Core Viewpoint - Rongbai Technology has signed a significant lithium iron phosphate procurement agreement with CATL, valued at over 120 billion yuan, which has raised questions from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding the company's ability to fulfill the contract [2][6]. Group 1: Contract Details - The agreement entails Rongbai Technology supplying 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to CATL from 2026 to 2031, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan [2][4]. - CATL will prioritize Rongbai Technology for new projects and product development, while Rongbai must meet CATL's quality and delivery requirements [3][4]. - The contract does not specify annual procurement quantities or prices, but CATL expects Rongbai to continuously optimize costs to provide competitive pricing [4][6]. Group 2: Market Context - The estimated price of the agreement is approximately 39,300 yuan per ton, which is lower than the current market price of lithium iron phosphate, indicating a favorable deal for CATL [4]. - As of mid-January 2026, lithium iron phosphate prices have risen significantly, with power-type prices increasing from 43,800 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 52,000 yuan per ton [4]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate remains strong, with production rates increasing throughout 2025, reaching over 400,000 tons per month by the end of the year [4][5]. Group 3: Company Position and Challenges - Rongbai Technology currently lacks established lithium iron phosphate production lines, raising concerns about its ability to meet the contract requirements [6]. - The company has reported its first anticipated loss since data disclosure, projecting a loss of 150 to 190 million yuan for 2025, although it achieved profitability in the fourth quarter [7]. - Despite challenges, Rongbai Technology aims to become a comprehensive supplier of cathode materials, expanding its product offerings beyond high-nickel materials to include lithium manganese iron phosphate and sodium batteries [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [8] - The company's ternary materials profitability significantly improved in Q2, with a notable increase in international customer proportion, while the losses in iron-lithium continued to narrow [8] - The company has signed long-term supply agreements with LGES and SK On, expecting to ship 110,000 tons and 17,000 tons of ternary materials respectively from 2025 to 2027 [8] - The company anticipates a steady increase in profitability due to rising international customer ratios and raw material price increases [8] - The company has made significant progress in solid-state battery materials, with the first ton-level shipments of sulfide solid-state battery-specific cathode materials [8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 15.127 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1.924 billion yuan, down 14.80% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 3.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.47 [1] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 700 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.37% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.27, 28.49, and 21.00 respectively [1]