Workflow
沥青期货投资策略
icon
Search documents
沥青策略:沥青空单暂时止盈离场
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 10:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. As the asphalt futures price has dropped to the lower edge of the shock range and the OPEC+ meeting on the weekend has a significant impact, it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In September, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). The downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined this week, and the national shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cost support of asphalt has weakened, and it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2510 fell 0.91% to 3,467 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,441 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,035 to 54,826 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 53 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the production rates of some major refineries in South China and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. From January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. As of the week of September 5, the downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined, and the road asphalt construction rate decreased by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5% week-on-week, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [4] Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.5% compared with the week of August 29, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]