1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has abundant supply, with the domestic asphalt supply expected to remain ample in September due to the recovery of production profits and the resumption of some previously shut - down facilities. The demand is showing a seasonal rebound, with the waterproofing membrane and road - modified asphalt开工率 rising. The social inventory is decreasing, while the factory inventory is increasing. The cost is uncertain due to the volatile international oil prices. In the short term, the asphalt market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside space, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand and the movement of crude oil prices [72][73] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Asphalt Futures Main Contract Trend**: From September 8 - 12, the main contract of asphalt futures, BU2511, fluctuated downward, with a range decline of 1.64% and a range amplitude of 3.63% [6] - **1.2 - 1.4 Regional Asphalt Price Differences**: Information on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference is presented, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text other than indicating the data sources [9][12][15] 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **2.1 Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of Shandong local refineries' asphalt is - 292 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction), a week - on - week increase of 138.63 yuan/ton; that of Hebei local refineries is - 262.15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 138.52 yuan/ton; and that of Jiangsu's major refineries is 419 yuan/ton [21] - **2.2 - 2.3 Price Spreads**: On September 12, the price spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and SC*6.6 main contract was 231.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.78 yuan/ton compared to September 5. On September 11, the price spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 241.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.57 yuan/ton compared to September 4 [24][29] - **2.4 China's Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: This week, China's heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 34.9%, a week - on - week increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [32] - **2.5 China's Weekly Asphalt Output**: China's weekly asphalt output was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [36] - **2.6 Weekly Asphalt Output by Ownership**: Local refineries' weekly asphalt output was 34.30 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.04%; PetroChina's was 12.20 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%; Sinopec's was 12.20 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.42%; and CNOOC's was 2.10 tons, remaining flat [39] - **2.7 Shandong's Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Weekly Capacity Utilization**: Shandong's weekly asphalt operating rate was 36%, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [42] - **2.8 Shandong's Weekly Asphalt Output**: Shandong's weekly asphalt output was 18.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.35% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95% [45] - **2.9 - 2.10 Domestic Asphalt Plant Maintenance**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly loss of domestic asphalt plants was about 46.66 tons, a decrease of 2.03 tons compared to the previous week. Detailed information on plant maintenance in different regions and refineries is provided [48] - **2.11 Asphalt - Related Demand**: This week, the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36.07%, a week - on - week increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 6.09%; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.62%, a week - on - week increase of 4.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.87% [54] - **2.13 - 2.14 Asphalt Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 167.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%; the weekly factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 74.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.69%. In Shandong, the factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 25.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.23%; the social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 39.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.67% [56][59] - **2.15 - 2.16 Domestic Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days are provided, with some regions expected to have moderate to heavy rain [63] 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: China's heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is rising, and with the recovery of production profits and the resumption of some plants, the domestic asphalt supply is expected to remain ample in September [72] - **Demand**: With the reduction of rainfall and the alleviation of high temperatures, the rigid demand for asphalt is seasonally rebounding. In the north, demand is increasing steadily; in Shandong and Central China, demand is continuously improving; in the south, demand is being released steadily [72] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the factory inventory is increasing, indicating that the downstream提货 speed is slower than the supply growth rate [72] - **Cost**: International oil prices are fluctuating, causing uncertainty in asphalt costs and a strong market wait - and - see sentiment [72] - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2511, continues to fluctuate within a limited range, reflecting a strong market wait - and - see sentiment and a lack of breakthrough momentum [73] - **Short - Term View**: The asphalt market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside space, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand and the movement of crude oil prices [73]