正预期与非拥挤行业组合
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行业轮动组合月报:量价行业轮动组合今年以来月胜率为100%-20250801
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-01 07:36
- The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio achieved a 100% monthly win rate this year[1][7] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio uses six dimensions of volume-price factors: momentum, trading volatility, turnover rate, long-short comparison, volume-price divergence, and volume-amplitude alignment[7] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio is constructed by selecting the top five industries with the highest composite factor values at the end of each month, using equal weighting among factors and industries[8] - The cumulative return of the "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio from 2010 to July 2025 was 797.59%, with an excess return of 686.47% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[9] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio achieved an excess return of 2.02% in July[2][11] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio is constructed by combining an analyst expectation composite factor and a crowding degree indicator, excluding the 15 industries with the lowest crowding degree, and selecting the top five industries with the highest analyst expectation composite factor values[2][11] - The cumulative return of the "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio from 2010 to July 2025 was 1145.44%, with an excess return of 1034.33% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[11] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio achieved a 13.69% return this year, with an excess return of 4.36% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[1][10] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio achieved a 5.25% return this year, with an excess return of -4.08% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[11]