1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of short - selling on rallies for asphalt. Due to increased supply, weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices, and restricted demand, the asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to short - sell on rallies. Last week, the asphalt production start - up rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2686000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 273000 tons (11.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 683000 tons (34.1%). The downstream industry start - up rate rose, but road asphalt construction is still at the lowest level in recent years due to capital and weather. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 31.10% to 313600 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio decreased but remains at the lowest level in recent years. This week, production will increase, but demand is affected by weather and capital. With increased supply surplus and falling crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the asphalt futures price is expected to decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures 2511 contract fell 1.20% to 3373 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3364 yuan/ton and a high of 3395 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4519 to 231822 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract rose to 127 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt production start - up rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) continued to decline. As of the week of September 19, the downstream industry start - up rate rose, but road asphalt construction is still at the lowest level in recent years due to capital and weather. In August, the social financing scale increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock slowed down [4] Inventory - As of the week of September 19, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 14.5%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]