Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the global energy supply and the US hegemony [4][5]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the oil market is severe. The release of strategic oil reserves cannot fully cover the supply gap caused by the possible obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a sharp rise in oil prices [4][5]. - The US stock market is under pressure. The Nasdaq futures have broken through key levels, and the decline in the US stock market may have a negative impact on US consumption [5]. - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is in a downward trend due to the US's continuous wrong policies [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy - Trump said on the 29th that Iran had agreed to "most of the content" of the cease - fire "15 - point plan" [3][4]. - Iran plans to require ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to obtain permission from Iran and pay corresponding fees, following the management models of Turkey and Egypt [3][4]. - The probability of the conflict continuing until June is as high as 40%. If this happens, oil prices may exceed $200, and US gasoline may soar to $7 per gallon [4]. - The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release speed is no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [4][5]. - The S&P 500 index has fallen for five consecutive weeks, the Goldman Sachs panic index has reached 9.2 points and has been in the panic zone for 17 consecutive days, and hedge funds have been net sellers for six consecutive weeks [3]. - The Nasdaq futures have broken through key levels, and the decline in US stocks may have a negative impact on US consumption [5]. - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is in a downward trend [5]. Oil Market - The oil market needs to "destroy" a demand scale of at least 8 million barrels per day, and price surges will play a decisive role [3]. - Under the background of the continuous obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil may break through the 2008 historical high of $147.50 per barrel [4]. - In the benchmark scenario, Brent oil prices may rise to $120 per barrel in the short term, and if the supply interruption continues, oil prices may soar to $180 - 210 per barrel [4]. - Traders in the current environment face extremely high risks, and the macro - risks have caused a "career - level" impact [4].