点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年进入秋季以来，随着气温逐渐下降，各地流感病例呈现明显上升态势，今年流感疫情可能呈现比以 往年份更加严峻的态势。流感病原学监测结果也与往年有明显区别，2025年第44周，共检测流感样病例检 测标本20321份，其中阳性标本以A(H3N2)为主。流行毒株相较往年有所变化，这可能增加突破群体免疫 屏障的风险。虽因毒株变迁、群体免疫等因素，无法提前预测呼吸道病毒感染会否流行，但流感流行趋势 形成后往往会延续数周，我们提示2025年流感大年风险。 近期流感疫情上升态势明显，可能引发社会公众和市场关注度的提升，从而带动防治和检测流感产品的需 求增长。建议关注流感疫苗、病毒检测、感冒药与特效药等方面的投资机会，此外也建议关 ...

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy should focus on "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a potential increase in easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor the implementation of policies supporting personal credit repair, as credit policy remains a key focus area [1] - The central bank's concerns regarding the RMB exchange rate have lessened, with a greater emphasis on the positive impact of exchange rate stability on the economy and markets [1] Industry Research - The gradual improvement of the capacity electricity price mechanism is a continuous benefit for the energy storage industry. Inner Mongolia maintains a high level of energy storage subsidies, ensuring considerable energy storage installation growth in the coming year [2] - The market has high expectations for domestic energy storage installations next year, with a focus on monitoring the production of energy storage cells in December and January, as well as upcoming bidding and installation situations [2] - The overall industry remains in a state of sustained prosperity, with investment opportunities particularly in energy storage system integrators, PCS companies, and tight supply-demand segments within the energy storage cell supply chain [2] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of $1.324 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of $74 million, up 9% year-on-year. The net profit forecast for 2025 is maintained at $171 million [4] - The company has made substantial progress in the high-speed interconnect field, gaining customer recognition, which is expected to drive accelerated growth in its data center business. The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 23% and 29% to $297 million and $400 million, respectively [4] - The company is anticipated to continue benefiting from the growth in AI data centers and automotive cable demand, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] Health Sector Insights - There is a noticeable increase in flu-like cases, which may heighten public and market interest, potentially driving demand for flu vaccines, virus testing, and related medications [3]

Core Viewpoint - The peak of influenza cases in China is expected to occur in mid to late December this year and early January next year, with the H3N2 subtype dominating the current flu activity [2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall influenza activity in China is currently on the rise, with the H3N2 subtype accounting for over 95% of cases, alongside a small presence of H1N1 and B-type influenza viruses [2]. - The China Disease Control and Prevention Center has indicated a significant increase in public awareness regarding flu vaccinations since October, particularly in November, leading to a notable rise in demand orders from local disease control centers compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Company Insights - Hualan Biological Engineering, through its subsidiary Hualan Vaccine Co., is the largest producer of influenza vaccines in China, with an annual production capacity of 100 million doses [2]. - The company has maintained a leading position in both production and sales of influenza vaccines since the introduction of the first quadrivalent influenza vaccine in 2018, emphasizing high-quality products [2]. - Hualan Biological has committed to high standards of vaccine quality control and stability monitoring, ensuring the provision of high-quality and competitively priced vaccine products [3].

据央视新闻，在国家疾控局今天（10日）举行的新闻发布会上，中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病所研究员王大燕介绍，预计今年秋冬季我国流 感疫情高峰可能出现在12月中下旬和1月初。 监测数据显示，往年开始进入流感流行季的时间一般都是在10-11月，个别年度也有9月份开始，流行高峰一般出现在12月中下旬和1月 初。依托中国流感监测系统，疾控部门对各地流感活动实时开展监测预警和风险评估，当前我国总体流感活动属于上升阶段，甲型H3N2亚 型占比超过95%，有少量甲型H1N1和乙型流感病毒同期流行。 目前，全国流感总体处于中流行水平，各省份的流行强度有所区别，有23个省份处于中流行水平，其他省份处于低流行水平，大致来看，南 方省份流感活动高于北方。本次流行季前期将以甲型H3N2亚型为主流行，甲型H1N1和乙型流感病毒共同流行，不同型别和亚型在各地区 的比例会有所不同，仍为季节性流行水平，流行强度近期还将进一步上升。 ...

在国家疾控局今天（10日）举行的新闻发布会上，中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病所研究员王大燕介绍， 预计今年秋冬季我国流感疫情高峰可能出现在12月中下旬和1月初。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 目前，全国流感总体处于中流行水平，各省份的流行强度有所区别，有23个省份处于中流行水平，其他 省份处于低流行水平，大致来看，南方省份流感活动高于北方。本次流行季前期将以甲型H3N2亚型为 主流行，甲型H1N1和乙型流感病毒共同流行，不同型别和亚型在各地区的比例会有所不同，仍为季节 性流行水平，流行强度近期还将进一步上升。 监测数据显示，往年开始进入流感流行季的时间一般都是在10-11月，个别年度也有9月份开始，流行高 峰一般出现在12月中下旬和1月初。依托中国流感监测系统，疾控部门对各地流感活动实时开展监测预 警和风险评估，当前我国总体流感活动属于上升阶段，甲型H3N2亚型占比超过95%，有少量甲型H1N1 和乙型流感病毒同期流行。 ...

2025.11. 08 本文字数：575，阅读时长大约1分钟 封图 | 5月15日，在日本东京，行人通过东京站附近的一处人行横道。来源：新华社 日本厚生劳动省7日发布的数据显示，截至11月2日的一周内，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构共报告 流感病例逾5.7万例，新确诊病例数较前一周翻番。 最新数据显示，10月27日至11月2日，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构总计报告流感病例57424例， 平均每家报告14.9例，每周新增病例数已连续11周增加。 推荐阅读 根据日本的标准，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告流感病例数超过1，就标志着进入流感流行季，如 果这个数值超过10，就达到"注意"级别，比"警报"低一级。照此标准，日本全国47个都道府县中已 有25个达到"注意"级别。 中方向日方提出严正交涉和强烈抗议 从地域来看，宫城县、神奈川县和埼玉县流感疫情较为严重，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告病例数 均接近30，即"警报"级别。 受流感扩散影响，截至11月2日，日本全国共有2307所保育园、幼儿园、中小学全校停课或部分年 级、班级停课。 日本厚生劳动省于10月3日宣布全国进入流感季，较去年提早约一个月。今年该国流感季开始时间为 1 ...

3 0 0 9 5 0，终 资 产 重 组！ 从地域来看，宫城县、神奈川县和埼玉县流感疫情较为严重，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报 告病例数均接近30，即"警报"级别。 受流感扩散影响，截至11月2日，日本全国共有2307所保育园、幼儿园、中小学全校停课或 部分年级、班级停课。 日本厚生劳动省于10月3日宣布全国进入流感季，较去年提早约一个月。今年该国流感季开始 时间为1999年启用现行统计方法以来的"第二早"。 止 重 大 来源：新华社 日本厚生劳动省7日发布的数据显示，截至11月2日的一周内，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构 共报告流感病例逾5.7万例，新确诊病例数较前一周翻番。 最新数据显示，10月27日至11月2日，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构总计报告流感病例 57424例，平均每家报告14.9例，每周新增病例数已连续11周增加。 根据日本的标准，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告流感病例数超过1，就标志着进入流感流行 季，如果这个数值超过10，就达到"注意"级别，比"警报"低一级。照此标准，日本全国47个 都道府县中已有25个达到"注意"级别。 ...

日本厚生劳动省7日发布的数据显示，截至11月2日的一周内，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构共报告流感 病例逾5.7万例，新确诊病例数较前一周翻番。 （文章来源：新华社） 从地域来看，宫城县、神奈川县和埼玉县流感疫情较为严重，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告病例数均 接近30，即"警报"级别。 受流感扩散影响，截至11月2日，日本全国共有2307所保育园、幼儿园、中小学全校停课或部分年级、 班级停课。 日本厚生劳动省于10月3日宣布全国进入流感季，较去年提早约一个月。今年该国流感季开始时间为 1999年启用现行统计方法以来的"第二早"。 最新数据显示，10月27日至11月2日，日本全国数千家定点医疗机构总计报告流感病例57424例，平均每 家报告14.9例，每周新增病例数已连续11周增加。 根据日本的标准，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告流感病例数超过1，就标志着进入流感流行季，如果 这个数值超过10，就达到"注意"级别，比"警报"低一级。照此标准，日本全国47个都道府县中已有25个 达到"注意"级别。 ...

Core Insights - Japan is experiencing a significant increase in flu cases, with over 9,000 reported cases from October 6 to 12, marking a 1.5 times increase from the previous week and 2.65 times from the same period last year [1] Group 1: Flu Cases and Trends - A total of 9,073 flu cases were reported across more than 3,800 designated medical institutions in Japan during the week of October 6 to 12 [1] - The average number of cases reported per institution was 2.36, indicating a rising trend in flu cases for eight consecutive weeks [1] - Approximately two-thirds of Japan's 47 prefectures have entered the flu season, as defined by the standard of reporting more than one case per institution [1] Group 2: Impact on Education - The flu outbreak has led to the closure of 998 educational institutions, including nurseries, kindergartens, and schools, either fully or partially [1] - In the week of October 6 to 12 alone, 328 educational institutions reported closures or partial closures due to the flu [1] - The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced the start of the flu season on October 3, which is five weeks earlier than in 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Japan has reported over 6,000 cases of influenza virus infections, leading to the closure of more than 100 schools, marking the country’s entry into a pandemic phase [1][3] - The current influenza outbreak in Japan is unusual in scale and may trigger similar outbreaks in other Asian and European countries as winter approaches [1][3] Group 1: Current Situation - As of October 10, Japan has reported over 6,000 influenza virus infections, resulting in the closure of over 100 schools [1] - The influenza pandemic has been recognized when the number of infections in a specific area exceeds expected levels [1] Group 2: Factors Contributing to the Outbreak - The influenza season has started approximately five weeks earlier than usual, likely due to increased international travel, climate change, and a lack of exposure to circulating viruses, particularly among the elderly and children [3] - Malaysia has also reported a large-scale influenza outbreak, with nearly 6,000 students confirmed infected, prompting emergency school closures [3] Group 3: Virus Strain and Transmission - The current influenza outbreak may be driven by the H3N2 strain, which has surged in Australia and New Zealand over the past two months [3] - Increased travel between Australia and Japan has heightened the risk of virus transmission between the hemispheres [3] Group 4: Public Health Recommendations - The Chinese CDC has established a nationwide influenza virus monitoring network and recommends the public to get vaccinated as the weather cools [4] - Vaccination is considered the most effective and economical method to prevent influenza, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children [4]