.08% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 429,911 | 103,594 | 737,548 | 26,552 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 12,216 | -1,999 | 16,034 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Key Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton market weakened. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,319 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton was mostly at CF01+1500 or above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton was in the range of CF01+1100 - 1250, and most quotes of the same quality were at CF01+1250 or above, for self-pickup in the inland [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market was mediocre, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than in previous years. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and spinning mills sold products at prevailing prices. Cotton yarn prices remained stable overall with a slow downward trend. The shipment of the cotton greige fabric market continued, with stable prices and actual transactions negotiated based on quantity. The order competition among home textile factories was fierce, with low order processing fees, and weaving factories prioritized inventory reduction [7]. Market Analysis - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen. After the short-term expectation was fulfilled, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded, and US cotton fluctuated and adjusted. In the domestic market, as new cotton was approaching the market, the market generally expected this year's new cotton supply to be between 7.3 and 7.5 million tons. Recently, the pre - purchase price also slightly dropped to around 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The supply side would gradually shift from a stage of tightness to abundance, increasing the upward pressure on the futures market. On the demand side, the downstream industry had little confidence in the traditional peak season, and overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years. Currently, the finished product inventory was still slightly decreasing, the operating rate of downstream weaving factories had a seasonal slight increase, and there was still support from rigid demand. With the expectation of a bumper harvest yet to be fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton weakened in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.07 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 million tons [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 910,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.41 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 260,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 1500 and above, and that of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250 [7] - The cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and spinning mills sold at market prices. The cotton yarn price remained stable with a slow downward trend. The cotton fabric market maintained shipments, and the fabric price was stable [7] - Overseas, the expected Fed rate cut this week and the assessment of further monetary policy easing in the coming months led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting US cotton. In the domestic market, before the new cotton listing, trading volume was low, and the expected opening price was around 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The demand side had a slight reduction in finished - product inventory, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate increased seasonally, with rigid - demand support remaining. Fundamentally, there were limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton would continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending September 13, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 96.6%, up 9.7 percentage points from the previous week and 1.9% slower than the same period last year. As of September 11, the processing progress was 36%, and new - cotton exports declined in the short term. The quality indicators such as micronaire and strength were lower than last year [9] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, down from 54% the previous week but up from 39% in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc [17][18]