行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | HE 127 | 9 | ਸ | | 不大 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 农产品研究团队 、 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏弱。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15043 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 40 元/吨。当前 2 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 棉花：市场继续聚焦新棉上市 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,405 | -0.92% | 13490 | 0.63% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 19,610 | -0.86% | 19760 | 0.76% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.27 | 0.20% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 253,456 | -68,886 | 741,549 | 4,299 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 11,944 | -1,999 | 6,640 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF01 + 1500, and the pre - sale basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang double 29 cotton was mostly above CF01 + 900 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and spinning mills sold at market prices. Cotton yarn prices were generally stable with a slow downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market maintained shipments, and grey fabric prices were stable. Overseas, U.S. cotton had a slightly lower good - to - excellent rate, an increased drought coverage in cotton - growing areas, and improved weekly export data, but overall it was in a weak and volatile range. Domestically, the purchase price of cottonseed was generally stable, but new cotton acquisition was slow due to local hail and rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Demand - side inventory was still decreasing steadily, but overall demand was weaker than the same period last year. In the short term, with limited new cotton supply, it would be weak under the pressure of a potential bumper harvest after the festival [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the latest survey by the China Cotton Association, the estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD - CNY exchange rate, and USD - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on September 23, 2025 [2] 3. Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 4. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton prices have weakened. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market in China and overseas shows different trends, with overall weak demand and downward - pressure on prices [7][8] 5. Summary by Section 5.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's trend has weakened. The spot cotton price has declined, and the cotton yarn market has a general performance with prices moving down slowly. The cotton fabric market maintains shipments with stable prices. The household textile factory orders are competitive with low processing fees, and factories prioritize inventory reduction. The purchase price of seed cotton is stable with a slight decline, and the acquisition volume is expected to increase during the National Day. The demand is weaker than in previous years, and the market is waiting for the opening price guidance [7][8] - **Overseas Market**: The good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas has increased, and the weekly export data has improved. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remains low, and the market is in a weak range - bound operation [8] 5.2. Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.2 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate is 15.8%, 6.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. New cotton processing by surveyed enterprises is sporadic [9]

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices Fluctuate Weakly as New Cotton Approaches the Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition phase, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. With the arrival of the peak season in September, the improvement in downstream demand is relatively limited. It is expected that the cotton market will show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries may lead to selling hedging pressure on the market. [26][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to move in a range - bound manner. As of September 14, the boll opening rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 9%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 52%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts reached 42,200 tons, a 44% weekly increase and a 13% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Vietnam contracted 17,500 tons and India contracted 9,500 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 27,300 tons, an 8% weekly decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of September 12, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 986 to 19,135, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 283 to 43,577, equivalent to 990,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. [8] - **Brazil**: Brazil's cotton harvest is basically completed. The processing progress as of September 11 was 36%. Due to the slow harvest, the processing was behind schedule, and the short - term export of new Brazilian cotton declined. According to the quality report in August, indicators such as micronaire and strength declined compared to last year. [8] - **India**: In the week from September 11 to September 17, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 44.1 mm, 11.3 mm higher than the normal level and 33.4 mm higher than last year. From June 1 to September 17, 2025, the cumulative rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas was 893.1 mm, 147.6 mm higher than the normal level. [8] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA September global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons. [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The new - season cotton is at the end of the boll - opening stage. In some areas of northern Xinjiang, seed cotton has been sporadically listed, with the purchase price at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton for wadding is 7.45 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and in inland areas, the price of hand - picked seed cotton is 7.35 - 7.4 yuan/kg. The purchase price is slightly weak, and the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The supply of high - quality old cotton is limited, and the price is firm. As of September 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143,800 tons (a decrease of 10.16%) compared to last week. [26] - **Demand Side**: In the pure - cotton yarn market, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline this week, and cotton yarn futures followed suit. In the spot market, the trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the atmosphere was not as good as in previous peak seasons. The price of cotton yarn followed the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price center shifted downward. The inventory of yarn decreased this week, but the decline rate slowed down. [26] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR was 0.7569, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 1.0303. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today, indicating obvious bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. [40] Futures Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly move in a range - bound manner in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [44] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic - international cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend. - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and fabric, is presented. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report provides data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory over different time periods. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract faces significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous China - US additional tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - The main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to multiple reports, different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is performing sluggishly. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract has significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Reduced previous China - US additional tariffs, lower commercial inventory year - on - year, and enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. ICAC's 2025/26 global production forecast is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 17.1 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 production forecast is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5][12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data No position data is presented in the provided report.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 66.83 cents per pound, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.13% [1] - On September 18, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.21 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.91 cents per pound, marking a decline of 0.52% [2] - The latest data from the CFTC indicates an increase in on-call unpriced sell orders to 50,420 contracts and a rise in unpriced buy orders to 114,730 contracts as of September 12 [2] Group 2 - The China Cotton Association projects a 1.8% year-on-year increase in national cotton planting area to 44.823 million acres for 2025, with favorable weather conditions contributing to improved crop yields [2] - The total cotton production in China is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year-on-year, with an upward adjustment of 321,000 tons from the previous estimate, marking the highest output since 2013 [2] - On September 18, the average price for 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was 15,150 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 21,509 yuan per ton [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Key Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton market weakened. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,319 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton was mostly at CF01+1500 or above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton was in the range of CF01+1100 - 1250, and most quotes of the same quality were at CF01+1250 or above, for self-pickup in the inland [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market was mediocre, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than in previous years. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and spinning mills sold products at prevailing prices. Cotton yarn prices remained stable overall with a slow downward trend. The shipment of the cotton greige fabric market continued, with stable prices and actual transactions negotiated based on quantity. The order competition among home textile factories was fierce, with low order processing fees, and weaving factories prioritized inventory reduction [7]. Market Analysis - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen. After the short-term expectation was fulfilled, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded, and US cotton fluctuated and adjusted. In the domestic market, as new cotton was approaching the market, the market generally expected this year's new cotton supply to be between 7.3 and 7.5 million tons. Recently, the pre - purchase price also slightly dropped to around 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The supply side would gradually shift from a stage of tightness to abundance, increasing the upward pressure on the futures market. On the demand side, the downstream industry had little confidence in the traditional peak season, and overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years. Currently, the finished product inventory was still slightly decreasing, the operating rate of downstream weaving factories had a seasonal slight increase, and there was still support from rigid demand. With the expectation of a bumper harvest yet to be fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton weakened in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.07 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 million tons [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 910,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.41 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 260,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20]