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石油沥青日报:成本端支撑仍存,基本面矛盾暂有限-20250624
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 05:12
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side of asphalt still has support, and the fundamental contradictions are currently limited. The overall supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory levels. The rise in the futures price is mainly driven by the crude oil side, and the market may face repeated disturbances due to the unclear Middle - East situation [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is to expect a sideways - to - bullish trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict situation [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 23, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,781 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.8% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 311,332 lots, a net increase of 26,819 lots, and the trading volume was 317,501 lots, a net increase of 64,215 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,980 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,760 - 4,030 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton in South China; 3,680 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in the Northwest remained stable, while prices in other regions rose to varying degrees [1]. - Affected by the conflict in the Middle - East, oil prices remained strong, providing cost support for asphalt. The overall supply - demand of asphalt was weak, and inventory was low. Terminal demand in the South was suppressed by rainy weather, while there was some support from rigid demand in the North. At the end of the month, the spot resources in the market tightened, but downstream buyers were still cautious about high - priced resources [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways - to - bullish, pay attention to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict situation. - Inter - delivery spread: No recommendation. - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation. - Futures - cash: No recommendation. - Options: No recommendation [2]