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指数暴涨,期权大跌,“怪事”之下有机会
对冲研投· 2025-10-09 07:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual performance of index call options in the context of a significant rise in major indices, particularly highlighting the disparity between the index movements and the performance of call options, indicating a potential mispricing in the options market [5][7][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - Following the holiday, precious metals became a focal point in overseas trading, while the A-share market showed positive momentum with major indices, including the Sci-Tech 50 Index, surging over 5% [5]. - Despite the strong performance of the indices, the index call options did not reflect this bullish sentiment, with significant declines observed in out-of-the-money options [7][10]. Group 2: Implied Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility (IV) of index options decreased significantly during the day, contrary to the expected increase due to the underlying index's rise, suggesting a re-pricing of risk premiums that were inflated before the holiday [10][12]. - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF options were noted to be relatively expensive, indicating a potential for mid-term convergence in IV, while the 300 ETF options were priced at a lower IV, suggesting a different market sentiment [12][14]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Investors looking to capitalize on potential macro volatility around the upcoming conference on October 22-23 may find better opportunities in the 50 and 300 index options due to their current pricing dynamics [16]. - Conversely, for those aligned with the prevailing market sentiment that anticipates a decrease in volatility, the Sci-Tech 50 index options may present a strategic opportunity, contingent on the market's emotional response in the following days [17].