Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised the net profit forecasts for China Merchants Energy (01138) by 11% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting higher freight rates [1] - The target price for China Merchants Energy's Hong Kong stock has been increased by 48% to HKD 16, while the target price for its A-shares has been raised by 10% to RMB 18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that international freight rates still have further upside potential due to the exit of shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels, which will keep effective capacity below market expectations [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that China Merchants Energy is expected to benefit from the current rise in freight rates, with an assumption that oil transportation from Venezuela will shift from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets [1] - In extreme scenarios, if sanctions on Russian or Iranian oil are fully lifted, it could accelerate the exit of shadow fleet capacity, as unsanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleet transportation [1] - Currently, 18% and 16% of the total tanker capacity, measured by deadweight tonnage, belongs to shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets respectively, according to data from Clarksons and S&P Global [1]