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棕榈油价格震荡调整
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政策托底,短期高位震荡
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 12:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Supply Situation Analysis - In the domestic market, the increase in import costs and the deepening of the import profit inversion have led to a recent reduction in ship purchases. The expectation of supply surplus has been alleviated, and the decline rate of the basis has slowed down, but it remains relatively low overall [2][12]. - According to the MPOB palm oil supply - demand report on the 10th, in the major producing countries, production decreased and exports increased, but the inventory increased more than expected [2][12]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - India imported a large amount of palm oil in June, with relatively sufficient inventory, so the short - term restocking demand is low [2][12]. - In China, the large inversion of the soybean - palm oil price difference means that palm oil is mainly purchased for rigid demand. The high price has also led to short - term wait - and - see attitudes among middle and lower - stream players, resulting in low purchasing willingness and weak demand [2][12]. 5. Market Outlook - Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas. In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][12].