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燃气月度观察:两桶油管道气政策行业影响几何?-2025-03-17
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-17 07:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gas industry, indicating a steady growth attribute and an expectation for an increase in dividend yield [2][13][28]. Core Insights - In March, PetroChina and Sinopec announced the pricing for pipeline gas contracts for 2025-2026, with PetroChina showing a slight increase in contract prices while Sinopec's prices decreased significantly. The impact on city gas companies' procurement costs is expected to be limited [2][5][12]. - The overall gas price from PetroChina has slightly increased, with adjustments in the gas source structure and floating price mechanisms. The price adjustments are expected to have minimal impact on procurement costs for city gas companies [6][12]. - Sinopec's gas pricing has seen a notable decrease, with a significant increase in the proportion of lower-priced gas types. This adjustment is expected to lower procurement costs for city gas companies [7][12]. - Domestic natural gas consumption is projected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, although growth in November and December is under pressure [8][22]. - Domestic natural gas production is expected to increase by 16.7 billion cubic meters in 2024, with an import dependency of approximately 42.6% [9][26]. Summary by Sections Gas Pricing - PetroChina's gas pricing structure shows a slight increase, with a reduction in the proportion of regulated gas and an increase in the floating price component. The overall impact on city gas companies is expected to be minimal [6][12]. - Sinopec's pricing policy has shifted towards a higher proportion of lower-priced gas, leading to a decrease in overall procurement costs for city gas companies [7][12]. Consumption Volume - The projected natural gas consumption for 2024 is 426.05 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. However, consumption growth in late 2024 is expected to be constrained due to warm winter conditions and reduced industrial demand [8][22]. Supply Volume - Domestic natural gas production is expected to reach approximately 246.4 billion cubic meters in 2024, with an increase of about 16.7 billion cubic meters, maintaining a steady growth trend [9][26].