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福耀玻璃系列专题报告(四):福耀玻璃在北美市场的发展展望
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-15 14:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [71]. Core Insights - The North American automotive glass market is projected to grow steadily, with an overall market size increasing from 19.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 24.2 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [2][8]. - Fuyao Glass is expected to achieve both volume and profit growth in the North American market, driven by its competitive advantages and ongoing investments in production capacity [58][60]. - The competitive landscape in the North American automotive glass market is characterized by high barriers to entry, leading to a favorable competitive environment with a high concentration of major suppliers [9][13]. Market Size - The North American automotive glass market is experiencing low-speed stable growth, with the overall market size projected to reach 24.2 billion yuan by 2030 from 19.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 4% [2][8]. - The average selling price (ASP) of automotive glass per vehicle is expected to increase from 960.23 yuan in 2024 to 1146.56 yuan by 2030, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3% [6][8]. - The North American automotive production volume is forecasted to grow from 16.34 million units in 2024 to 17.35 million units by 2030, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - The North American automotive glass market has a favorable competitive structure, with high entry barriers due to the need for extensive production and sales networks, stringent quality requirements, and significant capital investment [9][13]. - Fuyao Glass has become the leading automotive glass supplier in the U.S. market, with a market share of 30% [12]. - Major competitors in the North American market include Asahi Glass, Saint-Gobain, and Nippon Sheet Glass, all of which have lower profitability in their automotive glass segments compared to Fuyao [59]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Fuyao Glass, highlighting its proactive expansion into smart glass and integrated solutions, as well as its ability to capture more market share due to its high-quality and cost-effective products [63][65]. - Profit forecasts for Fuyao Glass indicate a net profit of 8.84 billion yuan in 2025, 10.39 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.18 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.13, 13.72, and 11.70 [65].