周期热点直击：PPI 转正预期下甄选"HALO"板块 20260302 摘要 PPI 转正窗口期临近，预计在 4-6 月，中枢为 5 月。伊朗局势若短期失 控推升油价，可能提前至 3-4 月。需区分油价驱动型与内生修复型转正 对市场风险偏好的不同影响。 本轮美以伊冲突规模为 1979 年来最大，有向"鱼死网破"演化迹象。 短期不确定性高，但美国不投入地面部队构成约束。美国国内民意支持 率不足 50%，或提高阶段性妥协概率。 伊朗政权更迭难度极高，风险在于陷入长期混乱。面对尾部风险事件， 市场可能沿冲突升级链条交易或寻找中长期配置机会。关注黄金、石油、 美元同涨时流动性抽紧风险，以及石油波动率下降作为介入信号。 2026 年宏观环境复杂，PPI 是决定人民币与人民币资产表现的关键变量， 关联名义增长、企业盈利与投资回报率。地产调整后，名义增长企稳通 常先于地产企稳。 CPI 转正核心驱动是供需再平衡，而非上游价格单向带动。上市公司数 据显示，投资回报率、资本周转率、产能利用率等多项指标在 2025 年 三季度见底。 Q&A 在 PPI 转正预期下，"HELLO（Halo）板块"的定义是什么，核心配置逻辑 是什么 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4183 | 0.47 | 4.15 | 2.46 | | 深证综指 | 2745 | -0.68 | 4.95 | 2.41 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.31 | 1.9 | 4.08 | | 中盘指数 | 0.13 | 8.01 | 22.39 | | 小盘指数 | -0.68 | 6.68 | 18.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油服工程 | 11.58 | 27.37 | 59.71 | | 贵金属 | 10.24 | 8.83 | 78.57 | | 炼化及贸易 | 6.96 | 14.25 | 35.96 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 6.45 | 8.05 | 123.89 | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058%，环比减少0.91个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工 率为2%，环比减少7.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为5%， 环比减少10.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为34.57元/吨，环比减少25.00%，周度山东地 炼延迟焦化利润为176.2071元/吨，环 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is poised for growth, with strong pricing power and an improving industry landscape. It has been restructuring its revenue sources, significantly increasing the share of non-residential and overseas income [5][8]. - The waterproofing industry has undergone significant changes over the past five years, with a shift in demand structure and an increase in market concentration. The company is expected to benefit from these trends [8][43]. - The company's financial performance is projected to recover, with expected revenue growth and improved profit margins in the coming years [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1996, the company specializes in comprehensive waterproofing solutions, covering various sectors including construction waterproofing, civil materials, and energy solutions. It has participated in major national projects [18]. - The company has a stable governance structure, with concentrated ownership among key stakeholders [20]. Industry Changes - The demand structure in the waterproofing industry has shifted, with non-residential applications gaining importance and the share of second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly [44][50]. - The industry has seen a significant reduction in competition, with market consolidation occurring faster than in other segments of the real estate chain [54]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to recover from a projected decline in 2025, with estimates of 6.22 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 6.67 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.16 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, with a forecasted increase to 28.1% in 2026 and 29.7% in 2027, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin products [6][10]. Investment Analysis - The company's valuation is currently below that of comparable companies in the consumer building materials sector, suggesting potential for upside as the market recovers [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong pricing power and willingness to increase prices, which could enhance profitability as market conditions improve [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - North New Building Materials experienced a stock price decline of 2.02% on February 12, with a current price of 28.20 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 48.003 billion CNY [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, North New Building Materials' stock price has increased by 12.94%, but it has decreased by 3.69% over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has shown a 10.24% increase over the last 20 days and a 16.29% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, North New Building Materials reported a revenue of 19.905 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.586 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.77% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of February 10, the number of shareholders for North New Building Materials was 57,000, a decrease of 3.39% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.51% to 29,640 shares [2] Group 4: Dividend and Institutional Holdings - Since its A-share listing, North New Building Materials has distributed a total of 9.562 billion CNY in dividends, with 3.979 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 160 million shares, a decrease of 17.069 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the company faces a clear dichotomy between success and failure, as articulated by Chairman Li Weiguo, who emphasizes a strong commitment to the company's development and outlines ambitious targets for growth in the waterproofing and mortar sectors [1][3]. Industry Analysis - The real estate growth era is ending, shifting focus to renovation demands, which currently account for about 50% of residential needs and are expected to rise to 70% by 2030 [3]. - The price wars among waterproofing and coating companies have subsided, but profitability recovery requires proactive measures [3]. Company Strategy - The company is moving away from a high accounts receivable model reliant on large clients, adopting a balanced development approach between retail and engineering channels [3]. - Actions include activating idle real estate and stock assets, divesting non-core businesses, and reducing financial leverage to stabilize the core team and mitigate risks [3][4]. Operational Initiatives - The company has set specific annual targets: 1 billion square meters of waterproofing membrane and over 20 million tons of mortar sales by 2026, with actionable steps to achieve these goals [5]. - Production capacity is being enhanced, with the launch of a high-performance industrial coating project and successful production lines in Saudi Arabia [5][6]. Market Expansion - The company has secured nearly 700 million yuan in orders and established strategic partnerships to broaden retail channels [6]. - Internationally, the company has won high-end projects in Cambodia and formed strategic collaborations in Indonesia and Vietnam, expanding its global footprint [6]. Cultural Commitment - The company emphasizes a culture of unwavering determination, translating the concept of "absolute commitment" into actionable strategies and collective efforts across all levels [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, Oriental Yuhong faces a critical juncture, emphasizing a decisive shift in strategy to either succeed or fail, as articulated by Chairman Li Weiguo in his article "Absolute Determination" [1] Group 1: Market Research and Retail Strategy - Li Weiguo highlights the necessity of thorough market research, stating that even selling a single product requires utmost effort, reflecting a clear understanding of market challenges [2] - The company has implemented the "Rainbow People Plan" to enhance retail partnerships and penetrate grassroots markets, achieving significant revenue from retail channels, which accounted for 84.06% of total revenue by mid-2025 [4] Group 2: Core Business Performance - Oriental Yuhong has achieved record production levels in its core business areas, with waterproof membrane shipments exceeding 700 million square meters and mortar sales increasing by 50% year-on-year to over 1.2 million tons [5] - The company’s subsidiary, Tiandingfeng, has also set a new daily shipping record of 4.43 million square meters, showcasing strong production capabilities [5] Group 3: New Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into new markets, particularly in functional coatings, with the launch of fireproof coatings and successful certification for corrosion-resistant products, enhancing its product portfolio [7] - The industrial coatings and sealing materials project is in the final stages of production, targeting high-end manufacturing and marine engineering sectors [8] Group 4: Globalization Efforts - Oriental Yuhong's globalization strategy has led to significant achievements, including a 42.16% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue and a ranking of 53rd in the "2025 Global Top 100 Building Materials Companies" [9] - The company has moved beyond simple product exports to localized operations, establishing a presence in 18 countries and forming strategic partnerships in South Asia and Latin America [11]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Keshun Co., Ltd. shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, indicating potential challenges in the company's operations and market conditions [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of January 20, Keshun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.703 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.43% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 20.088 million yuan, down 84.08% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 6.92 billion yuan, with 5.36 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 2: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of February 6, Keshun Co., Ltd. had a total of 29,600 shareholders, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.45% to 29,965 shares [2]. - On February 6, the company experienced a financing buy-in of 29.2335 million yuan, with a net financing outflow of 520,700 yuan, indicating a high level of trading activity [1]. Group 3: Business Operations - Keshun Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of new building waterproof materials, as well as providing waterproof engineering construction services [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes waterproof membranes (51.11%), waterproof coatings (27.10%), waterproof engineering construction (17.31%), and other products (2.61%) [1].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai government has initiated a pilot program for purchasing second-hand housing, with expectations for further policy support [3] - The report indicates that the effective investment policies discussed in the State Council meeting will focus on infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries, aiming to promote significant projects [3] - The report notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various supportive measures being implemented, including tax reductions and subsidies for home purchases [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and improved purchasing power [6] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 329.1 CNY/ton, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 15.3% year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1105.7 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week but up 2.8% year-on-year [20][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index both fell by 1.27%, while the construction materials index rose by 0.7% [5][55] - Sub-sectors such as glass manufacturing (+5.32%) and cement products (+4.74%) performed well, while fiberglass manufacturing (-1.81%) and refractory materials (-3.24%) saw declines [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes increasing allocations to high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials and anticipates price increases in electronic fabrics due to shortages [2][3]. - Consumer building materials are highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to significant supply exits, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 97% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum boards, and 77% for cement in 2024 compared to their peak levels [3]. - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain, suggesting a shift in demand dynamics and growth opportunities in these areas [7]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement shipments have seen a slight month-on-month increase, while glass inventory continues to decline [6]. - In late January, cement demand showed slight recovery due to warmer weather in southern regions, with a shipment rate of approximately 32% in key domestic areas, up by 3 percentage points [6][23]. Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stock chain, African chain, and AI chain. The stock chain is expected to see a qualitative change in demand, with home renovation demand projected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030 [7]. - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for leading companies such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [7]. - The AI chain focuses on the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with significant opportunities for domestic replacements in low CTE and low-Dk products [7]. Electronic Fabrics - The report is optimistic about price increases in electronic fabrics due to dual demand dynamics, with AI electronic fabrics benefiting from high demand and ordinary electronic fabrics facing supply constraints [5]. - The shortage of weaving machines is expected to continue, leading to sustained price increases [5]. Cement and Glass Market - The report notes that the national average price of cement is 349.84 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74 yuan [24]. - The national average price of glass is reported at 63.11 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.50 yuan [36].